000
FXUS61 KOKX 261730
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
130 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure slowly drifts south later today and tonight, followed
by high pressure building out of southeast Canada. The high will
remain in control for the mid week as it builds across Northern
New England on Thursday. The high will move east towards Nova
Scotia Friday. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure offshore makes
its way back towards the local area Thursday into Friday. High
pressure settles back southwest into the local area for the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to reflect
the most recent observations and placement/trends of showers.

Occluded low pressure continues to spin round and round south
and southeast of the area. The region continues to be locked in
on an ENE flow regime with high pressure north of the area
attempting to build. The winds will remain gusty closer to the
coast for today, although the pressure gradient does show signs
of weakening later this afternoon into tonight. Unfortunately
the unsettled weather continues for one more day. The latest
guidance is more bullish on light rain activity, especially
further south across the area for most of today. By late in the
afternoon and evening the mid level moisture pool begins to
drift south. The weakness in the 700 mb height field begins to
fill in towards evening. All the near term guidance shows the
area of light rain shift to the south slowly. Thus, have gone
likely PoPs primarily for the southern half of the area through
the first half of the afternoon. Afterwards PoPs lower from
north to south for the late day into the evening. Rainfall
amounts today will be up to or under a quarter of an inch.

By 0z the area should be completely dry. Clouds will hang tough
along southern coastal sections through a portion of tonight, with
at least some partial clearing further south closer to daybreak.
Therefore skies will go from mainly cloudy to partly cloudy across
southern portions, with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies across
northern portions tonight. This should result in temperatures
getting down into the 40s further north with the winds lighter away
from the coast, and lower half of the 50s primarily for NYC and much
of Long Island.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure building into northern New England, look for
partly to mostly sunny skies to finally return on Wednesday. The ENE
wind continues, although not as strong as it has been in recent
days. Due to more in the way of some sunshine temperatures should
get well into the 60s, especially across NE portions of the area as
Central and Eastern CT will be in closer proximity to the high, and
thus less cloud cover is expected there.

For Wednesday night look for partly cloudy to mostly clear skies to
start. Late at night and closer to early Thu AM however clouds to
the south may begin to push further north. Lows will range from the
middle and upper 40s in the cooler rural locations to the north, to
the 50s along the coast and in the metropolitan areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level ridging shifts east of the area while a sharpening
trough approaches Thursday into Friday. Left front quad of upper
level jet streak moves southeast of Long Island early Friday. Trough
axis moves across Friday night. Ridging resumes thereafter for the
weekend but steady trend early next week with flattening of upper
level ridge.

At the surface, high pressure shifts farther east from Northern New
England and Southeast Canada to the east moving towards Nova Scotia
Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, a low pressure wave from offshore
moves northwest into the local region. This will make for a chance
of showers and even some thunderstorms as multiple models indicate
elevated instability across the region for early Friday. Heavy rain
will be possible at times.

Drier conditions return for the weekend as high pressure re-
establishes itself across the area. This high pressure area will be
building in from the north and east.

The persistent gusty NE flow will remain Thursday into Friday and
then diminish for the weekend as high pressure building in weakens
the pressure gradient. Temperatures likewise for highs trend from
below normal Thursday and Friday, to near normal Saturday, and then
above normal for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure south of Long Island will slowly move farther south
today into tonight as high pressure starts to build in from the
north.

Rain is slowly clearing north to south, but is still occurring
at most terminals.Rain may linger most along the coastal
terminals, including NYC terminals and KISP. Here is where
ceilings will be lower compared to CT terminals and KSWF.

Mainly MVFR to occasional IFR and VFR ceilings are forecast
throughout today. Visibilities are forecast to remain MVFR to
VFR with the rain as it will be light. Total improvement to VFR
for both ceiling and visibility has taken place at KSWF and will with
the rest of the terminals this evening or tonight.

Gusty NE winds remain through this evening. Winds generally
around 12-15 kt with gusts near 25 kt through this evening and
then closer to 10 kt with gusts diminishing tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments will be likely going into today as the timing of the IFR
could be off by a few hours compared to TAF.

Low confidence on the IFR.

Timing of improvement to VFR could be off by a few hours
compared to TAF as well.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR but a chance of MVFR late Thursday night
with a chance of rain showers. Possible thunderstorms late at
night.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible at times. A chance of rain
showers. Possible thunderstorms in the morning. NE wind gusts
15-20 kt, mainly along the coast.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt, subsiding at
night.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
An ENE flow regime will continue into mid week, although the
stronger gusts begin to dissipate later today into this evening.
Gales will convert over to small crafts out on the ocean by this
evening and continuing through the night and likely into a portion
of Wednesday. For the nearshore waters small craft advisories
continue through tonight. By Wednesday the winds should fall below
small craft criteria on the the western nearshore waters and
possibly for the eastern nearshore waters. However, out on the ocean
small craft conditions will continue with elevated seas and marginal
small craft gusts. Elevated ocean seas in SCA range remain
Thursday into the start of the weekend. Thursday, all waters
are forecast to have sub-SCA wind gusts. Across the ocean, wind
gusts are forecast to reach near SCA thresholds at times
Thursday night through Saturday night. Otherwise, below SCA
conditions are forecast for the non-ocean waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Thursday night into Friday there will be chances for heavy
rainfall at times. Some minor flooding will be possible.
WPC shows a marginal risk of flash flooding on Friday. The
thinking now is flash flooding could be isolated with minor
nuisance flooding being more common, especially for low-lying
and poor drainage areas.

Otherwise, no other hydrologic issues expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Persistent E-NE flow this week and an approaching full moon
will result in increasing astronomical levels and extra surge,
thereby resulting in multiple rounds of coastal flooding this
week. Astronomical levels increase around 0.2 to 0.3 ft for
late this afternoon into tonight`s high tides with the higher
end of the range for generally more westerly tidal shoreline
locations.

For this afternoon into evening, the coastal flooding will be
more widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding.
Coastal flood advisories cover this. There are some shorelines
that are expected to have lower total water levels, less surge,
so those will have more isolated minor coastal flooding and
again coastal flood statements cover that. For most locations,
around 1.5 to 2 ft of surge is needed to reach minor coastal
flooding and around 2.5 to 3 ft is needed for moderate coastal
flooding. The localized moderate coastal flooding would probably
be for Freeport and possibly Riverhead with the high tide cycle
tonight.

From the model surge guidance, it appears the highest of the total
water level forecasts will be tonight comparing to forecasts over
the next few days. NE winds will be of less magnitude Wednesday
and Thursday especially compared to NE winds expected today so
that will make for less surge.

There has been a long period of NE flow allowing for the shorelines
to the right of the wind to have extra piling of water from extra
surge due to Ekman transport. The most impacted coastlines are
forecast to be the Lower NY Harbor, South Shore Bays of Long
Island as well as Peconic Bay plus the Long Island Sound
shorelines of Westchester NY and Fairfield CT. Other shorelines
such as near the Battery, north facing shorelines of Western
Suffolk, Nassau and NYC will have minor coastal flooding but not
as widespread and with less surge, these locations are getting
total water level forecasts that just reach minor coastal flood
benchmarks.

Looking ahead for mid to late week, there will still be potential
for minor coastal flooding as astronomical tides remain high with
continued NE flow.

A high risk of rip currents continues through early this evening at
the ocean beaches with an easterly swell. A high rip current hazard
will therefore remain in effect through this evening and will not be
extended into Wednesday as yesterday`s Surf Zone Forecast (SRFOKX)
was the last issuance for the 2023 beach season. The Surf Zone
Forecast will resume for the 2024 beach season Thursday afternoon,
May 23, 2024.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ074-
     075.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ079-
     081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ080-
     178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-
     106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/JM
NEAR TERM...JE/MW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE/JM
HYDROLOGY...JE/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...