000
FXUS61 KOKX 140042
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
842 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and wave of low pressure continue to move across
the region, eventually moving entirely east of the region late
tonight. High pressure then builds in on Thursday, remaining
centered to the north and west through Friday, before weakening
over the weekend. At the same time, Hurricane Lee is forecast
to pass offshore to our east. A weak frontal system impacts the
region early next week.

Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or
https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest NHC forecasts on Hurricane
Lee.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The cold front remains within the region, extending from South
Central CT southwest through Central Long Island. East of here
is where there are higher POPs for showers and thunderstorms.
Most of the convection is in the vicinity of New London CT and
the extreme eastern parts of the Twin Forks of Long Island.
Flood watch remains in effect for New London CT until 2AM
Thursday but has been cancelled elsewhere in Southern CT.

CAPE is decreasing so thunderstorms are less probable. Marginal
severe thunderstorm threat will be lowering this evening where
just the extreme eastern areas still remain with the marginal
severe threat. Just a few showers and thunderstorms remain
probable otherwise during this evening but many locations could
just end up being mainly dry. By overnight, would expect all
locations even Eastern Long Island and Southeast CT to be mainly
dry.

Upper level height falls continue as the upper level trough axis
moves in. The surface cold front and low eventually move east of the
area late tonight.

Drying conditions with more northerly flow eventually settles into
the region from west to east late tonight. Dewpoints are
lowering into the 60s. The drier air has considerably decreased
the coverage of convection.

Some cold air advection can be expected late tonight. Lower
temperatures for the lows compared to recent nights, mainly
ranging from the low 50s to low 60s by daybreak Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions expected Thursday through Thursday night with
near normal temperatures.

On Thursday, upper level heights will rise, with a weakening
upper level trough. The trough moves north with most energy as
conveyed by mid level positive vorticity advection. The back end
of the trough approaches. At the surface, the cold front will
move well out into Atlantic with high pressure starting to build
into the local area from the north and west. The high pressure
area will be centered across the Great Lakes.

On Thursday night, upper level heights are more steady, showing
a weakened trough axis along the back end that will be moving
in. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build in
partially but will remain centered across the interior parts of
the Northeast and across the Eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not much change in the long term period and stuck fairly close to
the NBM/official forecast.

On Friday, high clouds start to move into the area in advance of
Lee. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Northerly
winds between inland high pressure and Lee will also be on the
increase to 15G25mph as the pressure gradient increases between
inland high pressure and the outer circulation of Lee.

The strongest winds associated with Lee are expected to arrive
Friday night and continue into Saturday, with winds backing NW on
Sat as the hurricane passes well east. The hurricane`s wind field
will be expanding in size as it moves northward, and winds
especially across coastal SE CT and eastern Long Island could become
strong, sustained 25-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Can`t
rule out tropical storm force winds in those areas right near the
shoreline in areas with a good NW-N exposure.

NBM still bringing some POPs to portions of eastern Long Island and
CT on the periphery of Lee, with only light rainfall amounts
expected.

Lee lifts to the north with mainly dry conditions on Sunday. A cold
front and upper level shortwave will move across the region on
Monday, which may result in a slight chance or isolated shower or
two. Dry conditions return for the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front just east of the NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley
terminals this evening will track slowly east and offshore
during the early morning hours. High pressure centered over the
Great Lakes will then build slowly east through Thursday.

Mainly VFR. A spotty shower cannot be ruled out this evening.

Light and variable winds ahead of the front and light WNW
winds behind it will become NNW overnight and strengthen to
5-10kt. This flow continues on Thursday 10-13 kt with G15-20kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts this evening may be off by 1-2 hours.

Gusts on Thursday may be more occasional than frequent.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Afternoon: VFR. N-NW gusts 15-20 kt.

Thursday Night-Friday Night. VFR. N-NNE wind gusts around 20-25
possible, strongest Friday night.

Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 20-25 kt for NYC metro, western
Long Island and western CT. NW gusts 25-35 kt possible eastern Long
Island and southeast CT.

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory remains in effect for our ocean zones
through Thursday night due to higher seas with SCA wind gusts
developing Thursday night. Non-ocean waters remain mainly below
SCA conditions but wind gusts could occasionally gust to SCA
levels late Thursday night.

Ocean seas will be 8-12 ft Fri morning and peak between 9-14 ft late
Friday evening. Seas will remain high Friday night, then start to
decrease on Saturday as strong offshore flow develops. Seas
eventually drop below 10ft late Saturday, and by Sunday morning,
drop below 5 ft.

Sustained N-NW winds or frequent gusts from Lee could peak at
tropical storm force (35 to 40 kt) Friday night into Saturday,
mainly on the eastern ocean. Elsewhere, SCA conditions likely from
Friday into Saturday, with a few gusts up to 35 kt possible Friday
night/Saturday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Most additional rainfall will be less than a half inch but
locally higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms.

Flood watch remains just for New London CT until 2AM Thursday.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms remain. Flood threat
trends down this evening into overnight as chances for
convection lower.

Otherwise, no hydrological issues are expected through early
next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A high surf advisory and high rip current risk are in effect
through Saturday evening.

For Suffolk and Nassau ocean beaches, large breaking waves of 5
to 7 ft will steadily build to 10 to 15 ft in the surf zone
Friday. For Brooklyn and Queens ocean beaches, large breaking
waves of 5 to 7 ft tonight will steadily build to near 6 to 12
ft in the surf zone Friday.

Beach flooding and erosion increases Thursday through Saturday.
Widespread dune erosion and scattered overwashes are possible
Friday into Saturday. Dangerous rip currents continue through
the weekend.

Any changes to these coastal hazards will be based on the
current fcst track and intensity of Hurricane Lee. Stay tuned to
the latest from the National Hurricane Center regarding the
forecast for Lee.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ008-012.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-178.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ080-081-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//