000
FXUS61 KOKX 151332
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
932 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered to the north and west of the
area through Saturday night, and weakens Sunday. At the same
time, Hurricane Lee is forecast to pass well east. A wave of low
pressure passes through the area Sunday night, followed by a
cold frontal passage Monday evening. High pressure builds in
thereafter and likely remains in control through the end of next
week.
Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or
https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest NHC forecasts on
Hurricane Lee.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with minor adjustments to sky cover.
An upper level trough lifts toward the Canadian Maritimes today.
Meanwhile, Lee will keeps its northerly track well offshore.
Also, a surface high will remain across the eastern Great Lakes
and into the Ohio Valley. High cirrus clouds from Hurricane Lee
will spread westward into the region. Temperatures will be near
seasonal normals.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Lee
about 275 miles east of Montauk tonight into early Saturday
morning. Lee then continues to track north, east of the New
England coast. The upper ridge to the west builds once again
Saturday, with the surface high in place, keeping Lee well to
the east. While the wind field of Lee is expected to expand as
Lee moves northward, the strongest winds and any precipitation
will remain to the east. There is just a slight chance of
showers Saturday morning across eastern New London CT and into
the twin forks.
The upper ridge and surface high weaken, and shift slowly east,
Sunday as an amplifying trough digs into the Ohio Valley to the
Gulf coast states.
&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The only shot of any precipitation through next week looks to be
Sunday night through Monday. Heights aloft begin to fall Sunday
morning as an upper level trough approaches allowing more clouds to
develop. At the surface a weak wave of low pressure approaches and
likely passes over or near the area. A cold front then follows later
Monday evening. With the placement of the weak low, any instability
looks to remain to our south offshore. The better shot for any
thunder is likely Monday afternoon if we can destabilize ahead of
the approaching cold front, but currently no thunderstorms are
forecasted.
Behind the cold front high pressure builds in. The high settles over
the northeast and will remain in control through the rest of next
week. This will lead to sunny and dry conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The only shot of any precipitation through next week looks to be
Sunday night through Monday. Heights aloft begin to fall Sunday
morning as an upper level trough approaches allowing more clouds to
develop. At the surface a weak wave of low pressure approaches and
likely passes over or near the area. A cold front then follows later
Monday evening. With the placement of the weak low, any instability
looks to remain to our south offshore. The better shot for any
thunder is likely Monday afternoon if we can destabilize ahead of
the approaching cold front, but currently no thunderstorms are
forecasted.
Behind the cold front high pressure builds in. The high settles over
the northeast and will remain in control through the rest of next
week. This will lead to sunny and dry conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to build, remaining centered to the
north and west into the weekend. At the same time, Hurricane Lee
is forecast to pass well east.
VFR. For Friday, winds will be N 10-15kts, up to 18kts at
times. Gusts in the 20-25 kt range are forecast today for all
terminals, with some possibly gusting up to 30kts for eastern
terminals. The gusts may become more intermittent Friday night,
especially at the Lower Hudson Valley terminals. Saturday,
northwesterly gusts will continue through 12Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional than frequent in the morning, becoming
more consistent in the afternoon.
Gusts may either over or underperform depending on the track Lee
takes and how quickly the system devolves into a post-tropical
system.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt for NYC and Lower Hudson
Valley terminals and 25-30 kt for the eastern terminals. Wind
gusts diminish Saturday night.
Sunday: VFR.
Sunday Night-Monday: MVFR possible. A chance of showers.
Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track.
While wind gusts will be marginal at gale force across the
outer area of the ocean zone east of Moriches Inlet during
Saturday, have decided to maintain the Gale Watch at this time.
Wind gusts may trend lower depending on the track of Hurricane
Lee.
A Small Craft Advisory has now been posted for the eastern Long
Island Sound beginning this morning and continuing into
Saturday as long period swells have moved into the waters. And
by Saturday morning the long period swells are expected to move
into the lower New York Harbor, and have posted an advisory
there. Otherwise, the SCAs for the remainder of the forecast
waters continue as were posted as seas remain elevated in long
period swells, with gusty winds. Small craft advisories will
likely be extended into Saturday night as ocean seas remain
elevated.
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria Sunday
through Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues expected through late next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High surf advisory and high rip current risk continue through
Saturday evening.
For Suffolk and Nassau ocean beaches, large breaking waves will
steadily build to 9 to 17 ft in the surf zone today into
Saturday, and for Brooklyn and Queens ocean beaches, large
breaking waves will steadily build to 6 to 11 ft. This will
cause widespread dune erosion and scattered overwashes, causing
some minor to moderate flooding to roads and properties on the
landward side of the dune.
Coastal flood advisories have been issued for most of the
shoreline, with potential for reasonable worst case water
levels bringing minor coastal flooding of 1 to 2 ft of
inundation for vulnerable shoreline/coastal locations along LI
Sound, the eastern bays of LI and southern bays of LI/NYC. The
most vulnerable locations will be for north facing areas of the
twin forks, Jamaica Bay and Great South Bay exposed to open
waters from a northerly wind fetch.
Due to uncertainty of timing of surge with respect to high
tide, the contribution of wave setup and tidal piling over
several tidal cycles, and the hybrid extra-tropical/tropical
nature of this storm, the forecast has been geared to a
reasonable worst case P-Surge/P-ETSS blended forecast.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
Sunday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
Sunday for NYZ071-078-079-177.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
Sunday for NYZ080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT
Saturday for ANZ331-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ332-353-
355.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...