discussion on 2023-09-14

000
FXUS61 KOKX 141127
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
727 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today, remaining centered to the north and
west through Friday, before weakening over the weekend. At the same
time, Hurricane Lee is forecast to pass well east. A weak
frontal system impacts the region early next week.

Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or
https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest NHC forecasts on
Hurricane Lee.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is on track with only minor changes needed to reflect
current conditions. Previous discussion follows.

Upper level trough over the Northeast U.S. today, with the
trough axis remaining west of the forecast area, as it moves
slightly north. Meanwhile, high pressure builds in at the
surface as the cold front the previously moved through continues
to move east farther out to sea.

Subsidence in association with the high pressure will provide dry
conditions. Cold air advection on a northerly flow will mean much
more comfortable humidity levels as dew points drop into the 50s,
and depending on how well the metro area mixes, possibly into the
upper 40s. Highs will be seasonable, in the 70s region-wide.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The trough weakens as it continues to lift north with Lee`s
approach. The surface high pressure will remain centered north and
west of the area. Some high clouds look to move in late tonight in
association with Lee. This will preclude optimal radiational cooling
for the outlying areas, with lows near normal for the entire area,
ranging from the upper 40s well inland to around 60 along the coast.

On Friday, ridging aloft begins to develop west of the area while
the surface high weakens as it begins to get squeezed between
Lee and a low pressure over south central Canada by Friday
night. Models continue to show and the National Hurricane
Center`s forecast continue to show Lee passing well east of the
area late Friday night into Saturday morning. However, the wind
field is expected to expand as it approaches. Conditions will
become breezy for many locations, mainly east of the Hudson
River. Sustained of 25-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible.
Can`t rule out tropical storm force winds in those areas right
near the shoreline in areas with a good NW-N exposure.

Chances for rain showers come late Friday night in association with
Lee. However, this will be limited to eastern New London County and
the Twin Forks of Long Island. Even here, it is generally a low
end chance. A slight chance is expected from central Long
Island and New Haven county eastward to the aforementioned areas
of chance POPs.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Sunday, the pressure gradient from Lee to our north will
quickly weaken, leading to decreasing wind speeds throughout the day
on Sunday. Winds will start off on Sunday WNW 15-20 mph with some
20-25 mph gusts, then weaken to below 10 mph by Sunday night becoming
southwest.

A weak frontal system is expected to impact us Sunday night into
Monday morning, providing a small chance for precipitation with
isolated thunderstorms in the interior and partly cloudy skies.

Following the frontal system, high pressure will build to the west
and north, leaving the rest of the long term dry and mostly sunny
with highs in the mid/upper-70s.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The cold front has now pushed out of our area and out to sea. High
pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build slowly to our
west through Friday will Hurricane Lee passing to our east far
offshore.

Mainly VFR.

Light WNW winds have followed the front and will gain in speed
as the pressure gradient increases between on offshore low and
high pressure towards the interior. 5-10kt early this morning
becoming 10-14kt with possible 15-20kt gusts in the
afternoon/evening. A temporary weakening of the winds around
10kt is expected tonight before increasing again into Friday
with gusts up to 20kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts today may be more occasional than frequent.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday Night: VFR. N-NNE wind gusts around 20-25kt possible.

Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 20-25 kt for NYC metro, western
Long Island and western CT. NW gusts 25-35 kt possible eastern Long
Island and southeast CT.

Sunday-Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory have been extended in time for the ocean
zones through Saturday due to higher seas with SCA wind gusts
developing tonight. Non-ocean waters remain mainly below SCA
conditions but wind gusts could occasionally gust to SCA levels
late tonight. However, better chances for SCA on the non-ocean
waters late Friday night as wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are
expected. SCAs will likely be issued with the next forecast
package for these areas. Wind gusts of 35 to 40 kt are forecast
across the eastern ocean zone, and a Gale Watch was issued
there for Saturday. The eastern ocean zone could also see gale
gusts Saturday, and a Gale Watch may need to be issued here as
well.

Ocean seas will be 8-12 ft Fri morning and peak between 9-14 ft late
Friday evening. Seas will remain high Friday night, then start to
decrease on Saturday as strong offshore flow develops. Seas
eventually drop below 10ft late Saturday,

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrological issues are expected through early
next week.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high surf advisory and high rip current risk are in effect
through Saturday evening.

For Suffolk and Nassau ocean beaches, large breaking waves of 5
to 7 ft will steadily build to 7 to 12 ft in the surf zone
Friday. For Brooklyn and Queens ocean beaches, large breaking
waves of 5 to 7 ft tonight will steadily build to 7 to 11 ft in
the surf zone Friday.

Beach flooding and erosion increases Thursday through Saturday.
Widespread dune erosion and scattered overwashes are possible
Friday into Saturday. Dangerous rip currents continue through
the weekend.

Any changes to these coastal hazards will be based on the
current fcst track and intensity of Hurricane Lee. Stay tuned to
the latest from the National Hurricane Center regarding the
forecast for Lee.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ353-355.

SYNOPSIS...JP/BR
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JP/BR
HYDROLOGY...JP/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...