000
FXUS61 KOKX 031136
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
736 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region through Thursday will slowly
weaken beginning Thursday night, and give way to an approaching
frontal system on Friday. The associated cold front will pass
through late Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure will
then likely build from the south and west Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issues SPS for locally dense river/valley fog across interior SW
CT and the lower Hudson Vally. This fog should take til 14Z to
completely burn off. After it does so, sfc high pressure and a
building upper ridge will lead to warm conditions throughout
today. Sided with warmer GFS/ECMWF MOS numbers which worked
fairly well for yesterday`s temps, so expect highs in the mid
80s in urban NE NJ, and upper 70s/lower 80s most elsewhere, and
mid 70s only across the forks of Long Island and the immediate
shoreline of SE CT. Temps at a few sites may approach or exceed
daily record highs: see the Climate section for details.

Mostly clear skies and light winds should lead to excellent
radiational cooling conditions once again tonight, with lows
from the mid 60s invof NYC to the 50s inland and across eastern
Long Island. With higher dewpoints advecting into the area
expect fog development especially after midnight, and the fog
could become dense in spots late especially NW of NYC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Wed the low level flow should turn onshore as the sfc high
begins to move east, but do not think this will have much impact
on high temps, with mid 80s once again in NE NJ and lower 80s
most elsewhere. A second day of light onshore flow, perhaps
more in the way of cloud cover, and falling heights aloft as the
high move east should have more impact on temps on Thu, but it
should still be on the warm side, with highs mostly in the
mid/upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Heights aloft continue to lower Thursday night as the high
amplitude ridge axis shifts farther east, along with surface
high pressure, and an upper level trough approaches. The trough
becomes negatively tilted and closes off, with an upper level
low expected to linger over the northeast thereafter through the
forecast period. This will bring a period of below normal
temperatures for the second half of the weekend through at least
the start of next week.

As the upper level trough approaches, an associated surface low
will track well to our north and west. This low will drag a
cold front through the area late Saturday into Saturday night,
with the potential for a wave of low pressure to form along the
front over or near our area. The placement of this low will
affect rainfall totals, but right now the system overall
continues to look progressive. The NBM remains mostly unchanged
from 24 hours ago with the 25-35% chance of seeing 1 inch of
rain over the 24 hour period ending 00z Sunday. The GFS also
continues to show pwats increase to about 1.75 inches ahead of
the cold front on Saturday. Per SPC Sounding Climatology Page
this is well over the 90% moving average at KOKX for 10/07 12Z.
Rain chances increase Friday afternoon and become likely late
Friday night through Saturday. Rain then tapers off early
Sunday, with a mostly dry Sunday expected. Lingering light
showers are possible for the next several days with the
lingering upper level low, mainly north and west of NYC.

This cold front will bring the coolest air we have seen in
several months. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the mid 50s
to lower 60s, and lows each of those nights will range from the
lower 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Mainly VFR as high pressure settles over the area. KHPN has been the
only terminal affected by MVFR fog, but this remains possible at
KSWF as well through about 14z.

Light and variable winds early this morning become W to NW with
speeds remaining under 10 kt. Sea breeze development takes place in
the afternoon for coastal terminals from 18Z to 21Z, as the winds
become more SW to S. Light and variable winds and fog return tonight.
Thinking MVFR vsby should stay out of the NYC terminals. KSWF,
KHPN and KGON likely go down to at least MVFR.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of potential wind shift due to coastal sea breezes may be off
by a couple of hours on Tuesday.

Uncertainty in fog development for NYC terminals tonight. Vsby
likely remains VFR.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night...MVFR or lower in areas of fog. Mainly outside
of the NYC terminals.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...MVFR or lower conds possible with an increasing chance of
light showers.

Saturday...Mainly MVFR or lower with showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Sub SCA conds on the waters this AM with a 3-ft ESE swell on the
ocean waters. Conds should remain below SCA thresholds through
Thu with high pressure remaining in control, and continuing
ocean swell. The pressure gradient will remain relatively weak.

With increasing SE flow ahead of a cold front on Fri, ocean seas
should build to around 5 ft by Fri night. Winds and gusts
increase with an approaching cold front Sat into Sat night, and
ocean gusts may reach 25 kt behind the front Sat night. Ocean
seas will also build Saturday into Saturday night as long period
swells from distant Tropical Storm Philippe move into the
waters. Refer to the National Hurricane Center,
https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts on Philippe.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry through Thursday. Attm, no significant hydrologic impacts
are expected with rainfall Friday into Saturday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Record High Temperatures for 10/3

              Record    Fcst
Newark........85/1950....85
Bridgeport....80/2000....77
Central Park..87/1919....81
LaGuardia.....85/2000....82
JFK...........84/2002....79
Islip.........80/2002*...81

* = and previous years
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge remains out
of service for unrepresentative data. The gauge is currently
being looked into by our partners at the USGS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
CLIMATE...JT/BG
EQUIPMENT...BG