000
FXUS61 KOKX 191931
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds into the region and remains in place through
Friday before shifting offshore. As the high exits, low pressure
developing over the Southeast may produce rain over the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A closed low H5 trough axis shifts east of the region with rising
heights as ridging develops. The tightened pressure gradient
between departing surface low pressure and a building high has
allowed for a bit of an elevated flow that begins to alleviate
this evening. Visible satellite and local cameras highlight
plenty of fair weather cu, but conditions remain dry regionwide
through tonight.
As the the high builds closer to the area, clear skies and
lighter winds should allow for efficient radiative cooling
conditions to set up. Coastal and urban areas fall into the 50s,
and the usual cooler spots well north and west of NYC and the
Long Island Pine Barrens can expect temperatures in the 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A tranquil and pleasant pattern persists mid to late week with
surface high pressure gradually building in from the west. Aloft,
an upper ridge amplifies over the Upper Great Lakes, with gradual
height increases through the period.
Abundant sunshine prevails both Wednesday and Thursday with
temperatures topping out in the low to mid 70s once again. A
light northwest flow on Wednesday veers northerly into Thursday
as the surface high tracks closer. Largely followed a blend of
NBM and HRRR data for this update.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A mid to upr 1020s high over the area Thu ngt translates offshore on
Fri. Continued dry and cool Thu ngt, then ely component flow
increases on Fri as low pres attempts to develop off the Carolina
coast. Still dry on Fri but increasing clouds and winds increasing
to around 10-20 mph by the end of the day, particularly at the
coasts. Stayed close to the NBM for temps Thu ngt-Fri.
The models are not in complete agreement with the exact track and
timing of the Southeast low for the weekend, although the data
suggests there will be a sys to track. Due to the model uncertainty,
the blended approach per the NBM was followed over the weekend. If
the low is far enough north per the GFS, Sat could be brisk and
rainy. The ECMWF on the other hand suggests the area will be mainly
dry with the sys too far south. It is possible that a stacked low
remains behind the leading sys, only slowly passing thru the area on
Sun providing another focus for rain, albeit less intense due to a
lack of strong advection. Temps over the weekend will be tied to the
rain. Drier solns should pan out warmer, and wetter solns colder.
Only exception would be if parts of the are warm sector for a period
of time. Based on all of this, a middle of the road approach was
used, and the NBM was followed with local adjustments.
The Mon-Tue evolution of the atmosphere remains highly uncertain
with an upr lvl trof exiting the area. The models have trended dry,
but based on the blended approach, have kept in low pops per the NBM
with the upr lvls uncertain. With an upstream dry airmass to tap
into, it is possible that fair early autumn wx sets up for the
period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR.
High pressure builds over the terminals for the TAF period.
WNW winds at 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt will quickly
diminish early this evening as winds veer to the NW at less
than 10 kt. Winds will then back to the WNW on Wednesday at
7-10kt, possibly becoming WSW in the afternoon at the coastal
terminals.
....NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds will be mainly left of 310 magnetic through early this
evening, then veer to the right.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday Afternoon - Friday: VFR.
Saturday and Sunday: MVFR or lower likely in rain. E gusts
15-25 kt, possibly higher at the coastal terminals. Strongest
winds at this time look to be on Saturday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Southeast swells from distant Hurricane Nigel are leading to 5
to 7 ft seas on the ocean, though these should begin to lower
below SCA criteria this evening. Wind and seas on the waters
should then remain below SCA levels Wednesday through Thursday
night.
Winds and seas gradually increase thru the day on Fri, with a sca
possible on the ocean by the end of the day. A sca appears likely
for most if not all of the waters on Sat. There is a chance for
gales, particularly ern waters and the ocean. A sca is possible
again on Sun, then gradual improvement on Mon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Friday.
Locally heavy rain will be possible over the weekend depending on
the exact track, timing, and intensity of low pres off the coast.
Hydrologic impacts will be possible if the hvy rain scenario
develops.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk for all Atlantic-facing
beaches today due to 3 to 5 ft swells with 8 to 10 second periods.
This should begin to lower on Wednesday, with a moderate risk in
place for all beaches.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...