000
FXUS61 KOKX 250614
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
214 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
The remnant low of Ophelia remains across the Delmarva into
southern New Jersey tonight and drifts east, south of Long Island
Monday. Low pressure will then continue to drift south and east
off the Mid Atlantic coast this week, while high pressure
builds south out of eastern Canada. There is a chance that a
coastal front backs up toward the area late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The remnant low of Ophelia will track across the northern Mid
Atlantic overnight, moving off the southern NJ coast toward
daybreak. A band of enhanced rainfall has developed across the
area due to enhanced lift to the north and west of the low
track. Low topped convective elements will also be possible.
There chances of thunder are low as elevated CAPE is low, 100 to
200 J/kg, so thunder was not included in the weather.
Precipitable water values will remain between 1.5 and 1.75
inches through the overnight. Meanwhile, with a strong pressure
gradient force remaining between high pressure to the north and
the low to the south, winds will remain easterly and gusty.
Little diurnal temperature changes are expected overnight as dew
point readings remain elevated.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Forecast is generally on track. Western portions of Orange
County are approaching 75% of 6 hour flash flood guidance, with
light to moderate rain still over the area. However, radar shows
that main area of steady rain is about to exit the area, and a
Flood Advisory is not currently warranted, but will continue to
monitor the situation.
Weak low pressure remains to the south Monday, drifting east,
then south as high pressure continues to build into the region
from eastern Canada. Rain will be tapering off and ending from
north to south Monday into Monday night. Once again gusty
easterly winds continue into Monday night, and temperatures
will have a small diurnal range.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is general consensus at the start of the period that low
pressure south of the region will track far enough south and
east on Tuesday for the rain to end with a period of dry weather
for the mid week. However, there is uncertainty with respect to
an upper low/trough undercutting the ridge that progresses east
at the end of the week and whether or not it amplifies enough
to draw the offshore low and associated frontal system back
toward the East Coast, as well as how far north. Thus, there are
low rain chances in the forecast Thursday through Saturday,
then drying out on Sunday. This forecast though looks to very
much be in flux with run to run changes likely in how this is
handled.
Also, during this time the area will be under a prolonged
period of NE/E flow. Gusts along the coast each day will be near
20 mph, but a bit stronger Tuesday the first day of the period.
There should be some sun during the mid week period, but it
becomes less certain based on the aforementioned coastal front
for the end of the week.
Temperatures during this period will generally be several
degrees below normal, with high in the 60s and lows in the 40s
and 50s. Forecast highs warm to around 70 at weeks end.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure lingers south of the region during the TAF period.
High pressure starts to build in late in the TAF period from
the north.
Rain will be intermittent throughout much of the TAF period. Mainly
IFR conditions are expected with slight improvements slowly taking
place from north to south after 20Z today and into the time period
of 00-06Z Tuesday, mainly for KSWF and CT terminals. Rain will
lessen towards the latter half of the TAF period as well.
Winds will be NE around 10-15 kt going into early morning and then
will be around 15-18 kts through the remainder of the TAF period.
Gusts develop after 12-13Z today near 20-25 kt and continue for much
of the remainder of the TAF period. There could be some occasional
gusts up to 30 kt for the daytime into evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There could be some fluctuation between MVFR and IFR.
Gusts to 30 kt could occur occasionally today into this evening.
Brief localized LIFR will be possible at times.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late Tonight: Low chances of rain showers, MVFR to possibly IFR
conditions. Improvement to VFR possible for some more northern
terminals. NE wind gusts near 20-25 kt.
Tuesday: Possible MVFR and rain showers AM. Otherwise, VFR. NE wind
gusts near 20 kt. Gusts eventually subside at night.
Wednesday: VFR. Some daytime NE wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Thursday-Friday: Chance of rain showers. MVFR possible. Some NE wind
gusts 15-20 kt mainly during the daytime.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Strong and gusty northeast to east winds will continue tonight
through Monday night as the remnant low of Ophelia remains to
the south of the forecast waters as high pressure builds south
out of eastern Canada. Small craft conditions remain on all the
non ocean forecast waters tonight through Monday night, and the
SCA has been extended. Gusts may briefly fall below 25 kt
across New York Harbor, and the south shore bays later tonight
and possibly into early Monday morning before increasing once
again. A SCA remains on the ocean waters through tonight, and
with increasing gusts Monday, reaching near to around 35 kt, a
gale warning has been issued Monday through Monday evening. SCA
conditions will then continue on the ocean through Monday night.
SCA conditions will likely persist on the ocean through the week
with a prolonged period of E/NE winds, which will be strongest on
Tuesday at 25 to 30 kt, lowering to 15 to 20 kt for the remainder of
the week. SCA conditions are possible Tuesday on the non-ocean
waters, but then should stay below for the remainder of the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible tonight through
Monday night, with much of that rain falling through tonight.
The highest totals are across portions of northeastern New
Jersey, into NYC, the lower Hudson Valley, and into southwestern
Connecticut. This region may see locally higher amounts, with up
to 3 inches possible. There is a low chance of flash flooding
tonight, and WPC has the area in a slight risk of excessive
rainfall. Poor drainage and low lying areas will be most
vulnerable to flooding.
There are no hydrologic concerns at this time from Tuesday on.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A prolonged easterly flow through the week and an approaching
full moon will lead to multiple episodes of coastal flooding.
The chances increase at reaching or exceeding minor coastal flood
will be during the PM high tide cycles today and Tuesday.
Advisories or statements may be needed for Lower NY / NJ Harbor
(including Staten Island), the south shore bays of Queens, Nassau,
and SW Suffolk, the Western LI Sound shore of Fairfield and
Westchester, and potentially for Peconic Bay if there is not a
change in the current wind direction.
A high rip current risk continues into Monday and will likely
need to be extended in subsequent forecasts due to a prolonged
easterly flow and long period swells. However, the swells will
be nearly parallel to the coast which will limit the full
potential. For the time, expecting 3 to 5 ft waves in the surf
zone for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...