000
FXUS61 KOKX 011920
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
320 PM EDT Sun Oct 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build in through mid week. The high will
then give way to a frontal system at the end of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure continues to build into the region tonight with
mostly clear skies and light winds. As a result, some patchy fog
may develop. Any leftover haze from the Canadian wildfires are
expected to remain across the far eastern sections of the
forecast areas. Lows tonight will fall into the 50s, except
lower 60s in and around the NYC metro area.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Ridging at the surface and aloft continue through the short
term period with rising heights. It will remain dry and cloud
free. Expect temperatures on Monday to climb into the middle and
upper 70s. A northerly flow however is expected to usher in
additional smoke/haze from the Canadian wildfires. The latest
HRRR smoke fields showing most if not all of the forecast area
seeing some smoke aloft. So will include haze once again in the
forecast for the the entire region on Monday.

Monday night lows will fall into 50s with the NYC metro
remaining in the lower 60s. It will remain mostly clear with
relatively light winds, so some patchy fog can not be ruled out.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Deep layered ridging over the Northeast will promote an
extended period of dry weather through the mid week period. It
will remain dry through Thursday with above normal temperatures.


A 500 mb trough then digs into the Great Lakes Region on
Friday. This will help push a cold front through the forecast
area at some point Friday night into Saturday. The global models
over the last 24h continue the trend to a more amplified
system, with the upper trough taking on a negative tilt. It`s
still too early to be too specific with the timing, but there
remains a chance of showers across the area starting late
Thursday night as moisture filters in from the Atlantic. Highest
overall chances appear to be Friday night and Saturday as the
frontal system moves into the area. Highs both days will be
cooler and closer to normal. The system should be off to the
east on Sunday, but the upper trough remains over the region
with a cyclonic flow aloft. Breezy and noticeably cooler as high
pressure attempts to build in from the northwest.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR as High pressure builds in through the middle of the week.

VFR conditions continue through Monday. A northerly flow around
10 kt, higher at the NYC terminals, will diminish to under 10 kt
after 21Z.

Smoke from the Canadian wildfires could funnel some smoke/haze
aloft on Monday impacting area terminals visibility to below 10
miles.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR possible in showers.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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SCA conditions expected to remain for the ocean waters as a
lingering E swell maintains wave heights 4-6 ft through Monday.
Sub SCA conditions are then forecast Monday night through the
middle of the week with a weak pressure gradient in place. Winds
and seas then increase Friday into the Friday night with the
approach of a cold front. There is a chance that seas on the
ocean build to 5 ft by the end of Friday night.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Widespread minor coastal flooding is not anticipated with
tonight`s high tide cycle. A statement may however be needed for
Monday`s late morning/early afternoon high tide cycle in a few
locations as localized minor flooding is still possible. Not
even out of the question for an advisory to be needed. Will wait
for updated guidance and monitor gauge observation trends
before issuing any new headlines.

NOTE: The Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge is out of
service for unrepresentative data (water levels about 3 ft too
high). The gauge is being looked into by our partners at the
USGS.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...20
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...