000
FXUS61 KOKX 161945
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
345 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered to the north and west will begin to gradually
weaken through Sunday. A cold front approaches Sunday night.
Low pressure tracks south and east of the region Monday,
followed by a cold frontal passage Monday Night. High pressure
then builds in through Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Mainly clear skies expected tonight as high pressure builds across
the area from the west. Winds will also decrease as the pressure
gradient weakens. Temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper
50s along the coast and upper 40s to low 50s across inland
locations.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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An upper trough will progress east across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday
into Sunday night, with its surface front just ahead of it. This
will bring clouds and some rains to the area Sunday evening into
Sunday night. A few isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but
severe weather is not expected at this time.
On Sunday temperatures will be slightly warmer than Saturday with
highs in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will be in the
60s along the coast and mid to upper 50s inland.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Good model agreement in a deepening trough across the central US
sliding towards the eastern US coast on Monday, and then pivoting
through Monday Night into Tuesday. In its wake, flattening flow and
gradually rising heights through the week locally, in between
eastern Canadian troughing and possible broad and weak southern
closed low.
At the surface, good general agreement with an inverted trough
extending NE from the southern US up the lee of Appalachians towards
region Sunday into Sunday Night. Southern low pressure develops
along this, and works to the Mid Atlantic Coast Sun Night into
Monday morning, tracking south and east of the area Monday and
off the New England coast Monday Night.
Deep SW flow ahead of the approaching shortwave will have moisture
and lift increasing into the region Sunday night into Monday,
interacting with precipitable waters increasing to 1 1/2 to 1 3/4".
Shower and possible embedded tstm activity likely moves into the
region ahead of the inverted trough, then some model spread in terms
of how close to the coast the strengthening surface low tracks on
Monday and where the frontogenetic/deformation banding on the back
side will lie.
Fairly good agreement in GEFS/EPS/GEPS probabilities of 1" of rain
of 50-60%, and 20% for 2", but spread on whether this is across the
entire area or just eastern portions based on aforementioned low
track. Moderate to locally heavy rain likely in this frontogenetic
zone with ample moisture and weak instability. Rainfall rates will
likely be under 1"/hr with stratiform nature of this event.
Improving conditions Monday Night into early Tuesday morning on
gusty NW winds in wake of low pressure. The tranquil and seasonable
conditions for mid to lake week as broad high pressure builds in
from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Post Tropical Cyclone Lee is progged to move further away to the
northeast while high pressure centered to the west will gradually
weaken and build across tonight. The high then redevelops offshore
on Sunday.
VFR. NW winds diminish into this evening, with light NW winds
tonight. The winds then become more W, and SW on Sunday. The winds
late Sunday will then develop more of a southerly component,
especially for the coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No Amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon: VFR.
Sunday night-Monday: MVFR possible. Showers becoming likely. VFR
conditions return Mon eve / night.
Tuesday-Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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The SCA on the ocean remains through tonight as seas will be slow to
subside below 5 ft. Winds will weaken below 25 kt this evening into
tonight and should remain weak on Sunday with high pressure over the
waters.
Next chance for SCA conditions for at least the ocean waters appears
to be Monday Night into Tuesday in wake of departing coastal low
pressure. Marginal SCA gusts possible all waters during this time as
well.
Pressure gradient and winds weaken Tuesday Night through the week,
but swells from distant tropical cyclone (currently TD15) could
bring SCA swells to the waters late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts through this weekend.
Total rainfall forecast is 1/2" to 1" west of the Hudson R, and 1 to
2" for LI/CT. Heavy rain will be possible at times presenting a
minor urban and poor drainage flood threat. Rainfall rates should
generally be below 1"/hr in stratiform environment, but this will
have to refined once the event enters high-res cam window. Potential
for higher rainfall rates in vicinity of inverted trough/coastal
front, but at this point that appears it will be offshore.
Otherwise, no hydrologic problems expected through next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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High rip current risk continue through this evening.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Sunday and Monday with
a mix of 1 to 2 ft swells.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$