000
FXUS61 KOKX 011345
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
945 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore low pressure will continue to track out into the
western Atlantic, while high pressure builds in through mid
week. The high will then give way to a frontal system at the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast generally on track this morning. Biggest change was to
add haze to the grids. Skies are quite hazy especially east of
NYC due to smoke from Canadian wildfires but otherwise cloud
free.

A highly amplified upper flow across the Lower 48 features a
departing upper low off the East Coast and an upper ridge
centered just east of the Mississippi River Valley. Out west,
there is an upper low over the Great Basin. While blocky, the
pattern will gradually translate east through the week with
building heights across the eastern seaboard. This will result
in dry, warm conditions, which will start today as highs
generally get up into the mid and upper 70s (a bit cooler across
eastern Long Island). Winds will be northerly.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not much change during this time as temperatures work upward
heading into Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be around 80 for
many locations, with the 70s elsewhere. These readings will be
about 7 to 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will be mild
as well, from the 50s to around 60. Locations that typically
radiate well may get closer to around 50. Winds will also be
light during this time as the high builds across the area.
Seabreezes are likely in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep layered ridging over the Northeast will promote an extended
period of dry weather through the mid week period. It will
remain dry with above normal temperatures.

A 500 mb trough then digs into the Great Lakes Region on
Friday. This will help push a cold front through the forecast
area at some point Friday night into Saturday. The global models
over the last 24h have trended to a more amplified system, even
hinting a the the upper trough taking on a negative tilt. Still
though, it`s much too early to be too specific with the timing,
but there remains a chance of showers across the area starting
on Friday, with higher overall chances Friday night and Saturday
as the frontal system moves into the areas. Highs both days
will be cooler and closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as offshore low pressure continues to track out into the
western Atlantic, while high pressure builds in through mid
week.

Fog at KSWF should burn off early this AM, so otherwise VFR with
N flow either side of 10 kt, higher at the NYC metros. Winds
diminish to under 10 kt mostly after 21Z.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions expected to remain for the ocean waters as a
lingering E swell maintains wave heights 4-6 ft through
tonight, possibly lingering into Monday. Sub SCA conditions are
then forecast Monday night through the middle of the week with a
weak pressure gradient in place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood advisories remain in effect for today`s high tide
cycle for S Nassau and for S Fairfield/Westchester. Minor flooding
is no longer expected with tonight`s high tide cycle in these areas,
but may just barely occur with the late AM/early afternoon high tide
cycle on Monday.

Statements for water levels just touching minor thresholds during
today`s high tide cycle are also in effect for NE NJ harbor areas
and for parts of CT/Long Island.

NOTE: The Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge is out of
service for unrepresentative data (water levels about 3 ft too
high). The gauge is being looked into by our partners at the USGS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...BC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...