000
FXUS61 KOKX 021129
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
729 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in through mid week. The high will give
way to a frontal system at the end of the week into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fcst on track as of 6 AM. Tweaked grids mostly to trend from
current obs to the afternoon fcst.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue, with dry
conditions and lack of cloud cover, though HRRR smoke forecast
does indicate a good deal of smoke from Canadian wildfires
advecting southward into the entire CWA today, especially NW
of NYC. High temps today will be on the high side of the
NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS guidance, generally 75-80.
Under clear skies and light winds tonight, low temps should
vary widely, from 60-65 in/just outside the NYC urban heat
island, to the upper 40s in the interior valleys and Long Island
Pine Barrens. Expect some patchy river and valley fog to form
once again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep layered ridging will promote an extended period of dry and
warm wx with mostly clear skies, but with wildfire haze
continuing, also patchy late night/early morning river/valley
fog. NAM indicates potential for more widespread late
night/early morning low clouds/fog but think its blyr moisture
is overdone, and it typically takes a couple nights of direct
onshore flow for this to develop which should not be the case.
High temps on Tue and Wed should be warmer, with widespread
lower 80s except at immediate south facing shorelines. Also, a
more onshore flow Wed should keep highs across Long Island and
coastal CT in the mid/upper 70s. Low temps Tue night should
range from 65-70 invof NYC to the mid 50s in the typically
colder inland/pine barrens spots.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
We remain under the influence of high pressure Wednesday night
through Thursday night with the high centered well to our
northeast and deep layered ridging slowly shifting east.
Heights start to lower early Thursday as an upper level trough
approaches the area. This will help push a cold front through
the area sometime on Saturday. A return flow sets up early
Thursday, with pwats reaching near 1.75 inches by early Saturday
per the 02/00Z GFS which is well over the 90% moving average
for KOKX. The system looks progressive and the current NBM has
about a 25-35% chance of the area seeing 1 inch of rain in the
24 hr period ending 00Z Sunday. Chances for showers start
Friday and becomes likely Friday night. Chances then linger
through Saturday night.
The system should be off to the east on Sunday, but the
associated upper trough should remain over the region with a
cyclonic flow aloft. Conds will be breezy and noticeably cooler
as high pressure attempts to build from the northwest.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mainly VFR through the middle of the week as high pressure
builds over the Northeast.
Winds likely increase and veer to the NNE or NE through the
rest of the morning. Wind speeds should then remain 10 kt or
less. There is a chance for a late afternoon or early evening
sea breeze along the coast, mainly for KJFK and KISP, but wind
speeds likely end up light.
Some smoke/haze from Canadian wildfires will keep skies hazy
today. Haze aloft is possible late this morning and afternoon
with potential for visibility to lower to around 6SM for most
terminals. KSWF and KHPN likely see 5SM vsby.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Haze likely stays aloft today, but a drop to 5SM vsby can not be
completely ruled out during the afternoon hours.
THE AFTERNOON KJFK, KLGA AND KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS
YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF
CLOUD.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late tonight Through Thursday night...VFR.
Friday...Chance of late day showers with MVFR cond.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas continue to slowly subside, and expect them to finally drop
below 5 ft on the outer coastal waters mid to late afternoon.
Quiet cond late this afternoon through Thu night with high
pressure in control, then winds/seas increase Fri into Fri night
with the approach of a cold front. There is a chance that ocean
seas build to 5 ft by late Fri night and for wind gusts to
reach 25 kt Sat night. Seas likely peak at 7-8 ft Sat night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected attm.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Sided with NYHOPS ensemble central forecast guidance (bias
corrected from the last two high tide cycles), which indicates
one last round of minor coastal flooding is expected, with
water levels just touching or barely surpassing thresholds, for
S Nassau and S Fairfield/Westchester. Can`t totally rule out
water levels touching the minor threshold at the Freeport gauge
again on Tue, but attm forecast remains just below.
NOTE: The Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge remains out
of service for unrepresentative data (water levels about 3 ft
too high). The gauge is being looked into by our partners at the
USGS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BG/JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...