000
FXUS61 KOKX 170105
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
905 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure to the north and west will gradually weaken
through Sunday. A cold front will approach Sunday night. Low
pressure moving up the coast will ride along the front and drag
the front through Monday night. High pressure will then follow
through Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Mainly clear skies and diminishing winds expected tonight as the
high builds from the west. Low temperatures tonight will be in
the mid/upper 50s along the coast, and in the upper 40s/lower
50s inland.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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An upper trough will progress east across the mid Atlantic
region, with a surface cold front just ahead of it. This will
bring clouds and some rain to the area Sunday evening into
Sunday night. A few isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out,
but severe weather is not expected at this time.

On Sunday temperatures will be slightly warmer than Saturday,
with highs in the mid/upper 70s. Overnight lows will be in the
60s along the coast and mid/upper 50s inland.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Good model agreement in a deepening trough across the central US
sliding toward the East Coast on Monday, then pivoting through
Monday night into Tuesday. In its wake, flattening flow and
gradually rising heights through the week locally, in between
eastern Canadian troughing and possible broad and weak southern
closed low.

At the surface, good general agreement with an inverted trough
extending NE from the southern US up the lee of Appalachians
toward region Sunday into Sunday night. Southern low pressure
developing along this trough will work its way to the mid
Atlantic coast Sunday night into Monday morning, tracking south
and east of the area Monday and off the New England coast
Monday night.

Deep SW flow ahead of the approaching shortwave will have
moisture and lift increasing into the region Sunday night into
Monday, interacting with precipitable waters increasing to
1.5-1.75". Shower and possible embedded tstm activity likely
moves into the region ahead of the inverted trough, then some
model spread in terms of how close to the coast the
strengthening surface low tracks on Monday and where the
frontogenetic/deformation banding on the back side will lie.

Fairly good agreement in GEFS/EPS/GEPS probabilities of 1" of rain
of 50-60%, and 20% for 2", but spread on whether this is across the
entire area or just eastern portions based on aforementioned low
track. Moderate to locally heavy rain likely in this frontogenetic
zone with ample moisture and weak instability. Rainfall rates will
likely be under 1"/hr with stratiform nature of this event.

Improving conditions Monday night into early Tuesday morning on
gusty NW winds in wake of low pressure. The tranquil and
seasonable conditions for mid to late week as broad high
pressure builds in from the west.
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&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR as weakening high pressure to the west builds across
tonight, then redevelops offshore on Sunday.

VFR. NW winds diminish into this evening, becoming light
overnight into early Sunday morning. Winds then become more W
and then SW daytime Sunday, then develop more of a southerly
component, especially for the coastal terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night and Monday: MVFR possible. Showers becoming likely.

Monday night: VFR conditions return.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Wave heights at 44025 and 44097 (S of Block Island) have
subsided to 3.3 ft and 5.2 ft respectively. Will cancel SCA for
the ocean W of Moriches Inlet and let it ride east of there a
bit longer into the overnight until seas at 44097 also subside
further.

Next chance for SCA conditions for at least the ocean waters
appears to be Monday night into Tuesday in wake of departing
coastal low pressure. Marginal SCA gusts possible all waters
during this time as well.

Pressure gradient and winds weaken Tuesday night through the
week, but swells from distant TD 15 (which should eventually
become a hurricane) could bring SCA swells to the waters late
week.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts through this weekend.

Total rainfall forecast is 1/2" to 1" west of the Hudson R, and
1 to 2" for Long Island/CT. Heavy rain will be possible at
times presenting a minor urban and poor drainage flood threat.
Rainfall rates should generally be below 1"/hr in a mostly
stratiform environment, and this will be refined once the event
enters the high-res CAM window. Potential for higher rainfall
rates in vicinity of inverted trough/coastal front, but at this
point that appears it will be offshore.

Otherwise, no hydrologic problems expected through next week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate rip current risk for Sunday and Monday with
a mix of 1-2 ft swells.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20/BG
NEAR TERM...20/BG
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JE/BG
MARINE...20/BG/NV
HYDROLOGY...20/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG