000
FXUS61 KOKX 191432
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region and remains in place through
Friday. High pressure shifts to the northeast of the area late
Friday into Saturday. A low pressure system may then impact the
region Saturday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A closed low H5 trough axis shifts east of the region today
with rising heights as ridging develops. The tightened pressure
gradient between departing surface low pressure and a building
high is allowing for a bit of an elevated flow. West northwest
winds around 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts 20 to 25 mph can be
expected through the afternoon, gradually lightening this
evening. Temperatures top out in the lower and middle 70s under
a bit of fair weather cu and plenty of sunshine.

Tonight, as the the high builds closer to the area, clear skies
and lighter winds should allow for efficient radiative cooling
conditions to set up. Coastal and urban areas fall into the
50s, and the usual cooler spots well north and west of NYC and
the Long Island Pine Barrens can expect temperatures in the 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will remain over the region through the short
term with mostly sunny skies both Wednesday and Thursday. A
Northwest flow on Wednesday and more of a northerly flow on Thursday
will keep conditions really pleasant with high temperatures in
the lower and middle 70s both days.

Wednesday and Thursday nights temperatures will once again fall into
the 50s with a few spots reaching the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Global models and their respective ensemble system have a general
agreement on the synoptic pattern into the weekend, though
differences do exist in the handling of a late week system with
southeast origins. The ridging in that was in place over the
northeast during the week begins to weaken and move offshore by
Friday. At the same time, a slow, nearly cutoff upper low
originating over the Carolinas pushes slowly north and is somewhat
impeded by the ridging in place over the northeast. This upper low
remains across the northeast for much of the period resulting in
unsettled weather from the weekend into early next week.

With respect to sensible weather, dry conditions are expected under
subsidence and retreating surface high pressure Friday into early
Saturday. Some late day clouds may begin to overspread the area
Friday afternoon in advance of surface low pressure well to the
south of the local area.

Thereafter, a surface low begins to take shape off the southeast
coast and heads northeast into the weekend. There are differences in
the strength, track, and timing of this feature in the guidance, with
some maintaining the ridge to the northeast effectively suppressing
the track of the low to the south of the area keeping it dry. Others
track the system over the area, or just to the east, bringing a
plume of high PWAT air with it, resulting in a long period of
precipitation Saturday through Sunday, along with gusty winds. In
addition, some guidance, particularly GEFS members, is indicating an
inverted trough associated with the main sfc low approaching as
early as Saturday morning with an additional slug of precipitation at
the onset. Global ensemble (GEFS, CMCE, ECE) means, and thus the NBM
all paint about 1-1.5" Saturday into early Monday for the area, but
the spread in individual ensemble members is quite large. NBM
probabilities of >1" in any 6 hour period through Sunday remain
quite low at this time, less than 10% continuing over the past few
cycles. WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for
Saturday. Details should come into better view over the next few
days with additional guidance sources available for that time horizon.

Ridging then looks to try and nose down from New England by Monday
afternoon, potentially clearing and drying out the area. Seasonable
temperatures are forecast for the period, though clouds and rain
over the weekend may allow for slightly cooler conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR.

High pressure builds over the terminals for the TAF period.

WNW winds will increase to near 10-15 kt with occasional gusts
to 20kts this morning into the afternoon. More frequent gusts to
near 20-25 kt are expected by late morning and afternoon. Gusts
will begin to diminish by late this afternoon as the pressure
gradient weakens.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday - Friday: VFR.

Saturday: MVFR possible with a chance of rain showers. E gusts near
15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A tight pressure gradient between a departing low pressure and
high pressure building to the west will result in gusts on the
ocean waters to be near 25 kt at times today. In addition,
southeast swells will be increasing from distant Hurricane
Nigel, with ocean seas reaching SCA levels, thus a small craft
advisory remains in effect across the ocean waters. The seas
will remain elevated through this evening, before lowering
tonight. Swells could linger into Wednesday, and seas may be
near SCA levels east of Moriches Inlet.

Winds on the waters should remain below SCA levels Wednesday
through Thursday night. A steepening pressure gradient then
brings increasing winds and potential for SCA gusts, especially
on the ocean on Saturday into Sunday. Seas may also become
elevated above 5 ft on Saturday to the north of low pressure
near the southeast coast.


Monitor https:/www.weather.gov/okx/tropical or
https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest NHC forecasts on Tropical
Storm Nigel.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Friday.

The potential exists for a widespread precipitation event this
upcoming weekend. WPC has placed most of the CWA in a marginal risk
of excessive rainfall on Saturday. However, there is uncertainty in
the timing and amount of potential rainfall with this system at this
time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk for all Atlantic-facing
beaches today due to 3 to 5 ft swells with 8 to 10 second periods.

This should begin to lower on Wednesday, with a moderate risk in
place for all beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-
     355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DBR
NEAR TERM...BC/DR
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DW/DBR
MARINE...BC/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...