000
FXUS61 KOKX 301951
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore low pressure will continue to track out into the western
Atlantic, while high pressure builds in through the middle of
next week. The high may start to move offshore at the end of
the week as the next frontal system approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Light drizzle across our eastern zones should wind down by later
this afternoon and early evening. Some clearing is expected
late this afternoon across NYC and areas north and west as the
upper low departs and a strong upper ridge builds in from the
west. This will lead to unseasonably warm and dry conditions.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes
resulting in lots of sunshine with highs in the mid to upper
70s, but cooler across eastern LI with an onshore flow. This is
also above normal by about 5 degrees. Overnight lows Sunday will
be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging over the Northeast will promote an extended
period of dry weather through the midweek period. Monday through
Thursday will be dry with above-normal temperatures, thanks to the
ridge aloft.

A 500mb trough then digs into the Great Lakes Region on Friday. This
will help push a cold front through the forecast area at some point
Friday night into Saturday. Showers in association with the front as
well as moisture increasing from off the Atlantic ahead of the front
will bring a chance of showers across the area starting on Friday,
with higher overall chances Friday night and Saturday as the cold
front passes through. Highs both days will be cooler and closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Offshore low pressure will continue to track out into the western
Atlantic. Any remaining light showers or pockets of drizzle will
continue to taper off through 21Z. KGON may hold onto showers
through the early evening. Any IFR/MVFR conditions expected to
improve to VFR after 21-00Z

Winds are N around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt. Gusts
should taper tonight and remain N less than 10 kt through much of
the TAF period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible this afternoon to address the timing of
improving flight categories.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions expected to remain for the ocean waters as a
lingering swell maintains wave heights up to 5 feet through
Monday. Sub- SCA conditions are then forecast Monday night
through the middle of the week with a weak pressure gradient in
place over the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides combined with a persistent NE flow, and an E-
SE wind wave/swell should restrict tidal drainage and prolong minor
coastal flood potential into Sunday and possibly Monday, mainly for
the AM high tide cycles. Advy was extended into Sunday for the south
shore of Queens/Nassau and the western shores of CT including
Westchester. Statements cover most of the remaining shorelines for
the upcoming high tide cycle only.

In addition, continued beach erosion will continue through at least
Saturday due to elevated water levels, 4-6 ft breaking surf, and a
strong E-W longshore current. Dune erosion potential looks to be
localized, with overwashes not expected.

NOTE: The Peconic River at Riverhead tidal gauge is out of service
(had been reading too high). The gauge is being looked into by our
partners at the USGS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ006-106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/20
HYDROLOGY...JC/20
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...