000
FXUS61 KOKX 192332
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
732 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region and remains in place through
Friday before shifting offshore. As the high exits, low pressure
developing over the Southeast may produce rain over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The fcst is on track. A closed low H5 trough axis shifts east
of the region with rising heights as ridging develops. The
tightened pressure gradient between departing surface low
pressure and a building high has allowed for a bit of an
elevated flow that begins to alleviate this evening. Visible
satellite and local cameras highlight plenty of fair weather cu,
but conditions remain dry regionwide through tonight.
As the the high builds closer to the area, clear skies and
lighter winds should allow for efficient radiative cooling
conditions to set up. Coastal and urban areas fall into the 50s,
and the usual cooler spots well north and west of NYC and the
Long Island Pine Barrens can expect temperatures in the 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A tranquil and pleasant pattern persists mid to late week with
surface high pressure gradually building in from the west. Aloft,
an upper ridge amplifies over the Upper Great Lakes, with gradual
height increases through the period.
Abundant sunshine prevails both Wednesday and Thursday with
temperatures topping out in the low to mid 70s once again. A
light northwest flow on Wednesday veers northerly into Thursday
as the surface high tracks closer. Largely followed a blend of
NBM and HRRR data for this update.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid to upr 1020s high over the area Thu ngt translates
offshore on Fri. Continued dry and cool Thu ngt, then ely
component flow increases on Fri as low pres attempts to develop
off the Carolina coast. Still dry on Fri but increasing clouds
and winds increasing to around 10-20 mph by the end of the day,
particularly at the coasts. Stayed close to the NBM for temps
Thu ngt-Fri.
The models are not in complete agreement with the exact track and
timing of the Southeast low for the weekend, although the data
suggests there will be a sys to track. Due to the model uncertainty,
the blended approach per the NBM was followed over the weekend. If
the low is far enough north per the GFS, Sat could be brisk and
rainy. The ECMWF on the other hand suggests the area will be mainly
dry with the sys too far south. It is possible that a stacked low
remains behind the leading sys, only slowly passing thru the area on
Sun providing another focus for rain, albeit less intense due to a
lack of strong advection. Temps over the weekend will be tied to the
rain. Drier solns should pan out warmer, and wetter solns colder.
Only exception would be if parts of the are warm sector for a period
of time. Based on all of this, a middle of the road approach was
used, and the NBM was followed with local adjustments.
The Mon-Tue evolution of the atmosphere remains highly uncertain
with an upr lvl trof exiting the area. The models have trended dry,
but based on the blended approach, have kept in low pops per the NBM
with the upr lvls uncertain. With an upstream dry airmass to tap
into, it is possible that fair early autumn wx sets up for the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through the period as high pressure builds over the terminals.
Winds veer slightly to the NW tonight and settle down to less than
10 kt, with outlying terminals getting down closer to 5 kt. The
winds then back slightly to the WNW Wednesday and mainly settle in
at 7-10 kt. Coastal terminals may back a bit more to the WSW
Wed afternoon.
....NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 0Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Night - Friday: VFR.
Saturday and Sunday: MVFR or lower likely in rain. E gusts 15-25 kt,
possibly higher at the coastal terminals. Strongest winds at this
time look to be on Saturday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Southeast swells from distant Hurricane Nigel are leading to 5
to 7 ft seas on the ocean, though these should begin to lower
below SCA criteria this evening. Wind and seas on the waters
should then remain below SCA levels Wednesday through Thursday
night.
Winds and seas gradually increase thru the day on Fri, with a sca
possible on the ocean by the end of the day. A sca appears likely
for most if not all of the waters on Sat. There is a chance for
gales, particularly ern waters and the ocean. A sca is possible
again on Sun, then gradual improvement on Mon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Friday.
Locally heavy rain will be possible over the weekend depending on
the exact track, timing, and intensity of low pres off the coast.
Hydrologic impacts will be possible if the hvy rain scenario
develops.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a moderate rip current risk Wed and Thu.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...