000
FXUS61 KOKX 021910
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
310 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in through mid week. The high will give
way to a frontal system at the end of the week into the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast mainly on track with minor adjustments to temperatures
and dewpoints as well as cloud coverage to better match with
observed trends. Forecast highs for much of the region will be
in the upper 70s to around 80.
The region will remain on the eastern side of an upper level
ridge which will not exhibit much changes in geopotential
height. At the surface, the center of high pressure will get
within closer proximity to the region. The pressure gradient
will be weak allowing for winds to diminish. Subsidence from the
ridging will lead to mainly clear sky conditions.
HRRR continues to overestimate the amount of smoke in the area
so further reduced the haze in the forecast. Only have some
haze in the forecast for more interior parts of the region where
HRRR was showing relatively higher concentration of smoke but
confidence of the haze occurring continues to be low. The
forecast does not have any mention of haze for tonight.
Used the relatively cooler MET guidance for low temperatures
tonight.
Usually like to take the coldest of MOS with high pressure
moving overhead, as this sets up optimal radiational cooling
conditions with clear sky conditions and calm winds.
The MET guidance conveys a more vast range of lows to better
depict the range of temperatures from mid to upper 40s in Pine
Barrens of LI and interior valleys to mainly lower 60s within
the NYC Metro.
Also, expecting temperatures to fall right to the dewpoint in
quite a few locations late tonight into early Tuesday morning,
allowing for low level saturation. Patchy fog is expected,
especially in outlying and river valley locations. While NAM
BUFKIT sounding profiles seems to be over-forecasting the
amount of moisture, there are hints of this fog development as
well within the RAP BUFKIT sounding profiles.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The upper level ridge continues to move in with its axis
approaching closer for Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure
will remain near but become centered more to the south of the
region. Models indicate some daytime trough development within
the forecast region. Models also convey 850mb temperatures
increasing a few degrees with values mainly between 16 and 18
degrees C.
Went on the higher side of forecast guidance, and chose the ECS
as well as MAV and MET guidance with some minor adjustments
upward. Surface westerly flow component will also allow for
relatively higher temperatures along the coast and Twin Forks.
The westerly flow and ridging will allow for mostly sunny
conditions overall for Tuesday with any fog in the morning
burning off relatively quickly.
High temps Wed should be widespread lower 80s except at
immediate south facing shorelines. Also, a more onshore flow Wed
should keep highs across Long Island and coastal CT in the
mid/upper 70s. Low temps Tue night should range from 65-70 invof
NYC to the mid 50s in the typically colder inland/pine barrens
spots.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
We remain under the influence of high pressure Wednesday night
through Thursday night with the high centered well to our
northeast and deep layered ridging slowly shifting east.
Heights start to lower early Thursday as an upper level trough
approaches the area. This will help push a cold front through
the area sometime on Saturday. A return flow sets up early
Thursday, with pwats reaching near 1.75 inches by early Saturday
per the 02/00Z GFS which is well over the 90% moving average
for KOKX. The system looks progressive and the current NBM has
about a 25-35% chance of the area seeing 1 inch of rain in the
24 hr period ending 00Z Sunday. Chances for showers start
Friday and becomes likely Friday night. Chances then linger
through Saturday night.
The system should be off to the east on Sunday, but the
associated upper trough should remain over the region with a
cyclonic flow aloft. Conds will be breezy and noticeably cooler
as high pressure attempts to build from the northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through midweek as high pressure builds over the Northeast.
N/NE flow around 10 kt or less today. Possible late afternoon
sea breeze along the coast, mainly for KJFK and KISP. Light and
variable flow tonight becomes WNW on Tuesday, speeds under 10
kt. More widespread sea breeze expected Tuesday afternoon, winds
becoming S/SW.
A bit of smoke from Canadian wildfires may add some haze to
skies today. Latest surface obs and visible satellite imagery
upstream do not indicate much vsby restriction, so continued to
omit mention from TAFs at this time. Will continue to monitor
through the day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Vsby restriction to MVFR cannot be entirely ruled out from
afternoon haze.
Timing of potential wind shift with coastal sea breezes may be
off by a couple of hours today and Tuesday.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday through Thursday night...VFR.
Friday...Chance of late day showers with MVFR or lower conds
Saturday...MVFR or lower early with showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA no longer in effect for ocean west of Moriches Inlet where
ocean seas have lowered below 4 ft. Seas also lowering below 4
ft farther east so Moriches to Montauk looking increasingly
likely to drop below SCA before 5PM.
Conditions on the waters are likely to remain below SCA
thresholds tonight through Wednesday with high pressure
remaining in control.
Quiet conditions continue Wed night through Thu night with high
pressure in control, then winds/seas increase Fri into Fri
night with the approach of a cold front. There is a chance that
ocean seas build to 5 ft by late Fri night and for wind gusts to
reach 25 kt Sat night. Seas likely peak at 7-8 ft Sat night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Dry conditions are expected through midweek. No hydrologic
impacts are expected at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Sided with NYHOPS ensemble central forecast guidance (bias
corrected from the last two high tide cycles), which indicates
one last round of minor coastal flooding is expected, with water
levels just touching or barely surpassing thresholds, for S
Fairfield/Westchester. Can`t totally rule out water levels
touching the minor threshold at the Freeport gauge again on Tue,
but attm forecast remains just below.
NOTE: The Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge remains out
of service for unrepresentative data (water levels about 3 ft
too high). The gauge is being looked into by our partners at the
USGS.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...BG/JM
LONG TERM...BG/JT
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BG/JM/JT
HYDROLOGY...JM/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...