000
FXUS61 KOKX 251816
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
216 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
The remnant low of Ophelia will pass south and east of Long
Island through this afternoon, then continue to drift farther
offshore tonight into Tuesday as high pressure gradually builds
southward out of eastern Canada. The high should take control
from Tuesday night into Wednesday, but there is a chance that a
coastal front could backs up toward the area late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Early afternoon update: Winds have trended stronger especially
along the coast, with LGA gusting up to 38 kt. Think this will
be a brief surge of higher wind farther west, but be more
prevalent farther east across SE CT and central/eastern Long
Island.
Bands of rain with the remnant low have been more prevalent
across S CT, Westchester/Putnam and parts of central Long
Island, with amts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch per MRMS estimate from
12Z-18Z today, and similar amts may be possible in those same
areas late this afternoon into this evening.
Gusty easterly winds continue through tonight, however the rain
will begin to get lighter from north to south as any forcing
weakens further. Skies will remain cloudy with a rather small
temperature range due to gusty winds and cloud cover. Therefore
temperatures will average below normal today by around 10
degrees or so, but average near normal tonight. Any shower
activity tonight should be rather light with amounts under a
quarter inch, and perhaps closer to a tenth of an inch tonight,
mainly across southern portions of the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For Tuesday the last of the shower activity should be pivoting
through southern portions of the area in the morning, and likely
pushing south of Long Island in the afternoon hours. Breaks in
the overcast develop across northern sections in the morning,
and work its way further south during the late afternoon hours.
With a gusty ENE wind continuing and clouds attempting to hang
in look for temperatures once again to average well below
normal, with mainly lower half of the 60s.
By Tuesday night high pressure makes its push farther south out
of Eastern Canada. Skies will clear from north to south during
the evening hours, with some clouds lingering across far
southern sections perhaps into early Wed morning. Temperatures
will actually fall closer to normal much cooler 40s across the
interior, with lower 50s along the immediate coast. The gusts
should end on a lighter ENE wind as the pressure gradient
weakens.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is general consensus at the start of the period that low
pressure south of the region will track far enough south and
east that there will be a period of dry weather for the mid
week. However, there is uncertainty with respect to an upper
low/trough undercutting the ridge that progresses towards the
end of the week and whether or not it amplifies enough to draw
the offshore low and associated frontal system back toward the
East Coast, as well as how far north. Thus, there are low rain
chances in the forecast Thursday through Saturday, then drying
out on Sunday. This forecast though looks to very much be in
flux with run to run changes likely in how this is handled.
There should be some sunshine during the mid week period with
an general NE-ENE flow continuing, albeit weaker. Sunshine and
dry conditions become less certain based on the aforementioned
coastal front for the end of the week.
Temperatures during this period will generally be several
degrees below normal, with highs in the mid/upper 60s and lows
in the 40s and 50s. Forecast highs warm to around 70 at
week`s end.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure meanders just south of the region as high
pressure gradually builds from the north early this week.
Mainly sub-VFR forecast.
Intermittent light rain through Tuesday morning with MVFR or IFR
cigs. Occasional fog and mist will lower vsbys at times. Gradual
improvement to VFR Tue AM into early afternoon.
NE wind 15 to 20 kts persists into Tuesday. Gusts 20 to 30 kt,
though isolated gusts over 30 kt possible into this evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There could be some fluctuation between MVFR and IFR. Confidence
is low on timing of improvement to MVFR.
Isolated gusts over 30 kt possible into this evening.
Brief, localized LIFR will be possible at times.
The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday: Becoming to VFR by early afternoon. NE wind gusts near
20 kt. Gusts eventually subside at night.
Wednesday: VFR. Daytime NE wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Thursday and Friday: Chance of rain showers with MVFR possible.
NE wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly during the daytime.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strong and gusty northeast to east winds will continue through
Monday night and into much of the day Tuesday as the remnant
low of Ophelia moves and remains to the south of the forecast
waters as high pressure gradually builds south out of eastern
Canada. Expanded gale warning until 8 PM for the eastern and
central Sound, and cannot rule out a few gusts to 35 kt on the
remaining non ocean waters where SCA remains in effect through
Tue. Gale warning continues on the ocean waters into daytime
Tue, with gusts 35-40 kt.
By Tuesday afternoon the stronger gusts will dissipate, with
sub small craft gusts and sub gale gusts conditions possibly
ending.
A persistent ENE flow will continue through the week, albeit a
weaker flow. Ocean seas will remain elevated above SCA criteria.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Additional rainfall of up to 1/2 inch is likely late this
afternoon into tonight across parts of S CT and eastern Long
Island. Hydrologic concerns unlikely.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Persistent E-NE flow this week an an approaching full moon will
result in increasing astronomical levels and extra surge,
thereby resulting in multiple rounds of coastal flooding this
week. Mostly minor coastal flooding is expected although some
localized moderate coastal flooding is expected in the Peconic
Bay near Riverhead.
Around 1.5 to 2 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal flooding
across the Lower NY Harbor, South Shore Bays and Eastern Bays
of Long Island as well as the SW CT and Southern Westchester NY
shoreline of Western Long Island Sound. These locations have
coastal flood advisories in effect from late this afternoon into
this evening and are expected to have multiple locations
experience minor coastal flooding with particularly Peconic Bay
in Riverhead getting some localized moderate coastal flooding.
For Upper NY Harbor, rest of Long Island and NYC shorelines
along Long Island Sound as well as Southern New Haven CT, there
are coastal flood statements in effect for late this afternoon
into this evening. The coastal flood statements cover where
minor coastal flooding will be more localized or isolated.
A high risk of rip currents will remain in effect through
Tuesday evening. Seas build today with an easterly swell once
again increasing to around 9 seconds late today and this
evening. The surf increases throughout today with 4 to 7 ft
breaking waves tonight and into Tuesday. The surf will likely
start to subside gradually late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Held off on surf advisory issuance for now with the expectation
of averaging just below surf advisory criteria.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ074-
075-178-179.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight
EDT tonight for NYZ079>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ335-338-340-
345.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/BG
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...