000
FXUS61 KOKX 251400
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1000 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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The remnant low of Ophelia will pass south and east of Long
Island through this afternoon, then continue to drift farther
offshore tonight into Tuesday as high pressure gradually builds
southward out of eastern Canada. The high should take control
from Tuesday night into Wednesday, but there is a chance that a
coastal front could backs up toward the area late in the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AM update: Forecast on track. Updated mainly to begin with 13Z
obs and trend toward afternoon forecast values.
Low pressure remains to the south today, drifting east of the NJ
coast, then southeast as high pressure continues to build in
from eastern Canada. Earlier guidance showed rain and shower
activity lingering across the region. HREF PMM continued to
show the more focused forcing across interior sections for much
of today, before starting to translate farther east and
weakening to a degree. The higher QPF should fall across the
Lower Hudson Valley and east into portions of SW CT where an
additional inch or so of rain is likely, with lesser amounts
across far eastern CT and points south for NYC and much of Long
Island, especially along the south shore. Gusty easterly winds
continue through tonight, however the rain will begin to get
lighter from north to south as any forcing weakens further.
Skies will remain cloudy with a rather small temperature range
due to gusty winds and cloud cover. Therefore temperatures will
average below normal today by around 10 degrees or so, but
average near normal tonight. Any shower activity tonight should
be rather light with amounts under a quarter inch, and perhaps
closer to a tenth of an inch tonight, mainly across southern
portions of the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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For Tuesday the last of the shower activity should be pivoting
through southern portions of the area in the morning, and likely
pushing south of Long Island in the afternoon hours. Breaks in
the overcast develop across northern sections in the morning,
and work its way further south during the late afternoon hours.
With a gusty ENE wind continuing and clouds attempting to hang
in look for temperatures once again to average well below
normal, with mainly lower half of the 60s.
By Tuesday night high pressure makes its push farther south out
of Eastern Canada. Skies will clear from north to south during
the evening hours, with some clouds lingering across far
southern sections perhaps into early Wed morning. Temperatures
will actually fall closer to normal much cooler 40s across the
interior, with lower 50s along the immediate coast. The gusts
should end on a lighter ENE wind as the pressure gradient
weakens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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There is general consensus at the start of the period that low
pressure south of the region will track far enough south and
east that there will be a period of dry weather for the mid
week. However, there is uncertainty with respect to an upper
low/trough undercutting the ridge that progresses towards the
end of the week and whether or not it amplifies enough to draw
the offshore low and associated frontal system back toward the
East Coast, as well as how far north. Thus, there are low rain
chances in the forecast Thursday through Saturday, then drying
out on Sunday. This forecast though looks to very much be in
flux with run to run changes likely in how this is handled.
There should be some sunshine during the mid week period with
an general NE-ENE flow continuing, albeit weaker. Sunshine and
dry conditions become less certain based on the aforementioned
coastal front for the end of the week.
Temperatures during this period will generally be several
degrees below normal, with highs in the mid/upper 60s and lows
in the 40s and 50s. Forecast highs warm to around 70 at
week`s end.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Weak low pressure meanders just south of the region as high pressure
gradually builds from the north early this week. Sub-VFR forecast.
Intermittent light rain throughout much of the TAF period with
IFR cigs. Occasional fog and mist will lower visibilities at
times. Mainly IFR into this afternoon, perhaps improving to MVFR
by late in the day, mainly for KSWF and CT terminals.
Gusty NE winds 10 to 15 kt this morning will increase to 15 to
18 kts this afternoon and persist into Tuesday. Gusts 20 to 25
kt today, though occasional gusts up to 30 kt possible into this
evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There could be some fluctuation between MVFR and IFR. Confidence is
low on timing of improvement to MVFR.
Isolated gusts over 30 kt possible into this evening.
Brief, localized LIFR will be possible at times.
The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Possible MVFR/IFR and rain showers morning into early
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR. NE wind gusts near 20 kt. Gusts
eventually subside at night.
Wednesday: VFR. Some daytime NE wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Thursday-Friday: Chance of rain showers. MVFR possible. Some NE wind
gusts 15-20 kt mainly during the daytime.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Strong and gusty northeast to east winds will continue through
Monday night and into much of the day Tuesday as the remnant
low of Ophelia moves and remains to the south of the forecast
waters as high pressure gradually builds south out of eastern
Canada. Small craft conditions on the near shore waters have
been extended through the day on Tuesday, along with gales out
on the ocean waters. Gusts on the nearshore waters will get to
or just above 30 kt, with gusts out on the ocean waters of 35 to
40 kt. By Tuesday afternoon the stronger gusts will dissipate,
with sub small craft gusts and sub gale gusts conditions
possibly ending.
A persistent ENE flow will continue through the week, albeit a
weaker flow. Seas out on the ocean will remain elevated with small
craft seas continuing.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Additional rainfall of up to an inch is likely through today
across the Lower Hudson Valley and portions of SW CT.
Otherwise, the remainder of the region will likely see a quarter
to a half inch of additional rainfall. Hydrologic concerns are
unlikely as the storm system gradually weakens and also pushes
east and away from the areas which have seen the most rain.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Persistent E-NE flow this week an an approaching full moon will
result in increasing astronomical levels and extra surge,
thereby resulting in multiple rounds of coastal flooding this
week. Mostly minor coastal flooding is expected although some
localized moderate coastal flooding is expected in the Peconic
Bay near Riverhead.
Around 1.5 to 2 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal flooding
across the Lower NY Harbor, South Shore Bays and Eastern Bays
of Long Island as well as the SW CT and Southern Westchester NY
shoreline of Western Long Island Sound. These locations have
coastal flood advisories in effect from late this afternoon into
this evening and are expected to have multiple locations
experience minor coastal flooding with particularly Peconic Bay
in Riverhead getting some localized moderate coastal flooding.
For Upper NY Harbor, rest of Long Island and NYC shorelines
along Long Island Sound as well as Southern New Haven CT, there
are coastal flood statements in effect for late this afternoon
into this evening. The coastal flood statements cover where
minor coastal flooding will be more localized or isolated.
A high risk of rip currents will remain in effect through
Tuesday evening. Seas build today with an easterly swell once
again increasing to around 9 seconds late today and this
evening. The surf increases throughout today with 4 to 7 ft
breaking waves tonight and into Tuesday. The surf will likely
start to subside gradually late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Held off on surf advisory issuance for now with the expectation
of averaging just below surf advisory criteria.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
this evening for NYZ074-075-178-179.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight
EDT tonight for NYZ079>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/BG
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...