000
FXUS61 KOKX 031949
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
349 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the region through Thursday will slowly weaken
beginning Thursday night and give way to an approaching frontal
system on Friday. The associated cold front will pass through
Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure will then likely
build from the south and west Sunday into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Generally tranquil conditions are expected through the middle of the
week as a ridge of high pressure remains centered over the
Northeast. Clear skies are expected tonight and with light winds,
radiational cooling is likely once again. Lows are expected to
drop into the middle to upper 50s for the interior. Coastal and
urban areas will have lows in the low 60s. Additionally,
dewpoints in the 50s and low 60s will likely result in areas of
fog developing overnight as temperatures cool. Fog may become
locally dense. Any SPSs for dense fog will be handled as it
occurs.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure remains firmly overhead on Wednesday so another day of
dry and clear conditions are expected. Higher heights and a light
flow will allow for temperatures to once again climb into the 80s
for much of the area. While record highs are not expected to be
broken, temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above
average. Coastal areas that are typically prone to seabreeze
influence may only rise into the upper 70s.
Light winds and clear skies will once again result in a favorable
radiational cooling environment Wednesday night. Dew points
will prevent lows from dropping too much but lows in the low to
middle 50s are expected for Interior areas with lows in the
upper 50s and low 60s for coastal areas. Patchy fog is once
again expected to develop overnight. Locally dense fog will
remain possible.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Heights fall on Thursday as the upper ridge axis shifts offshore
ahead of a digging H5 trough into the Upper Midwest. Upper low in
the trough eventually closes and cuts off from the flow over the
Great Lakes this weekend, potentially meandering nearby into early
next week.
Late this week, E/SE flow strengthens as 1030 mb surface high
pressure shifts offshore south of the Canadian Maritimes.
As the upper level trough approaches, an associated surface low will
track well to our north and west. This low will drag a cold front
through the area late Saturday into Saturday night, with the
potential for a wave of low pressure to form along the front over or
near our area. The placement of this low will affect rainfall
totals, but right now the system overall continues to look
progressive. With a moist air mass in place, BUFKIT soundings
indicate PWATs increase to about 1.75 inches ahead of the cold front
on Saturday, rain chances increase Friday afternoon and become
likely late Friday night through Saturday. Locally heavy downpours
will be possible., with perhaps an embedded rumble of thunder or
two. Total rainfall looks to average around an inch regionwide.
The cold front moves through Saturday afternoon, with winds
increasing and veering westerly behind it. As the trough approaches,
TC Phillipe will be moving north through the open Atlantic. Global
guidance indicates the negatively tilted trough may bend Phillipe
back to the west, though still expected to remain west of the local
region. Lingering showers are possible for the next several days
with the upper level low, mainly north and west of NYC. Drier
weather returns by early next week with high pressure building to
the south and east.
After an initial mild start to the period, temperatures fall below
normal behind the fropa on Saturday. Highs in the 70s continue Thu
and Fri, before trending down through the weekend. Temperatures may
struggle to climb out of the 50s everywhere Sunday and Monday with
the cool upper low meandering nearby. Largely followed the National
Blend of Models for this update, with only subtle adjustment.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pres builds over the region tngt, and offshore on Wed.
Light winds today, mainly sw, although sea breeze flow expected near
the coasts. Winds become light and vrb tngt, then out of the se on
Wed.
Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. Some fog expected tngt, especially
inland arpts. Patchy fog included for TEB/HPN/SWF attm.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Variability in wind direction can be expected thru 00Z, but speeds
remain blw 10kt.
Fog is expected to only impact TEB attm. Very low chance of vis
restrictions elsewhere, although EWR would be the next most likely.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Rest of Wednesday...VFR.
Wednesday night...MVFR or lower in fog.
Thursday...VFR.
Friday...MVFR or lower possible. Rain possible by aftn.
Saturday...MVFR or lower with rain.
Sunday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub SCA conditions are expected through at least Thursday under a
weak pressure gradient with high pressure remaining in control. A
continuing ocean swell is also expected.
Conditions remain below SCA thresholds through Friday. Increasing SE
flow ahead of a cold front into the weekend should allow ocean seas
to build to around 5 ft Saturday. Wind gusts may exceed 25 kt on the
ocean on Sunday before subsiding. Non ocean waters largely remain
below SCA criteria through this time.
Ocean seas will remain elevated into early next week as long period
swells from distant Tropical Storm Philippe move into the waters.
Refer to the National Hurricane Center, https:/www.nhc.noaa.gov for
official forecasts on Philippe.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic concerns expected through at least Thursday. A
period of showers is likely late Friday through Saturday, with
around an inch of rainfall expected at this time. WPC currently
has the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall,
indicating the potential for nuisance flooding and localized
flash flooding.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.CLIMATE...
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Record High Temperatures for Tuesday 10/3
Record Fcst
Newark........85/1950....85
Bridgeport....80/2000....77
Central Park..87/1919....81
LaGuardia.....85/2000....82
JFK...........84/2002....79
Islip.........80/2002*...81
* = and previous years-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Peconic River at Riverhead NY tidal gauge remains out
of service for unrepresentative data. The gauge is currently
being looked into by our partners at the USGS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DR/MW
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...