discussion on 2023-09-14

000
FXUS61 KOKX 142014
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
414 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure continues to build in tonight and then will remain
centered builds in through tonight, remaining centered to the north
and west into the weekend. At the same time, Hurricane Lee is
forecast to pass well east. A weak wave of low pressure passes
through the area Sunday night, followed by a cold frontal
passage Monday evening. High pressure builds in thereafter and
likely remains in control through the end of next week.

Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or
https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest NHC forecasts on Hurricane
Lee.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --An upper level trough will slowly lift towards the Canadian
Maritimes through Friday. Meanwhile, ridging will build to the
west. The upper level pattern will help steer Lee northward
through Friday, but keep the storm well offshore.

A jet streak will likely help pull high cirrus northward towards
the region, specifically towards eastern Long Island and
possibly SE Connecticut tonight. Otherwise, tonight will be
mostly clear setting the stage for good radiational cooling
conditions for the interior. Lows will be in the upper 40s in
Orange County and lower to middle 50s for most spots away from
the immediate coast and NYC metro. Lows will be closer to 60
degrees at the coast.

Surface high pressure will remain in control on Friday, but more
high clouds are likely to expand north and west through the day.
The surface high will not settle right over the CWA and should
remains centered just to our north and west. The pressure gradient
between the high and offshore Lee steepens allowing for some
breezy northerly winds on Friday. Sustained winds 10-15 mph
with gusts 20- 25 mph are forecast and a few gusts could touch
30 mph towards the east end of Long Island late in the day. The
northerly flow and the small increase in clouds should help keep
temperatures just below normal in the lower 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Lee
about 250-300 miles east of Montauk Friday night into Saturday.
Lee then continues to track north east of the New England
coast.

The wind field is expected to expand as Lee moves northward, but
overall the general trend is for the strongest winds and any
precipitation to remain to the east. N-NW winds will increase Friday
night with potential for 25-30 mph for much of the area east of the
Hudson River. These winds should continue into Saturday, but should
slowly weaken towards evening. The east end of Long Island could
still see a few gusts 35-40 mph, but this could end up more
occasional or limited in coverage.

The atmosphere below 500 mb is very dry and looks to remain that way
through Saturday even for the east end of Long Island and southeast
Connecticut. Based on the official track forecast from NHC,
there does not appear to be much to support saturating the
middle and levels for rain to reach the surface. Have trended
PoPs down with mainly just a slight chance for the forks of Long
Island and southeast Connecticut. If current trends persist,
the area should be dry through Saturday. However, there should
be a good deal of clouds above 500 mb and these could be thick
enough to yield mostly cloudy skies especially late Friday night
into Saturday. The thicker clouds should reside across Long
Island and southern Connecticut.

Low temperatures Friday night look to fall into the 50s to around 60
and then will be near seasonable in the 70s on Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --At the start of Saturday night, the NHC forecast track has Post
Tropical Cyclone Lee located near the southern tip of Nova Scotia.
Lee is then forecast to continue to head northeastward. The pressure
gradient over our area will slowly decrease and a gusty NW wind will
linger through Saturday night. Skies will also slowly clear from
west to east as brief shortwave ridging builds in aloft.

The only shot of any precipitation through next week looks to be
Sunday night through Monday. Heights aloft begin to fall Sunday
morning as an upper level trough approaches. At the surface a weak
wave of low pressure approaches and likely passes over or near the
area. A cold front then follows later Monday evening. With the
placement of the weak low, any instability looks to remain to our
south offshore. The better shot for any thunder is likely Monday
afternoon if we can destabilize ahead of the approaching cold front.

Behind the cold front High pressure builds in. The high settles over
the northeast and will remain in control through the rest of next
week. This will lead to sunny and dry conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains centered northwest of the area with
Hurricane Lee passing well east of the area well out into the
Western Atlantic during the TAF period.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Wind gusts
will be more intermittent this afternoon through tonight but
more frequent on Friday.

Winds will be mainly N to NNE direction during the TAF period
with sustained wind speeds mainly around 8-10 kt through
tonight and then closer to 15 kt for Friday. Intermittent gusts
near 20 kt are forecast this afternoon and tonight. More
frequent gusts in the 20-25 kt range are forecast Friday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

At KJFK, a few gusts to 20 kt possible before 20Z. Gusts may
not occur every hour tonight.

At KLGA, a few gusts to 20 kt possible before 21Z. Gusts may
not occur every hour tonight.

At KEWR, gusts may not occur every hour this afternoon and
tonight.

At KTEB, a few gusts 15-20 kt possible before 20Z and
throughout tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Afternoon: VFR. NNE wind gusts near 20-25 kt.

Friday Night: VFR. N wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt. Wind gusts diminish
Saturday night.

Sunday: VFR.

Sunday Night-Monday: MVFR possible. A chance of showers. A
slight chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon into early
Monday evening.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Have elected to keep the Gale Watch on the ocean waters east
of Moriches Inlet on Saturday. However, the strongest winds may
end up further east. Otherwise, SCA conditions will continue on
the ocean through Saturday with elevated seas and long period
swells occur from offshore Lee. Winds will also increase to SCA
levels on the LI Sound and LI Bays Friday into Friday night.
Have issued a SCA on these waters beginning 04z Saturday and
will continue through 00z Sunday. Waves on the Eastern LI Sound
east of the Mouth of the Connecticut River likely will range
from 5 to 8 ft late Friday through Saturday and 2 to 4 ft on the
rest of the Sound. Ocean seas will range from 8 to 11 ft Friday
morning and then peak 10-13 ft Friday night into Saturday.

Lingering elevated seas as Post Tropical Cyclone Lee continues
north and east into the Canadian Maritimes will likely last
through Saturday night on the ocean waters and eastern Sound.
Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected thereafter
through the end of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --There are no hydrological issues expected through late next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --High surf advisory and high rip current risk continue through
Saturday evening.

For Suffolk and Nassau ocean beaches, large breaking waves will
steadily build to 10 to 16 ft in the surf zone Friday into
Saturday. For Brooklyn and Queens ocean beaches, large breaking
waves will steadily build to 6 to 10 ft in the surf zone Friday
into Saturday. This will cause widespread dune erosion and
scattered overwashes, causing some minor to moderate flooding
to roads and properties on the landward side of the dune.

Coastal flood advisories have been issued for most of the
shoreline, with potential for reasonable worst case water
levels bringing minor coastal flooding of 1 to 2 ft of
inundation for vulnerable shoreline/coastal locations along LI
Sound, the eastern bays of LI and southern bays of LI/NYC. The
most vulnerable locations will be for north facing areas of the
twin forks, Jamaica Bay and Great South Bay exposed to open
waters from a northerly wind fetch.

Due to uncertainty of timing of surge with respect to high
tide, the contribution of wave setup and tidal piling over
several tidal cycles, and the hybrid extra-tropical/tropical
nature of this storm, the forecast has been geared to a
reasonable worst case P-Surge/P-ETSS blended forecast.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for
CTZ009>012.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for
NYZ071-078-079-177.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 3 AM EDT Sunday for
NYZ080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Friday night to 8 PM EDT
Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...JP/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV