000
FXUS61 KOKX 250304
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1104 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
The remnant low of Ophelia remains across the Delmarva into
southern New Jersey tonight and drifts east, south of Long Island
Monday. Low pressure will then continue to drift south and east
off the Mid Atlantic coast this week, while high pressure
builds south out of eastern Canada. There is a chance that a
coastal front backs up toward the area late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The remnant low of Ophelia will track across the northern Mid
Atlantic overnight, moving off the southern NJ coast toward
daybreak. A band of enhanced rainfall is forecast to develop
overnight across the area due to enhanced lift to the north and
west of the low track. Low topped convective elements will also
be possible. There chances of thunder are low as elevated CAPE
is low, 100 to 200 J/kg, so thunder was not included in the
weather. Precipitable water values will remain between 1.5 and
1.75 inches through tonight. Meanwhile, with a strong pressure
gradient force remaining between high pressure to the north and
the low to the south, winds will remain easterly and gusty.
Little diurnal temperature changes are expected tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast is generally on track. Western portions of Orange
County are approaching 75% of 6 hour flash flood guidance, with
light to moderate rain still over the area. However, radar shows
that main area of steady rain is about to exit the area, and a
Flood Advisory is not currently warranted, but will continue to
monitor the situation.
Weak low pressure remains to the south Monday, drifting east,
then south as high pressure continues to build into the region
from eastern Canada. Rain will be tapering off and ending from
north to south Monday into Monday night. Once again gusty
easterly winds continue into Monday night, and temperatures
will have a small diurnal range.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is general consensus at the start of the period that low
pressure south of the region will track far enough south and
east on Tuesday for the rain to end with a period of dry weather
for the mid week. However, there is uncertainty with respect to
an upper low/trough undercutting the ridge that progresses east
at the end of the week and whether or not it amplifies enough
to draw the offshore low and associated frontal system back
toward the East Coast, as well as how far north. Thus, there are
low rain chances in the forecast Thursday through Saturday,
then drying out on Sunday. This forecast though looks to very
much be in flux with run to run changes likely in how this is
handled.
Also, during this time the area will be under a prolonged
period of NE/E flow. Gusts along the coast each day will be near
20 mph, but a bit stronger Tuesday the first day of the period.
There should be some sun during the mid week period, but it
becomes less certain based on the aforementioned coastal front
for the end of the week.
Temperatures during this period will generally be several
degrees below normal, with high in the 60s and lows in the 40s
and 50s. Forecast highs warm to around 70 at weeks end.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The remnant low of Ophelia is slowly beginning to track over
the Delmarva region. High pressure begins to build in from the
north Monday.
IFR will generally persist through the TAF period, with brief
period of MVFR or LIFR possible at times. Slowly improving
conditions are expected for more northern terminals late in the
TAF period as high pressure begins to build in from the north.
Winds remain from the ENE to NE through the TAF period. Wind
gusts will be mainly 20 to 25 kt. Gusts should continue
overnight and may diminish slightly or become more occasional
at some terminals. Gusts are likely to return tomorrow morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely due to changing flight categories. Brief MVFR
or LIFR conditions possible.
Gusts may be more occasional overnight.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Night-Tuesday Morning: MVFR conditions improving to VFR.
Tuesday through Wednesday night: VFR. NE wind gusts to around 20
kt Tuesday.
Thursday through Friday: MVFR or lower possible in any showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Strong and gusty northeast to east winds will continue tonight
through Monday night as the remnant low of Ophelia remains to
the south of the forecast waters as high pressure builds south
out of eastern Canada. Small craft conditions remain on all the
non ocean forecast waters tonight through Monday night, and the
SCA has been extended. Gusts may briefly fall below 25 kt
across New York Harbor, and the south shore bays later tonight
and possibly into early Monday morning before increasing once
again. A SCA remains on the ocean waters through tonight, and
with increasing gusts Monday, reaching near to around 35 kt, a
gale warning has been issued Monday through Monday evening. SCA
conditions will then continue on the ocean through Monday night.
SCA conditions will likely persist on the ocean through the week
with a prolonged period of E/NE winds, which will be strongest on
Tuesday at 25 to 30 kt, lowering to 15 to 20 kt for the remainder of
the week. SCA conditions are possible Tuesday on the non-ocean
waters, but then should stay below for the remainder of the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible tonight through
Monday night, with much of that rain falling through tonight.
The highest totals are across portions of northeastern New
Jersey, into NYC, the lower Hudson Valley, and into southwestern
Connecticut. This region may see locally higher amounts, with up
to 3 inches possible. There is a low chance of flash flooding
tonight, and WPC has the area in a slight risk of excessive
rainfall. Poor drainage and low lying areas will be most
vulnerable to flooding.
There are no hydrologic concerns at this time from Tuesday on.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A prolonged easterly flow through the week and an approaching
full moon will lead to multiple episodes of coastal flooding.
For the remainder of tonight the focus will be for areas
adjacent to Peconic Bay, in particular the Riverhead area. An
advisory remains up for SE/NE Suffolk through 11 pm.
A better chance at reaching or exceeding minor coastal flood
will be during the PM high tide cycles Monday and Tuesday.
Advisories or statements may be needed for Lower NY / NJ Harbor
(including Staten Island), the south shore bays of Queens,
Nassau, and SW Suffolk, the Western LI Sound shore of Fairfield
and Westchester, and potentially for Peconic Bay if there is not
a change in the current wind direction.
A high rip current risk continues into Monday and will likely
need to be extended in subsequent forecasts due to a prolonged
easterly flow and long period swells. However, the swells will
be nearly parallel to the coast which will limit the full
potential. For the time, expecting 3 to 5 ft waves in the surf
zone for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ079-
081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...