000
FXUS61 KOKX 022001
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
401 PM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of a couple of weak upper level disturbances tonight
and again on Monday, high pressure will generally be in control
through the middle of next week. A cold front may approach late
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure will sink south centering over the southeast
US tonight, while a surface trough and an upper level trough move
through. Forecast soundings continue to show a fair amount of dry
air that needs to be overcome in the mid levels. Generally speaking,
most places will just see an increase in cloud cover tonight thanks
to these troughs. However, if the showers are heavy enough, it may
translate to a sprinkle or very light shower at the surface in some
areas, mainly for the western two-thirds of the forecast area.
Temperatures overnight will not be nearly as chilly as previous
nights as a return southerly flow and a veering wind profile will be
indicative of warm air advection. Additionally, the increased
cloud cover will keep temperatures from falling too much.
Temperatures in many spots will like remain steady or possibly
increase a degree or two right before and around daybreak
Sunday. Lows will be just below normal for this time of year, in
the 60s region wide. Some isolated 50s are possible for the
outlying areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast area will remain on the eastern side of some deep
layered ridging, with the ridge axis over the Ohio River Valley and
then heading northeast into the eastern Great Lakes region and
southern Canada/northern New England. This will prevent any
precipitation from affecting the area through Monday night.
The ridging aloft will mean height rises and for the temperatures to
continue to warm for Monday. Highs on Monday away from the immediate
coast will rise well into the 80s with the lower 90s across much of
the interior and the NYC metro. Humidity levels will be on the
increase, with dew points in the 60s for Monday. Heat index values
will be closing in on 95 for much of the metro area, especially
across NE NJ. However, chances for a heat advisory at this time
continue to remain low as heat index values are marginal Monday and
even lower for Tuesday. There is also added uncertainty in the dew
point forecast as more in the way of mixing will allow dew points to
be lower than what is currently forecast. In addition, there
could be another round of mid and high level clouds to start the
day Monday as another shortwave drops across the Northeast.
Warm conditions Monday night expected, with lows not dropping out of
low 70s, and potentially only falling to the middle 70s if some of
the guidance pans out, which makes sense given the warm and humid
nature of the air mass.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A high amplitude and large subtropical ridge remains along the
eastern states Tuesday and begins to weaken Wednesday as a northern
stream shortwave approaches from the west and an upper closed low
over the northern Atlantic retrogrades. Guidance has come into
better agreement has to how far west this low will track, and
currently is forecast to move as far west as near Nova Scotia and
off the mid Atlantic coast and then become nearly stationary into
late in the week as the shortwave to the west moves into the
northeast and mid Atlantic region by Friday.
Until then, with surface high pressure remaining Tuesday and
weakening Wednesday, a warm airmass will remain in place.
Temperatures will be similar across the region both days, in the mid
80s to lower 90s, and slightly cooler than Monday as 850mb
temperatures will be a couple of degrees lower. However, high
temperatures Tuesday may end up being closer to Monday`s highs as
mixing will be a little deeper. Maximum heat indices may also be a
few degrees lower than Monday`s as drier air mixes to the surface
during the afternoon, at peak heating. And with mixing not as deep
and dew points slightly higher Wednesday`s heat indices may be a
degree or two higher than Tuesday, reaching into the mid 90s across
northeastern New Jersey.
Thursday will still be above normal, but the current model consensus
has highs a few degrees lower and mainly in the mid 80s to
approaching 90 across northeastern New Jersey, as clouds increase
ahead of a cold front, and with afternoon thunderstorms possible
inland. And dew points will remain in the mid to upper 60s as a
southerly flow persists.
Temperatures trend downward Friday and Saturday with increased
clouds and a chance of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
moves through Friday, followed by a secondary cold front Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through TAF period as high pressure shifts offshore.
General SW flow around 10 kt into this evening, except coastal
terminals where sea breeze is backing winds more to the S. Speeds
lighten under 10 kt tonight and return to WSW or SW. Outlying sites
may go light and variable overnight. Similar regime expected Sunday,
W/WSW flow around 10 kt, backing SW or S for coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift with sea breezes may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday-Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Seas will primarily remain at 3 to 4 ft on the ocean waters
through the weekend with a SW flow 10-15kt. Seas largely being
contributed to by a lingering E/SE swell around 10s. This could
still cause rough conditions around the inlets.
With a weak pressure gradient, as high pressure remains in control,
winds and seas will remain below advisory levels across the forecast
waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Long period SE swells of 3-4ft and 9-11s through the holiday weekend
will result in a moderate rip current risk. E to SE swell will
likely continue into the first half of the week, with a moderate rip
current risk possible.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Some daily record highs are in danger of being tied or broken
over the next couple of days. The record highs for these dates
are below.
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
SEP 4 SEP 5
CENTRAL PARK...97 (1929)...94 (1985)
LAGUARDIA......93 (2018)...93 (1985)
JFK............93 (2018)...94 (1961)
ISLIP..........92 (2018)...90 (1985)
NEWARK.........95 (2018)...94 (1985)
BRIDGEPORT.....91 (1973)...91 (1961)-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...