000
FXUS61 KOKX 021122
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
722 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of a couple of weak upper level disturbances tonight
and again on Monday, high pressure will generally be in control
through the middle of next week. A cold front may approach late
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments made to forecast for this update to account
for latest observations and trends.
After a chilly start to the day with temperatures several
degrees below normal, highs today will get back close to normal
with readings this afternoon getting into the upper 70s to lower
80s. This combined with low humidity and plenty of sun will
make for a pleasant start to the holiday weekend.
Surface high pressure builds offshore today with a light W/SW
flow this morning becoming S/SW around 10 mph this afternoon
with local seabreeze enhancements. Aloft, a shortwave trough
north of the Great Lakes races across eastern Canada with
pressure falls. This will tighten up the pressure gradient a bit
with warmer air in a westerly flow rounding the top of the
upper ridge and working east from the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley states.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A decent shortwave trough rounds the upper ridge this evening
and tracks across the Northeast. This should do little more
than increase mid and high level clouds through the first half
of tonight. Airmass is real dry and don`t expect any showers
with this disturbance, but couldn`t rule out a sprinkle across
the Lower Hudson Valley and interior SW CT. HRRR reflectivity is
the most pronounced with this but even then not talking about
much.
Heights once again build on Sunday with an even warmer day on
tap with highs getting well into the 80s for most locations and
even around 90 from for the NYC metro area, especially for urban
areas of NJ. Low-level moisture will come up some as dew points
get into the lower/mid 60s. Heat index values will be right
around the air temperature. Readings will be about 5 to 8
degrees above normal. It will also become noticeably more humid
heading into Sunday night.
Monday could very well be the warmest day of next week, but
there is some uncertainty going forward with a cutoff low over
the western Atlantic limiting the eastern extent of warm air
moving into the region. Highs on Monday away from the immediate
coast will get well into the 80s with the lower 90s across much
of the interior and the NYC metro. Heat index values will be
closing in on 95 for much of the metro area, especially across
NE NJ. However, chances for a heat advisory at this time remain
low as heat index values are marginal Monday into Tuesday. In
addition, there could be another round of mid and high level
clouds to start the day Monday as another shortwave drops
across the Northeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes were made to the long term forecast and
generally followed the latest model consensus.
The main story for much of the week will be continued warmer than
normal temperatures. Upper level ridging will remain over the
eastern states Monday night through Wednesday. An upper level closed
low/trough over the Western Atlantic will attempt to retrograde
westward. Recent trends in the deterministic runs and ensemble means
have trended towards keeping the majority of the upper low offshore.
This should prevent the ridge from centering itself over the region.
There is still a fair amount of model differences regarding how far
west the upper low/trough will retrograde. The ridge should begin to
weaken by Thursday as a shortwave begins to approach from the Great
Lakes region. This shortwave should send the next cold front towards
the area during the end of the week, which brings the next chance at
showers.
The warmest days appear to be Tuesday and Wednesday as highs should
reach the upper 80s to low 90s across NE NJ, NYC metro, Lower Hudson
Valley, and interior Southern Connecticut. Temperatures look
slightly lower across Long Island and coastal Connecticut due to
more of an onshore wind each afternoon. The atmosphere will remain
rather dry and there is no strong push of low level moisture. Dew
points will still reach the middle and upper 60s making it feel more
humid. They should also level off or mix out in the afternoon in the
normally warmer spots which will cap off maximum heat index values.
generally in the lower 90s. If dew points end up higher than the
heat index could reach 95 degrees. Thursday will still be above
normal, but the current model consensus has highs a few degrees
lower and mainly in the middle to upper 80s. Long Island and coastal
Connecticut will remain cooler in the lower 80s. A slightly stronger
southerly flow may help boost dew points closer to 70 degrees, so
max indices may still reach the upper lower 90s in the warmest
spots. Temperatures should continue to trend down at the end of the
week with the aforementioned shortwave and approaching front.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure shifts offshore through tonight.
Light SW flow will increase this morning and then shift to the
S with afternoon sea breezes. A SSE-SE sea breeze is expected
at KEWR. Wind speeds should be 9-13 kt in the afternoon. Winds
likely veer to the SSW-SW tonight and fall under 10 kt. Outlying
terminals should see light and variable winds overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of afternoon S sea breeze (SSE-SE at KEWR) may be off by
1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday-Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas will primarily remain at 3 to 4 ft on the ocean waters
through the weekend with a SW flow 10-15kt. Seas largely being
contributed to by a lingering E/SE swell around 10s. This could
still cause rough conditions around the inlets.
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is forecast through the
middle of next week with conditions remaining below SCA levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SE swells of 3-4ft 9-11s through the holiday weekend will result
in a moderate rip current risk. This will likely continue into
the first half of the week.
The risk for localized minor coastal flooding diminishes
through the weekend with a diminishing swell and decreasing
astro tides.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...