000
FXUS61 KOKX 250838
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
438 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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The remnant low of Ophelia drifts east today getting to the south
and east of Long Island this afternoon. The low will then continue
to drift south and east further offshore tonight into Tuesday as
high pressure gradually builds south out of eastern Canada. The high
should take control Tuesday night into Wednesday, but there is a
chance that a coastal front backs up toward the area late in the
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure remains to the south today, drifting east of the NJ
coast, then southeast as high pressure continues to build into the
region from eastern Canada. The latest guidance shows rain and
shower activity lingering across the region. HREF PMM continues to
show the more focused forcing across interior sections for much of
today, before starting to translate further east and weakening to a
degree as it does so. The higher QPF should fall across the Lower
Hudson Valley and east into portions of SW CT where an additional
inch or so of rain is likely, with lesser amounts across far eastern
CT and points south for NYC and much of Long Island, especially
along the south shore. The gusty easterly winds continue through
tonight, however the rain will begin to get lighter from north to
south as any forcing weakens further. Skies will remain cloudy with
a rather small temperature range due to gusty winds and cloud cover.
Therefore temperatures will average below normal today by around 10
degrees or so, but average near normal tonight. Any shower activity
tonight should be rather light with amounts under a quarter inch,
and perhaps closer to a tenth of an inch tonight, mainly across
southern portions of the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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For Tuesday the last of the shower activity should be pivoting
through southern portions of the area in the morning, and likely
pushing south of Long Island in the afternoon hours. Breaks in the
overcast develop across northern sections in the morning, and work
its way further south during the late afternoon hours. With a gusty
ENE wind continuing and clouds attempting to hang in look for
temperatures once again to average well below normal, with mainly
lower half of the 60s.
By Tuesday night high pressure makes its push further south out of
Eastern Canada. Skies will clear from north to south during the
evening hours, with some clouds lingering across far southern
sections perhaps into early Wed morning. Temperatures will actually
fall closer to normal much cooler 40s across the interior, with
lower 50s along the immediate coast. The gusts should end on a
lighter ENE wind as the pressure gradient weakens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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There is general consensus at the start of the period that low
pressure south of the region will track far enough south and
east that there will be a period of dry weather for the mid
week. However, there is uncertainty with respect to an upper
low/trough undercutting the ridge that progresses towards the
end of the week and whether or not it amplifies enough to draw
the offshore low and associated frontal system back toward the
East Coast, as well as how far north. Thus, there are low rain
chances in the forecast Thursday through Saturday, then drying
out on Sunday. This forecast though looks to very much be in
flux with run to run changes likely in how this is handled.
There should be some sun during the mid week period with an
general NE to ENE flow continuing, albeit weaker. Sunshine and
dry conditions becomes less certain based on the aforementioned
coastal front for the end of the week.
Temperatures during this period will generally be several
degrees below normal, with high in the middle and upper 60s and
lows in the 40s and 50s. Forecast highs warm to around 70 at
weeks end.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Low pressure lingers south of the region during the TAF period.
High pressure starts to build in late in the TAF period from
the north.
Rain will be intermittent throughout much of the TAF period. Mainly
IFR conditions are expected with slight improvements slowly taking
place from north to south after 20Z today and into the time period
of 00-06Z Tuesday, mainly for KSWF and CT terminals. Rain will
lessen towards the latter half of the TAF period as well.
Winds will be NE around 10-15 kt going into early morning and then
will be around 15-18 kts through the remainder of the TAF period.
Gusts develop after 12-13Z today near 20-25 kt and continue for much
of the remainder of the TAF period. There could be some occasional
gusts up to 30 kt for the daytime into evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There could be some fluctuation between MVFR and IFR.
Gusts to 30 kt could occur occasionally today into this evening.
Brief localized LIFR will be possible at times.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late Tonight: Low chances of rain showers, MVFR to possibly IFR
conditions. Improvement to VFR possible for some more northern
terminals. NE wind gusts near 20-25 kt.
Tuesday: Possible MVFR and rain showers AM. Otherwise, VFR. NE wind
gusts near 20 kt. Gusts eventually subside at night.
Wednesday: VFR. Some daytime NE wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Thursday-Friday: Chance of rain showers. MVFR possible. Some NE wind
gusts 15-20 kt mainly during the daytime.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Strong and gusty northeast to east winds will continue through
Monday night and into much of the day Tuesday as the remnant low of
Ophelia moves and remains to the south of the forecast waters as
high pressure gradually builds south out of eastern Canada. Small
craft conditions on the near shore waters have been extended through
the day on Tuesday, along with gales out on the ocean waters. Gusts
on the nearshore waters will get to or just above 30 kt, with gusts
out on the ocean waters of 35 to 40 kt. By Tuesday afternoon the
stronger gusts will dissipate, with sub small craft gusts and sub
gale gusts conditions possibly ending.
A persistent ENE flow will continue through the week, albeit a
weaker flow. Seas out on the ocean will remain elevated with small
craft seas continuing.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Additional rainfall of up to an inch is likely through today
across the Lower Hudson Valley and portions of SW CT. Otherwise,
the remainder of the region will likely see a quarter to a half
inch of additional rainfall. Hydrologic concerns are unlikely
as the storm system gradually weakens and also pushes east and
away from the areas which have seen the most rain.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A prolonged easterly flow through the week and an approaching
full moon will lead to multiple episodes of coastal flooding.
The chances increase at reaching or exceeding minor coastal flood
will be during the PM high tide cycles today and Tuesday.
Advisories or statements may be needed for Lower NY / NJ Harbor
(including Staten Island), the south shore bays of Queens, Nassau,
and SW Suffolk, the Western LI Sound shore of Fairfield and
Westchester, and potentially for Peconic Bay if there is not a
change in the current wind direction.
A high rip current risk continues into Monday and will likely
need to be extended in subsequent forecasts due to a prolonged
easterly flow and long period swells. However, the swells will
be nearly parallel to the coast which will limit the full
potential. For the time, expecting 3 to 5 ft waves in the surf
zone for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...