000
FXUS61 KOKX 242022
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
422 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
The remnant low of Ophelia remains across the Delmarva into
southern New Jersey tonight and drifts east, south of Long Island
Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure across eastern Canada builds
southward tonight through Monday night. Low pressure will
continue to drift south and east off the Mid Atlantic coast this
week, while high pressure builds south out of eastern Canada.
There is a chance that a coastal front backs up toward the area
late in the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The remnant low of Ophelia will remain across eastern Virginia
to the Delmarva tonight. drifting slowly east northeast. A band
of enhanced rainfall will possible on the northern and
northwestern portion of the low where stronger lift is present,
and low topped convective elements will be possible. There
chances of thunder are low as elevated CAPE is low, 100 to 200
J/kg, and instability weak, so thunder was not included in the
weather. Precipitable water values will remain between 1.5 and
1.75 inches through tonight. Meanwhile, with a strong pressure
gradient force remaining between high pressure to the north and
the low to the south, winds will remain easterly and gusty.
Little diurnal temperature changes are expected tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure remains to the south Monday, drifting east,
then south as high pressure continues to build into the region
from eastern Canada. Rain will be tapering off and ending from
north to south Monday into Monday night. Once again gusty
easterly winds continue into Monday night, and temperatures
will have a small diurnal range.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is general consensus at the start of the period that low
pressure south of the region will track far enough south and
east on Tuesday for the rain to end with a period of dry weather
for the mid week. However, there is uncertainty with respect to
an upper low/trough undercutting the ridge that progresses east
at the end of the week and whether or not it amplifies enough
to draw the offshore low and associated frontal system back
toward the East Coast, as well as how far north. Thus, there are
low rain chances in the forecast Thursday through Saturday,
then drying out on Sunday. This forecast though looks to very
much be in flux with run to run changes likely in how this is
handled.
Also, during this time the area will be under a prolonged
period of NE/E flow. Gusts along the coast each day will be near
20 mph, but a bit stronger Tuesday the first day of the period.
There should be some sun during the mid week period, but it
becomes less certain based on the aforementioned coastal front
for the end of the week.
Temperatures during this period will generally be several
degrees below normal, with high in the 60s and lows in the 40s
and 50s. Forecast highs warm to around 70 at weeks end.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The remnant low of Ophelia is slowly beginning to track over
the Delmarva region. Mainly widespread IFR will persist through
the TAF period, with only a few pockets of MVFR at times today
due to low ceilings and showers.
Winds remain from the ENE to NE through the TAF period. Wind
gusts will be mainly 20 to 25 kt. Wind gusts will subside this
evening. Gusts are likely to return tomorrow with IFR persisting
from low ceilings and stratiform rain.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
LIFR is not expected, but brief LIFR is possible. Confidence of
occurrence remains too low to include in the TAFs.
IFR is predominant in the TAFs, with periods of MVFR tough to
pinpoint as it is mostly occurring in between periods of rain.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Night-Tuesday Morning: IFR in rain with periods of MVFR,
likely ending from northwest to southeast Monday night-Tuesday
morning with improvement to VFR.
Tuesday through Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strong and gusty northeast to east winds will continue tonight
through Monday night as the remnant low of Ophelia remains to
the south of the forecast waters as high pressure builds south
out of eastern Canada. Small craft conditions remain on all the
non ocean forecast waters tonight through Monday night, and the
SCA has been extended. Gusts may briefly fall below 25 kt
across New York Harbor, and the south shore bays later tonight
and possibly into early Monday morning before increasing once
again. A SCA remains on the ocean waters through tonight, and
with increasing gusts Monday, reaching near to around 35 kt, a
gale warning has been issued Monday through Monday evening. SCA
conditions will then continue on the ocean through Monday night.
SCA conditions will likely persist on the ocean through the week
with a prolonged period of E/NE winds, which will be strongest on
Tuesday at 25 to 30 kt, lowering to 15 to 20 kt for the remainder of
the week. SCA conditions are possible Tuesday on the non-ocean
waters, but then should stay below for the remainder of the period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible tonight through
Monday night, with much of that rain falling through tonight.
The highest totals are across portions of northeastern New
Jersey, into NYC, the lower Hudson Valley, and into southwestern
Connecticut. This region may see locally higher amounts, with up
to 3 inches possible. There is a low chance of flash flooding
tonight, and WPC has the area in a slight risk of excessive
rainfall. Poor drainage and low lying areas will be most
vulnerable to flooding.
There are no hydrologic concerns at this time from Tuesday on.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
A prolonged easterly flow through the week and an approaching
full moon will lead to multiple episodes of coastal flooding
through the week. For tonight the focus will be on the south
shore back bays of western LI and areas adjacent to Peconic Bay,
in particular the Riverhead area. A statement remain in effect
for SW Suffolk with an advisory for SE/NE Suffolk.
The best chance at minor coastal flood benchmarks being met is
for the Monday and Tuesday PM high tide cycles. Advisories or
statements may be needed for Lower NY / NJ Harbor (including
Staten Island), the south shore bays of Queens, Nassau, and SW
Suffolk, the Western LI Sound shore of Fairfield and
Westchester, and potentially for Peconic Bay if there is not a
change in the current wind direction.
Regarding the beach conditions, high surf, and rip currents,
still expecting high surf along the ocean beaches through early
this evening as well as a high risk of rip currents. Beach
erosion and beach flooding will also be taking place with this
high surf.
Surf height today around 6 to 10 ft this morning, lowering to 5
to 7 ft this afternoon. Swell is from the east direction with
8-9 second period. Both the high surf advisory and high risk of
rip currents continue through early this evening. Tonight into
Monday, waves further lower getting below high surf advisory
criteria but remaining high enough to keep a high risk of rip
currents at the ocean beaches. The high risk of rip current
hazard has been extended through early evening hours on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ079-
081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW