000
FXUS61 KOKX 302321
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore low pressure will continue to track out into the western
Atlantic, while high pressure builds in through the middle of
next week. The high may start to move offshore at the end of
the week as the next frontal system approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Showers, mainly light in intensity, will still be possible this
evening across eastern LI and SE CT. Otherwise, diminishing
clouds for tonight as an upper low departs and a strong upper
ridge begins to build in from the west. Low temperatures tonight
will be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes
resulting in lots of sunshine with highs in the mid to upper
70s, but cooler across eastern LI with an onshore flow. This is
also above normal by about 5 degrees. Overnight lows Sunday will
be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging over the Northeast will promote an extended
period of dry weather through the midweek period. Monday through
Thursday will be dry with above-normal temperatures, thanks to the
ridge aloft.

A 500mb trough then digs into the Great Lakes Region on Friday. This
will help push a cold front through the forecast area at some point
Friday night into Saturday. Showers in association with the front as
well as moisture increasing from off the Atlantic ahead of the front
will bring a chance of showers across the area starting on Friday,
with higher overall chances Friday night and Saturday as the cold
front passes through. Highs both days will be cooler and closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Offshore low pressure will continue moving further away from the
region tonight. Some pockets of light rain or drizzle are
possible this evening across Long Island and southern
Connecticut. Conditions should be dry after 03z with VFR
prevailing through Sunday.

NNW-NNE winds mainly under 10 kt tonight. N winds increase
Sunday morning, becoming 10-13 kt late morning in the afternoon.
The direction may back towards the NNW in the afternoon before
wind speeds diminish in the evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief MVFR cig possible through 01z.

Winds could vary from the NW to the NE, but speeds will largely
remain below 10 kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night Through Thursday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions expected to remain for the ocean waters as a
lingering swell maintains wave heights up to 5 feet through
Monday. Sub-SCA conditions are then forecast Monday night
through the middle of the week with a weak pressure gradient in
place over the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood advisories remain unchanged and remain in effect
through Sunday morning`s high tide cycle. Where advisories are in
effect, minor flooding might be more on the isolated side with
tonight`s high tide cycle. Statements weren`t needed tonight
elsewhere.

The only change to the headlines was go with a statement for
Brooklyn and Staten Island Sunday morning as isolated areas may
briefly touch minimal flooding benchmarks.

For Monday, statements may still be needed for the south shore back
bays of Nassau and Queens as well as Southern Westchester and
Southern Fairfield Counties.


NOTE: The Peconic River at Riverhead tidal gauge is out of service
(had been reading too high). The gauge is being looked into by our
partners at the USGS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for NJZ006-106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/20
HYDROLOGY...JC/20
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...