000
FXUS61 KOKX 261949
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
349 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from the north through the middle of the
week. The high remains centered over northern New England late this week
as a weak area of low pressure passes offshore. High pressure then
builds back into the Northeast this weekend, remaining in place
into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Stubborn low pressure over the Western Atlantic is finally
nudged south tonight as high pressure moves in from the north.
This will bring an end to the showers this evening with skies
generally becoming clearer tonight. While high pressure
continues to build in, the pressure gradient remains fairly
tight over the area so brisk easterly/northeasterly winds with
some gusts are expected this evening and through the overnight,
gradually diminishing into morning. Lows tonight will be in the
40s for the interior areas away from the immediate coast. The
coolest spots may drop into the lower 40s. The NYC metro and
immediate coast may not drop out of the 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure continues to build into the Northeast from the
north on Wednesday. This should result in dry conditions with
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Ample sunshine is expected
to allow temperatures to rise into the middle 60s for most with
some locations to the north climbing into the 70s due to
clearer skies expected in proximity to the center of the high.
E/NE flow will continue with a few gusts upwards of 20 mph.
For Wednesday night look for partly cloudy to mostly clear skies to
start. Late at night and closer to early Thu AM however clouds to
the south may begin to push further north. Lows will range from the
middle and upper 40s in the cooler rural locations to the north, to
the 50s along the coast and in the metropolitan areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A 1030 mb surface high pressure remains anchored over far northern
New England and the Canadian Maritimes late this week, maintaining
an onshore easterly flow. Meanwhile, lifting upper trough attempts
to push east into the region Thu/Fri, as broad low surface low
pressure offshore meanders a bit closer to the coast. This
reintroduces rain chances Thu night through Friday, with the moist
air mass, relatively cool air aloft, and nearby jet streak in the
flow potentially helping to enhance the rainfall. Can`t entirely
rule out a few thunderstorms on Friday with a hint of elevated CAPE
in BUFKIT soundings, as well as locally heavy downpours. WPC
currently has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall outlines for the
entire region, indicating localized flash flooding is possible.
Drier conditions return this weekend as the low exits. Ridging over
the Midwest amplifies and gradually shifts east into the local
region as surface high pressure builds back to to our west,
maintaining dry weather through early next week. After days of
temperatures in the 60s, 70s make a return this weekend and early
next week. It`s possible the urban metro could eclipse 80 on Monday
-- which is right around the average time of year of the last 80
degree day. Stayed close to the National Blend of Models for this
update.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low pressure south of Long Island will slowly move farther south
this evening into tonight as high pressure starts to build in from
the north.
This is allowing rain to clear north to south. Rain may linger
most along the coastal terminals, including NYC terminals and
KISP through the evening before clearing tonight. Ceilings may
remain lower here, at times, until the rain clears.
Mainly MVFR to occasional IFR and VFR ceilings and visibilities are
forecast this evening. Visibilities are forecast to remain MVFR to
VFR with the rain as it will be light, until this evening.
Total improvement to VFR for both ceiling and visibility has
taken place at KSWF and will with the rest of the terminals this
evening or tonight.
Gusty NE winds remain through this evening. Winds generally around
12-15 kt with gusts near 25 kt through this evening and then closer
to 10 kt with gusts diminishing tonight.
VFR tonight and tomorrow.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of MVFR/IFR becoming VFR as rain and low ceilings clear may
be off by a few hours in the TAFs and may require an amendment.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR but a chance of MVFR late Thursday night with a
chance of rain showers. Possible thunderstorms late at night.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible at times. A chance of rain showers.
Possible thunderstorms in the morning. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt,
mainly along the coast.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt, subsiding at night.
Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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An ENE flow regime will continue into mid week, although the
stronger gusts begin to dissipate this evening. Gales will
convert over to small crafts out on the ocean by this evening
and continuing through the night. For the nearshore waters,
small craft advisories continue through tonight. By Wednesday
the winds should fall below small craft criteria on the non-
ocean waters. However, out on the ocean small craft conditions
will continue with elevated seas and marginal small craft gusts.
Ocean seas remain elevated at or above 5 ft through this weekend. In
addition, easterly wind gusts may exceed 25 kt late Thursday through
Saturday on the ocean.
Conditions are expected to largely remain below SCA criteria on non
ocean waters Thursday through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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With wet antecedent conditions, locally heavy downpours Thursday
night and Friday could lead to nuisance flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas. WPC currently has a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall outlined for the entire region, indicating localized flash
flooding is possible as well.
Otherwise, no other hydrologic issues expected through early next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Persistent E-NE flow with an an approaching full moon will result in
increasing astronomical levels and continued surge buildup into this
aft/eve high tide. South shore bays areas of LI and Queens could hit
localized moderate flood levels (inundation of 2 ft agl) due to the
continued tidal piling. Otherwise, localized to scattered minor
coastal flood impacts likely for much of the remainder of the
coastline.
Localized minor coastal flooding possible for the Wed aft/eve high
tide, and then a better chance for both tidal cycles for the late
week across vulnerable south shore bays of LI/NYC, NY/NJ Harbor, and
W LIS locales with continued rising astronomical tides (as low a s
1/4-1/2 ft needed to reach minor) and persistent E/NE flow and
easterly wind wave/swell.
4 to 7 ft breaking waves today will gradually subside late tonight
into Wednesday to 3 to 5 ft, and likely remain through the week.
Scattered dune erosion threat will last for one or two more tidal
cycles. The potential for localized overwashes is low. The beach
erosion/flooding threat will decrease for the late week, but still
still linger with elevated water levels and rough surf.
NOTE1: A high risk of rip currents will continue through the week,
but with the poor beach conditions through the week, our surf zone
forecast season will end with the rip current statement expiration
this evening. We will resume just before Memorial Day next year.
NOTE2: The Peconic River at Riverhead tidal gauge is out of service
(too high). The gauge is being looked into by our partners at the
USGS.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
tonight for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT
tonight for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ074-
075.
High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ079-
081.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ080-
178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...