000
FXUS61 KOKX 301809
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
209 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore low pressure will continue to track out into the western
Atlantic, while high pressure builds in through the middle of
next week. The high may start to move offshore at the end of
the week as the next frontal system approaches from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Just minor update to temperatures and dewpoints with this
afternoon update to better reflect current observations.
Otherwise, mainly light rain/drizzle across much of the area.
The rain/drizzle will continue to work offshore during the
afternoon into early evening hours from west to east.
N-NE winds today will gusts up to 20 mph, mainly at the coast.
Some clearing can be expected late this afternoon for western
sections, mainly from NYC and areas north and west.
Highs today will top out in the lower to middle 60s, which is
about 5 degrees below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low/trough departs to the east this evening with a
anomalously (+2SD) strong upper ridge building in from the west
for the upcoming week. This will lead to unseasonably warm, dry
conditions.
For highs on Sunday, took a blend of the NBM and its 90th
percentile as a middle ground to account for the warmer MOS.
Highs will top out mainly in the middle and upper 70s, but
cooler across eastern LI. This is also above normal by about 5
degrees. Near normal lows Sunday morning will warm several
degrees as well heading into Monday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There has not been much change to the overall forecast thinking for
the upcoming week. The deterministic global models and ensemble
means are in good agreement with the large scale pattern across the
CONUS through much of the week with deep-layered ridging over the
central and eastern states and troughing over the west. Differences
start to arise late in the week with the timing of the ridge
breaking down/shifting to the western Atlantic and the approach of a
larger upper trough at the end of the week.
A strong high pressure will dominate through Thursday with dry
conditions. The high is progged to shift offshore at the end of the
week in response to the ridge breaking down/shifting offshore and
the approaching upper trough. An associated cold front is progged to
approach on Friday, but there is a large amount of uncertainty on
the timing. A faster timing of the front would bring some showers to
the area next Friday. A slower timing would delay the passage and
any showers until next Friday night or next Saturday.
A warming trend in temperatures is expected next week with highs
above normal. Highs on Monday look to be in the lower to middle 70s,
then increase to the upper 70s on Tuesday. Model consensus has
Wednesday as the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 70s
to potentially the lower 80s in the normal warmer spots of NE NJ and
the NYC metro. Highs to end the week should be in the lower to
middle 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Offshore low pressure will continue to track out into the western
Atlantic. Any remaining light showers or pockets of drizzle will
continue to taper off through 20Z. Any IFR/MVFR conditions
improve to VFR after 21-23Z.
Winds are N around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt. Gusts
should taper tonight and remain N less than 10 kt through much
of the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible this afternoon to address changes in flight
category deviating from forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Expect SCA conditions to end across the non-ocean waters later
this morning with occasional gusts up to 25 kt possible
for a brief time thereafter. For the ocean waters, SCA
conditions in a N-NE flow around 20kt, with gusts around 25 kt,
and seas of 6 to 8 ft today, will gradually subside tonight
into Sunday. SCA seas may linger into Monday morning.
Sub-SCA conditions are forecast Monday through the middle of
the week with a weak pressure gradient in place over the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Light rain through early this afternoon. Outside of any
residual flooding and rivers that are elevated, no additional
significant rainfall is expected.
No hydrologic impacts are expected next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides combined with a persistent NE flow, and an E-
SE wind wave/swell should restrict tidal drainage and prolong minor
coastal flood potential into Sunday and possibly Monday, mainly for
the AM high tide cycles. Advy was extended into Sunday for the south
shore of Queens/Nassau and the western shores of CT including
Westchester. Statements cover most of the remaining shorelines for
the upcoming high tide cycle only.
In addition, continued beach erosion will continue through at least
Saturday due to elevated water levels, 4-6 ft breaking surf, and a
strong E-W longshore current. Dune erosion potential looks to be
localized, with overwashes not expected.
NOTE: The Peconic River at Riverhead tidal gauge is out of service
(had been reading too high). The gauge is being looked into by our
partners at the USGS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ006-106-
108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...