000
FXUS61 KOKX 062038
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
438 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches tonight as the remnant low of Philippe
moves north, well east of the Delmarva coast. The cold front will
move across the area Saturday into Saturday evening as the
remnant low of Philippe reaches to off the New England coast and
then near the Maine coast by Sunday morning. Low pressure
remains north of the area into the beginning of next week, with
frontal systems impacting the area around the middle and end of
the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Flood Watch in effect from late tonight through Saturday evening
for northeastern New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley, New York
City, and Fairfield and Nassau counties.
A longwave upper trough will be approaching tonight, and then
moves into the northeast and mid Atlantic Saturday as the
trough begins to interact with the remnant of Philippe. At the
surface a cold front approaches tonight and moves through
Saturday into Saturday evening, as the remnant low tracks well
to the east. The frontal system will interact with tropical
moisture from the remnant low late tonight into Saturday, and
with increased lift, a weak low level jet, and precipitable
water values around 1.5 inches, and warm cloud processes,
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. Hi res
models have come into better agreement with the potential of a
narrow band of heavy rainfall, and increased rainfall amounts.
With higher confidence of this occurring has issued a Flood
Watch as urban and poor drainage areas could see flash flooding.
Also small and fast responding streams across northeastern New
Jersey could flood as antecedent conditions remain wet from
recent rainfall.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper trough closes off and becomes negative Saturday
evening as the remnant low merges with the frontal system.
Precipitation will end Saturday night as the cold front tracks
east and north of the area. Colder air moves in with
temperatures returning to seasonal to slightly below for
Saturday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Low pres will retrograde into wrn Quebec on Sun, dropping into
the 970s by 00Z Mon. Despite the distance from the center of the
sys, it will be breezy across the area due to the depth the
low. Deep mixing will allow for temps to reach around 60,
despite h85 temps falling to around 1C. Steep lapse rates during
the day, so have added isold sprinkles to the fcst. Bkn flat cu
around 3000 ft possible as well.
Less wind on Mon as the low over Canada weakens and another sys
approaches from the west. Flow aloft backs to the sw, but sfc temps
remain blw normal with less mixing across the interior. Dry wx
expected with lapse rates not as steep.
A weak front comes thru late Tue into Wed with a few shwrs possible.
Little change in airmass expected with temps remaining a little blw
normal. Not much moisture to work with so any pcpn should be mainly
light.
Humidity increases Thu and Fri ahead of a strong cold front. Chances
for rainfall increase thru the period, although the heaviest pcpn
may hold off until Fri ngt or later. Temps warming back to around
normal with smaller diurnal swings.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A frontal system approaches from the west tonight and moves
through Saturday.
Low confidence forecast as vsby and cigs vary from IFR (metro
terminals) to VFR (KGON) across the area. Therefore, metro
terminals are most likely to remain IFR to MVFR through the rest
of the afternoon, with some brief improvement possible before
IFR conditions return tonight. Brief LIFR or MVFR conditions are
possible at these locations. Better conditions expected for
eastern terminals through the day, but these areas area also
expected to deteriorate overnight, just how much is the
question.
Scattered showers are moving through the metro terminals, with
gradually increasing coverage through the night. A period of
heavy rain is expected late tonight into late Saturday
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible during this
time frame, but coverage was not high enough to put in the TAFs.
ESE-E winds around 10 kt today and into tonight. Wind shift to
SW then W and quickly to NW expected Saturday toward 18Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely due to changing flight categories.
Potential for heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms late tonight
into late Saturday morning could have impacts to the morning push.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: MVFR or lower in rain showers. Wind shift to the
W then NW with gusts to 15 to 20 kt possible with frontal passage.
Sunday: VFR. W winds 15-20kt G25-30kt.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. SW G15-20kt
Tuesday...Manly VFR. Chance of showers. S-SW G15-20kt.
Wednesday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A SCA remains on the ocean waters tonight through at least
Saturday night as increasing swell from the remnant low of
Philippe move into the ocean waters. Behind a cold front
Saturday night northwest winds and gusts will be increasing,
with gusts reaching SCA levels across all the forecast waters
Saturday evening, and a SCA has been issued.
West winds will produce sca conditions on all waters Sun. Winds
will decrease Sun ngt, but seas on the ocean will remain aoa 5
ft. Seas on the ocean are progged to be in the 3-5 ft range Mon-
Tue, then less on Wed. Seas then build again on Thu ahead of a
strong frontal sys. Otherwise, winds are progged to remain blw
sca lvls Mon-Thu attm.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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The potential for a narrow band of heavy rainfall has
increased, however, there is uncertainty as to where this may
occur.
A basin wide average of 1.5 to 2.0 inches, with locally as much
as 2 to 3 inches, of rainfall is expected across much of
northeastern New Jersey into the lower Hudson, New York City,
Nassau county New York, and Fairfield county Connecticut,
tonight through Saturday evening, and a Flood Watch has been
posted for these areas with the potential for isolated to
scattered flash flooding. There is uncertainty as to where a
band of heavier rainfall will set up, with the possibility of
being from northeastern New Jersey into Nassau and Fairfield
counties. In locations outside of the Flood Watch 0.5 to around
1.0 inches of rainfall will be possible tonight through
Saturday evening.
No hydrologic impacts expected Sun-Fri.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Long period SE swells from the remnant low of Phillipe will
build to 5 to 7 ft tonight into Saturday and to 6 to 9 ft
Saturday night, and , presenting the likelihood of additional
beach erosion/escarpment from an east to west sweep of 5 to 7 ft
breaking surf. Because water levels are not astronomically
high, the dune erosion threat during times of high tide is
isolated. Swells subside Sunday into Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening
for CTZ005-009.
NY...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening
for NYZ067>075-176>179.
NJ...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening
for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...