000
FXUS61 KOKX 020010
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
810 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region tonight will be in control into much
of next week. A cold front may approach late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast remains on track this hour with just minor
adjustments made to the database to reflect current observations.
The previous discussion follows.
High pressure will be over the area tonight providing
subsidence resulting in clear skies. Deep layer ridge building
takes place for the first half of the night, followed by a pause
in height rises late at night and into the early morning as the
ridge gets temporarily subdued due to a shortwave attempting to
impinge on the ridge back to our northwest. It will be another
comfortable sleeping night with low humidity as dew points will
be mainly in the lower and middle 50s. Actual temps should
bottom out in the lower and middle 50s in the cooler more rural
locations with light and variable winds, with lower 60s for min
temps in the metro.
The holiday weekend begins on a pleasant note with comfortable
humidity levels and mainly clear skies. Look for some high cirrus
clouds later in the day as a shortwave well to the northwest moves
east. With high pressure generally overhead, the synoptic flow will
be light. In place will be mainly a light synoptic SW flow. Some
minor sea breeze boundaries will form towards early afternoon, and
may result in more of a pure southerly component for south facing
shore lines in all likelihood during the afternoon. The onshore flow
will only get dew point readings into the upper 50s closer to the
coast, so still fairly comfortable. Daytime max temps will get to
around 80 or lower 80s in the metro, mostly upper 70s further east
at the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With a dry air mass in place and the lack of any low level moisture,
look for mainly mid and upper level clouds towards evening and into
Saturday night. There may be a period later at night where mostly
cloudy skies take place with clouds getting as low as 10-15 kft
across northern most sections. The region will be on the southern
extent of any influence from this shortwave feature, thus any
dynamics with the shortwave feature will stay up to the north, thus
the stretch of dry weather will continue. The expectation is just
for some mid and high level clouds as the shortwave feature rides
north of the area Saturday night into early Sunday.
The current thinking has any mid and upper clouds exiting Sunday
morning as the shortwave pushes east, with a mainly sunny day taking
shape. A light WSW to SW flow will be in place as heights begin to
rise once again into Sunday afternoon and night. Global guidance
has 5 kft temps getting to about 18 Celsius. This yields mainly upper
80s to around 90 for western sections, and about 5 degrees cooler
closer to the shore to the east. Thus it turns noticeably warmer and
a bit more humid by Sunday afternoon. The ridge edges in further
Sunday night with a more typical summer night as dew points should
be mainly in the middle and upper 60s and min temps noticeably
warmer than the past several nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term is largely dominated by a large high pressure system
that traverses the area through the middle of next week.
Monday will be the warmest day of the week as a ridge sets up over
the area. Meanwhile, TC Idalia will get trapped in the upper level
ridge and become cut off from the flow over the Western Atlantic.
This may result in the system retrograding toward the East Coast by
the middle of the week. At a minimum this will keep mid- level
height lower and will limit the temperatures from becoming
excessively hot. Despite this, temperatures through the middle of
the week are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average with highs
in the middle 80s to lower 90s through Thursday. Confidence in the
exact track and strength of this ocarinas is still low. The NBM
was putting out higher dewpoints than what I was aiming for, so
I lowered them, particularly for the Tuesday-Wednesday
timeframe. However, this could change. If dewpoints end up being
higher than forecasted, a heat advisory may be necessary, but
for now the heat index is forecasted low enough to where this
may not be necessary.
There remains substantial uncertainty in the strength and
positioning of TC Idalia and how it interacts with an approaching
shortwave toward the end of the week as it becomes reintroduced to
the flow. This interaction will impact the sensible weather for late
in the week. However, an approaching trough from the west likely
brings a low pressure system near the area by late in the week or
for next weekend. This looks to be the next best chance for
precipitation for the area.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or http/www.nhc.noaa.gov
for the latest NHC forecasts on post tropical cyclone Idalia and
other tropical cyclones.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure overhead shifts to the south on Saturday.
VFR through the TAF period.
Winds have become light and variable this evening, except
becoming at the NYC metro terminals where S/SE winds of 5-10 kts
continue, but should relax over the next couple of hours. Winds
then increase from the SW Saturday morning, with sea breezes
developing during the afternoon. Winds remain S/SW Saturday
evening 5-10 kts.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday-Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Small craft advisories have been allowed to expire as of 8pm as
observations show seas less than 5 ft. Seas will continue to
settle in at 3 to 4 ft primarily going into and through the
weekend with Sub small craft conditions prevailing. Afterwards,
Sub small craft conditions are expected across all the waters
through Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts are expected for the forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Long period SE swells from distant TC Franklin continue on the ocean
front waters. At this time will forecast a moderate risk of rip
currents, which may be briefly high in the morning. The
forecast may be increased to high with a later forecast update.
There is also a moderate risk of rip currents on Sunday.
After a close run-in with coastal flood benchmarks one more time
this evening for the western south shore bays of Queens and Nassau,
have continued with coastal flood statements for this evening`s high
tide cycle here. Have held off on any statements for Fairfield, CT
/ western LI Sound, however would not be surprised in the Stamford
gauge briefly touches or gets close, with other gauges likely to
fall just short. The risks for minor coastal flooding diminishes
further on Saturday and into the weekend with the loss of longer
period swells and being further out in time from the higher astro
tides.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...JE/DBR
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...JE/BR/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...