000
FXUS61 KOKX 021743
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
143 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in through mid week. The high will give
way to a frontal system at the end of the week into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Raised temperatures a few degrees compared to previous forecast.
Reduced the haze in the forecast. Visible satellite not showing
any discernible haze or smoke in the area, but it is showing
some cumulus development north and west of NYC.
HRRR has been overestimating the smoke in the area from
Canadian wildfires so reduced the haze in the forecast and left
some in Lower Hudson Valley into Western Passaic NJ and Northern
Fairfield CT vicinity where HRRR had relatively higher
concentrations of smoke this afternoon. However, this haze may
need to get reduced further in subsequent forecasts.
Increased clouds within the Lower Hudson Valley, especially
western Orange County and did not raise temperatures here.
Forecast highs overall mid 70s to lower 80s.
Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue, with dry
conditions and lack of cloud cover. Northerly wind flow will
allow for some downslope so some coastal locations will get
relatively warmer than locations farther north.
Under clear skies and light winds tonight, low temps should
vary widely, from 60-65 in/just outside the NYC urban heat
island, to the upper 40s in the interior valleys and Long Island
Pine Barrens. Expect some patchy river and valley fog to form
once again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep layered ridging will promote an extended period of dry and
warm wx with mostly clear skies, but with wildfire haze
continuing, also patchy late night/early morning river/valley
fog. NAM indicates potential for more widespread late
night/early morning low clouds/fog but think its blyr moisture
is overdone, and it typically takes a couple nights of direct
onshore flow for this to develop which should not be the case.
High temps on Tue and Wed should be warmer, with widespread
lower 80s except at immediate south facing shorelines. Also, a
more onshore flow Wed should keep highs across Long Island and
coastal CT in the mid/upper 70s. Low temps Tue night should
range from 65-70 invof NYC to the mid 50s in the typically
colder inland/pine barrens spots.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We remain under the influence of high pressure Wednesday night
through Thursday night with the high centered well to our
northeast and deep layered ridging slowly shifting east.
Heights start to lower early Thursday as an upper level trough
approaches the area. This will help push a cold front through
the area sometime on Saturday. A return flow sets up early
Thursday, with pwats reaching near 1.75 inches by early Saturday
per the 02/00Z GFS which is well over the 90% moving average
for KOKX. The system looks progressive and the current NBM has
about a 25-35% chance of the area seeing 1 inch of rain in the
24 hr period ending 00Z Sunday. Chances for showers start
Friday and becomes likely Friday night. Chances then linger
through Saturday night.
The system should be off to the east on Sunday, but the
associated upper trough should remain over the region with a
cyclonic flow aloft. Conds will be breezy and noticeably cooler
as high pressure attempts to build from the northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through midweek as high pressure builds over the Northeast.
N/NE flow around 10 kt or less today. Possible late afternoon
sea breeze along the coast, mainly for KJFK and KISP. Light and
variable flow tonight becomes WNW on Tuesday, speeds under 10
kt. More widespread sea breeze expected Tuesday afternoon, winds
becoming S/SW.
A bit of smoke from Canadian wildfires may add some haze to
skies today. Latest surface obs and visible satellite imagery
upstream do not indicate much vsby restriction, so continued to
omit mention from TAFs at this time. Will continue to monitor
through the day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Vsby restriction to MVFR cannot be entirely ruled out from
afternoon haze.
Timing of potential wind shift with coastal sea breezes may be
off by a couple of hours today and Tuesday.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday through Thursday night...VFR.
Friday...Chance of late day showers with MVFR or lower conds
Saturday...MVFR or lower early with showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Ocean seas currently running a little lower than forecast but
did not make any changes to current SCAs. SCAs set to expire
during this afternoon across the ocean but confidence is
lowering on whether seas get to 5 ft. Conditions might very
well stay below SCA thresholds this afternoon on the ocean.
Quiet cond late this afternoon through Thu night with high
pressure in control, then winds/seas increase Fri into Fri night
with the approach of a cold front. There is a chance that ocean
seas build to 5 ft by late Fri night and for wind gusts to
reach 25 kt Sat night. Seas likely peak at 7-8 ft Sat night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected attm.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Sided with NYHOPS ensemble central forecast guidance (bias
corrected from the last two high tide cycles), which indicates
one last round of minor coastal flooding is expected, with
water levels just touching or barely surpassing thresholds, for
S Nassau and S Fairfield/Westchester. Can`t totally rule out
water levels touching the minor threshold at the Freeport gauge
again on Tue, but attm forecast remains just below.
NOTE: The Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge remains out
of service for unrepresentative data (water levels about 3 ft
too high). The gauge is being looked into by our partners at the
USGS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG/JM
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BG/JT
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...