discussion on 2023-09-25

000
FXUS61 KOKX 260326
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1126 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnant low of Ophelia, located south of Long Island late
this afternoon, will drift south through Tuesday night as strong
high pressure builds from southeastern Canada. The high will
extend into the mid Atlantic region and be in control from
Wednesday into early Thursday. An inverted trough will move
northward along the coast late Thursday through Friday and drift
offshore on Saturday as high pressure builds back in from the
north. The high will then remain into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed.
Previous forecast follows.

Rain bands (with likely/cat PoP) mainly across S CT and
central/eastern Long Island continue and should gradually drift
SE tonight. With the rain light, with only a few hundredths of
an inch occurring, have converted to light rain. PoP lowers to
chancy throughout later tonight as residual low level moisture
remains along with weak mid level forcing moving across from the
west.

Temps had cooled to 55-60 across the CWA late this afternoon,
and lows tonight won`t be much different, with lower 50s inland
and mid/upper 50s coastal/metro areas, while gusty NE winds
continue along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For Tuesday the last of the shower activity should be dropping
southward through the area, still likely passing to the south of
NYC metro and Long Island in the early afternoon. Breaks in the
overcast may develop inland in the afternoon, especially over S
CT, and slowly work their way southward Tue night, with skies
becoming mostly clear by late night in the lower Hudson Valley
and S CT, and partly cloudy elsewhere. Temps should reach the
lower 60s throughout Tue afternoon, and with cooler air moving
in as high pressure builds, temps late Tue night should bottom
out anywhere from the lower 50s in/around NYC, to the 40s
elsewhere, and maybe some upper 30s in some interior valley
spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered over southeastern Canada noses
down along the eastern slope of the Appalachians Wednesday into
Thursday, more typical of a fall/winter pattern. Meanwhile weak
upper ridging resides across southeastern Canada with a cutoff
low meandering across the upper midwest as the flow is weak.
Slightly below normal temperatures remain Wednesday into
Thursday.

The upper pattern becomes more progressive later Thursday into
Saturday as an amplifying trough moves into the west coast and a
ridge builds through the central United States.There is some
guidance uncertainty with a low/inverted trough moving northward
into the eastern ridge Thursday and Friday, and followed the
NBM. Also with the surface high retreating warmer air returns to
the area with temperatures near to slightly above normal Friday
into the beginning of next week. With the central US ridge
moving east the low/trough along the coast moves into the
western Atlantic Friday night into Saturday with dry weather
returning as the high to the north becomes reestablished.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak low pressure meanders just south of the region as high
pressure gradually builds in from the north early this week.


MVFR to IFR cigs transition to MVFR and remain there through
much of the TAF period. Improvement to VFR is expected after 21Z
Tuesday, though this could happen a few hours later than what
is currently forecast. Currently expecting VFR vsby to continue
through the night, though do expect MVFR vsby to affect
terminals at times overnight. MVFR vsby return Tuesday morning,
then improve around the same time cigs do, after 21Z.

NE wind 15-20 kt should persist into Tuesday. Gusts 20-30 kt,
with isolated gusts over 30 kt possible into this evening.
Speeds gradually decrease through the day on Tuesday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely due to changes in flight level categories.

Isolated gusts over 30 kt possible into this evening.

Return to VFR conditions after 21Z Tuesday, though this could
happen a few hours later than is currently forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: VFR. There is a low to moderate chance that MVFR
conditions linger into the first half of the night. NE wind
gusts near 20 kt. Gusts eventually subside at night.

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Daytime NE wind gusts 15-20
kt.


Thursday night and Friday: Chance of rain showers with MVFR
possible. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt mainly during the daytime.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Strong and gusty northeast to east winds will continue through
Monday night and into much of the day Tuesday as the remnant
low of Ophelia moves and remains to the south of the as high
pressure gradually builds south out of eastern Canada.
Winds have diminished across the central and eastern sound
waters, therefore the Gale Warning was converted to a Small
Craft Advisory through 6 pm Tuesday for these locations. Gale
warning continues on the ocean waters into daytime Tue, with
gusts 35-40 kt.

By Tuesday afternoon the strongest gusts will diminish, but a
strong easterly flow should still continue across the forecast
waters Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds from the
north. The flow becomes more northeasterly Friday into Saturday
as an inverted trough moves up along the coast. Ocean seas will
remain elevated at SCA levels Wednesday through at least
Saturday night. Ocean gusts may also reach SCA levels Friday
night and Saturday with an increased pressure gradient.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall of up to 1/2 inch is likely late this
afternoon into tonight across parts of S CT and eastern Long
Island. Hydrologic concerns unlikely.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --Persistent E-NE flow this week an an approaching full moon will
result in increasing astronomical levels and extra surge,
thereby resulting in multiple rounds of coastal flooding this
week. Mostly minor coastal flooding is expected although some
localized moderate coastal flooding is expected in the Peconic
Bay near Riverhead.

A high risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday at the
ocean beaches with an easterly swell. A high rip current
hazard remains in effect through Tuesday evening and will not be
extended into Wednesday as this afternoon`s Surf Zone Forecast
(SRFOKX) is the last issuance for the 2023 beach season. The
Surf Zone Forecast will resume for the 2024 beach season
Thursday afternoon, May 23, 2024.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to midnight EDT
     Tuesday night for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to midnight EDT
     Tuesday night for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ074-075.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to midnight EDT
     Tuesday night for NYZ080-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG/JP/MET
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BG/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...