discussion on 2023-09-26

000
FXUS61 KOKX 260647
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
247 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnant low of Ophelia will drift south through Tuesday
night as strong high pressure builds from southeastern Canada.
The high will extend into the mid Atlantic region and be in
control from Wednesday into early Thursday. An inverted trough
will move northward along the coast late Thursday through Friday
and drift offshore on Saturday as high pressure builds back in
from the north. The high will then remain into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Adjusted PoPs getting closer to daybreak as shower activity
begins to perk up again, at least that is the indication from
NWP. Thus have likely PoPs returning, especially further south
getting closer to daybreak. Lows overnight will be in the lower
50s inland and mid/upper 50s coastal/metro areas, while gusty
NE winds continue along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
For Tuesday the last of the shower activity should be dropping
southward through the area, still likely passing to the south of
NYC metro and Long Island in the early afternoon. Breaks in the
overcast may develop inland in the afternoon, especially over S
CT, and slowly work their way southward Tue night, with skies
becoming mostly clear by late night in the lower Hudson Valley
and S CT, and partly cloudy elsewhere. Temps should reach the
lower 60s throughout Tue afternoon, and with cooler air moving
in as high pressure builds, temps late Tue night should bottom
out anywhere from the lower 50s in/around NYC, to the 40s
elsewhere, and maybe some upper 30s in some interior valley
spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure centered over southeastern Canada noses
down along the eastern slope of the Appalachians Wednesday into
Thursday, more typical of a fall/winter pattern. Meanwhile weak
upper ridging resides across southeastern Canada with a cutoff
low meandering across the upper midwest as the flow is weak.
Slightly below normal temperatures remain Wednesday into
Thursday.

The upper pattern becomes more progressive later Thursday into
Saturday as an amplifying trough moves into the west coast and a
ridge builds through the central United States.There is some
guidance uncertainty with a low/inverted trough moving northward
into the eastern ridge Thursday and Friday, and followed the
NBM. Also with the surface high retreating warmer air returns to
the area with temperatures near to slightly above normal Friday
into the beginning of next week. With the central US ridge
moving east the low/trough along the coast moves into the
western Atlantic Friday night into Saturday with dry weather
returning as the high to the north becomes reestablished.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure south of Long Island will slowly move farther south
today into tonight as high pressure starts to build in from the
north.

Expecting rain to increase in coverage going into today with the
rain lingering most along the coastal terminals, including NYC
terminals and KISP. Here is where ceilings will be lower compared to
CT terminals and KSWF.

Mainly MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings are forecast going into and
throughout today. Visibilities are forecast to remain MVFR with the
rain. Some VFR visibilities could occur from time to time. Total
improvement to VFR for both ceiling and visibility first takes
place for KSWF this afternoon with the rest of the terminals
timing of total VFR forecast for this evening.

Gusty NE winds remain through the TAF period. Winds generally around
15 kt with gusts near 25 kt through today and then closer to 10 kt
with gusts near 20 kt for tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments will be likely going into today as the timing of the IFR
could be off by a few hours compared to TAF.

Also, conditions fluctuate between MVFR and IFR at different
times today.

Timing of improvement to VFR could be off by a few hours
compared to TAF as well.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late Tonight: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR but a chance of MVFR late Thursday night with a
chance of rain showers.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible at times. A chance of rain showers.
NE wind gusts 15-20 kt, mainly along the coast.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt, subsiding at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Strong and gusty northeast to east winds will continue through
the remainder of the overnight and into much of the day Tuesday
as the remnant low of Ophelia moves and remains to the south of
the as high pressure gradually builds south out of eastern
Canada. Winds have diminished across the central and eastern
sound waters, therefore the Gale Warning was converted to a
Small Craft Advisory through 6 pm Tuesday for these locations.
Gale warning continues on the ocean waters into daytime Tue,
with gusts 35-40 kt.

By Tuesday afternoon the strongest gusts will diminish, but a
strong easterly flow should still continue across the forecast
waters Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds from the
north. The flow becomes more northeasterly Friday into Saturday
as an inverted trough moves up along the coast. Ocean seas will
remain elevated at SCA levels Wednesday through at least
Saturday night. Ocean gusts may also reach SCA levels Friday
night and Saturday with an increased pressure gradient.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall of up to 1/2 inch is likely late this
afternoon into tonight across parts of S CT and eastern Long
Island. Hydrologic concerns unlikely.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Persistent E-NE flow this week an an approaching full moon will
result in increasing astronomical levels and extra surge,
thereby resulting in multiple rounds of coastal flooding this
week. Mostly minor coastal flooding is expected although some
localized moderate coastal flooding is expected in the Peconic
Bay near Riverhead.

A high risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday at the
ocean beaches with an easterly swell. A high rip current
hazard remains in effect through Tuesday evening and will not be
extended into Wednesday as this afternoon`s Surf Zone Forecast
(SRFOKX) is the last issuance for the 2023 beach season. The
Surf Zone Forecast will resume for the 2024 beach season
Thursday afternoon, May 23, 2024.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for NYZ074-075.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight
     EDT tonight for NYZ080-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...