000
FXUS61 KOKX 240812
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
412 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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The region will remain between high pressure to the north and
Post-Tropical Depression Ophelia low pressure area well to the
south and west today. This low pressure area will slowly move
east northeastward to south of Long Island tonight into Monday.
This will be followed by high pressure building in from
Southeast Canada through mid to late next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Approaching low pressure along front south of Long Island will
lead to more showers moving in for today. Isolated thunderstorms
in the forecast as well with elevated instability. Gusty ENE
flow remains across the region but will be getting remarkably
less than the previous day. Gusts more in the 25 to 30 mph.

Temperatures will stay below normal. Forecast highs only in the
60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Another area of showers moves in tonight as the low gets closer
to the area. Models convey good agreement on widespread rain
showers for much of tonight. Rain showers light to moderate but
could be heavy at times.

Layer precipitable waters will be decreasing late tonight into
Monday. This transitions to more of a stratiform rainfall Monday
and eventually the rain will become more confined to the coastal
sections Monday with POPs lowering to chance Monday afternoon
into Monday evening, lower chances to north, higher to the
south. Another cooler than normal day expected Monday as breezy
NE flow continues.

Drying conditions eventually take place from north to south with
rain showers tapering off Monday night. Low pressure will start
moving farther south of Long Island. High pressure from SE
Canada will start to build in from the north.

More sunshine is expected Tuesday with high pressure a greater
influence. Mainly dry conditions are expected. Forecast highs
still below normal, mainly in the low to mid 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A large dome of high pressure over eastern Canada settles south
through the week, building across the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic states. Also, during this time the area will be under a
prolonged period of NE/E flow. There should be a fair amount of
sun during the period. The one caveat to watch is with the
easterly flow perhaps some cloud cover lingering near the coast.

Temperatures during this period will generally be several degrees
below normal, with high in the 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s.
Forecast highs warm to around 70 at weeks end.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Post-Tropical Depression Ophelia stalled over Eastern Virginia
will track northeast by later this morning as it reaches the
Delmarva. Mainly widespread IFR will persist through the TAF
period, with only a few pockets of MVFR at times this morning.

Winds remain from the ENE to NE through the TAF period, with more of
a backing to true NE late in the TAF period for the 30 hr terminals.
Wind gusts will be mainly 20 to 25 kt, with a few terminals like
KLGA still gusting close to 30 kt at times through this morning.
Wind gusts are likely to start to end this evening, especially
further west across the terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

LIFR is not expected, but brief LIFR is possible, more so for KEWR
and KTEB this morning. Confidence of occurrence remains too low to
include in the TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: Mainly IFR, with some MVFR and showers. NE winds 10 to
15 kt gusting at 20 kt.

Monday: MVFR at times in showers, likely ending from north to south
through the afternoon with improvement to VFR.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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Gales on the ocean and SCA for non-ocean waters. SCA for non-
ocean goes until 6PM Monday. Gales on ocean go until 6AM this
morning. Then outside of some occasional gales on the ocean this
morning, winds mainly in SCA range today into tonight. Another
period of gales is forecast Monday into Monday night across the
ocean. The SCA wind gusts for the non-ocean zones will likely go
through Monday night and into Tuesday for most of the zones.
REsidual SCA conditions forecast on ocean Tuesday night. Then,
mainly SCA conditions on the ocean mid to late week with below
SCA for non-ocean zones.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Flash flood chances remain low today through tonight. Total
forecast rain around 1 to 2 inches through Monday with locally
higher amounts. Bulk of rain will be today into tonight.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a high rip current risk for all Atlantic facing
beaches through early this evening due to long period easterly
wind waves and E/S swells. This will likely need to be extended
into Monday.

A high surf advisory is in place for all Atlantic beaches
through early this evening. Breaking waves of 6 to 10 ft are
forecast from a combo of E/S long period swells. This will lead
to beach flooding and erosion, with scattered areas of dune
erosion. The threat for localized overwashes is low at this
point. Surf will subside to 4 to 7 today, but could continue at
that level into early next week with onshore flow.

Another round of localized minor coastal flooding is likely for
Lower NY/NJ harbor and southern bays of NYC/LI on today with a
persistent but weakened onshore flow. Additional rounds of minor
coastal flooding are possible for next week as astronomical
tides continue to increase, and E/NE flow possibly strengthening
depending on pressure gradient between low pressure to the south
and high pressure to the north.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...