000
FXUS61 KOKX 121148
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will approach late today and move across on
Wednesday. High pressure will build in behind the departing cold
front, remain over the Great Lakes through Friday, then weaken
over the weekend. At the same time, Hurricane Lee is forecast to
pass offshore to our east. A frontal will system approach for
early next week.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or
https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest NHC forecasts on Hurricane
Lee and others.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A mainly dry day is expected today. There is a chance that a few
shwrs could develop mainly ern areas early this mrng with a mid
lvl wave passing thru. Height rises later today, with subsidence
indicated in the models, should limit the development of shwrs
for most of the area by this aftn. Still cannot rule out a few
lgt shwrs or sprinkles due to pockets of instability, but
because of the limiting factors, stuck with the primarily dry
NBM pops.
High temps today progged to be a few degrees abv normal. The
NBM was used.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
An upr low approaching Lake Superior will drive a strong h5 trof
towards the area tngt and Wed. As heights fall, pcpn will
increase from the west early Wed mrng, spreading ewd thru the
day. Moisture transport will bring pwats close to 2 inches on
Wed, setting the stage for locally hvy rainfall and the
potential for some flooding. Best convergence is expected to be
across the wrn 2/3 of the cwa attm, so this area has been
highlighted in the hwo for flooding. A watch may need to be
issued. Elsewhere, although some isold flooding cannot be ruled
out, the primary threat looks to be the potential for strong
winds and even an isold weak tor in the strongest cells. Warm
ssts, a mdt sly onshore flow along with some llvl shear are
often a recipe for pockets of svr. This threat has been
mentioned in the hwo for all areas, although the ern 2/3 of the
area appear to be favored in this scenario attm.
Made some local adjustments to the NBM and used for temps thru
the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The svr/flood threat persists into Wed ngt, mainly the ern half
of the cwa ahead of the cold front. The rain tapers off behind
the front, but the NAM suggests some postfrontal redevelopment
with the rr quad of the jet during the first part of Thu. The
NBM has not caught on to this probability yet, and the 00Z GFS
and ECMWF both keep Thu dry, so did not go with the wetter NAM
attm. This is subject to change through.
Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s advect in on nwly flow Thu and Thu
ngt producing a notable airmass change thru Fri.
For the weekend, NBM pops clip the far ern portion of the CWA on
the periphery of Lee. Otherwise, fair weather can be expected.
WAA starts Mon and Tue, so some chances for a few shwrs. The NBM
with local adjustments was used.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary draped nearby will slowly advance further
east and away from the region today. Another frontal system
approaches tonight, impacting terminals on Wednesday.
Mainly VFR, though MVFR/IFR cigs possible this morning with
patches of fog and low stratus around. Extended TEMPO for low
cigs for most terminals, including the city, until 13Z. LIFR
will be possible at KGON and KHPN. A return to VFR is expected
everywhere by 15Z. Showers move in late in TAF period toward
daybreak Wednesday, bringing a decline in conditions.
Winds are generally light and variable or light from the N or
NW through the morning. Winds gradually shift to the south
during the afternoon as sea breezes develop.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Possible brief MVFR/IFR cigs with fog or stratus through 13Z or so.
Timing of the wind shift to south may be off +/- an hour or two.
A few rumbles of thunder are possible Wed AM and into the
afternoon with SHRA.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: MVFR to IFR at times. Periodic showers. A chance of
thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms taper off at night.
Thursday - Friday: VFR. Northerly wind gusts around 15 to 20 kt
Thursday night through Friday night.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts around 20 to 25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas will continue to build thru the week due to Lee. A sca has
been issued for the ocean Wed as seas hit 5 ft. Seas will remain
abv 5 ft thru at least Fri, and potentially thru the weekend
depending on the exact track and timing of Lee. Unless there is
a dramatic shift from the current official fcst for Lee, winds
are expected to peak at around 30 kt on the ern waters Fri into
Sat. Conditions improve on Sun.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Around an inch of rain is expected for most areas Wed and Wed
ngt. Locally heavier amounts are likely. Areas of minor
flooding can be expected. There is also a chance for flash
flooding, particularly across the wrn 2/3 of the area. Rainfall
rates of over an inch per hour will enhance the threat. A flood
watch may be needed.
There is a chance for another round of heavier rain early Thu,
which if it occurred would produce an additional minor flood
threat. This is a low probability scenario attm, and has not
been included in the fcst attm.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk today, then a high risk
thru the rest of the week as swell continues to build. A high
risk statement has been issued thru Fri, and may need to be
extended thru at least Sat depending on the ultimate track,
intensity and timing of Lee.
A high surf advy may be needed Fri.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from Wednesday morning through Friday
evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...