000
FXUS61 KOKX 071827
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
227 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move across the area this afternoon and into
this evening. Low pressure remains north of the area into the
beginning of next week, with frontal systems impacting the area
around the middle and end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Flood Watch has been cancelled as widespread heavy rain never
materialized across the area. While the ingredients were in
place, the activity remained unorganized with only pockets of
moderate to heavy rain. The latter of which only impacted areas
for a short enough time to limit the flooding to minor. There
are some flood advisories that remain up across NE NJ, the Lower
Hudson Valley, and western LI. The chance for minor nuisance
flooding will continue for eastern area the next couple of
hours.
With the best dynamics lifting north of the area, the showers
will likely weaken in intensity as will the post-frontal band
across eastern PA. That being said, showers will linger into
early this evening, especially across southern CT and LI.
The cold front will clear eastern LI/SE CT this evening. Brief
post-frontal gusts up to 30 kt are possible right behind the
cold front before dropping off to around 20 kt.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper trough pushes the front through the area tonight and
closes off and becomes negatively tilted this evening as the
remnant low of Philippe merges with the frontal system.
Colder air moves in with temperatures returning to seasonal to
slightly below for tonight. Lows will be in the 40s for much of
the area.
Fairly dry conditions are then expected Sunday through Monday as
the area remains in the base of a large trough and the
associated cut-off low positioned well to the north. This will
allow for breezy NW winds continuing through the timeframe with
gusts upwards of 25-30 mph on Sunday and gradually diminishing
into Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the upper 50s to
low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak front comes thru late Tue into Wed with a few shwrs possible.
Little change in airmass expected with temps remaining a little blw
normal. Not much moisture to work with so any pcpn should be mainly
light.
Humidity increases Thu and Fri ahead of a strong cold front. Chances
for rainfall increase thru the period, although the heaviest pcpn
may hold off until Fri ngt or later. Temps warming back to around
normal with smaller diurnal swings.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front is moving through the city west to east and
bringing showers along with it. It will pass further east into
the early evening. Low pressure will then meander over New
England and southeast Canada into early next week.
IFR with some areas of LIFR from showers. Showers will continue
to remain more concentrated along the front, but likely focused
over Long Island and Southern Connecticut late afternoon and
evening. Post-frontal showers are possible into the evening. A
few isolated thunderstorms have occurred, but confidence not
high enough to include in TAFs.
Improvement to MVFR is expected later this afternoon for NYC
terminals, but IFR may continue into the evening further east.
VFR returns this evening from west to east.
E-ESE winds 5-10kt will shift to the NW behind the passage of a cold
front, which is already occurring at city terminals. Gusts
20-25 kt should become frequent behind the front and continue
into the evening. Winds and gusts may weaken a bit late tonight
into early Sunday morning before increasing after day break.
VFR and westerly winds are expected Sunday with gusts at or
below 20kt for most terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely due to changing flight categories.
Timing of improvement to VFR may be off by 1-3 hours.
Timing of cold front passage/NW wind shift may be off by 1-2
hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday: VFR. W winds 15-20G25kt.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers at night. SW G15-20kt
Tuesday...Manly VFR. Chance of showers. S-SW G15-20kt.
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA remains on the ocean waters through at least Sunday night
as increasing swell from the remnant low of Philippe tracking
well east of the area. Behind a cold front tonight northwest
winds and gusts will be increasing, with gusts reaching SCA
levels across all the forecast waters by this evening.
West winds will produce SCA conditions on all waters Sun. Winds
will decrease Sun night, but seas on the ocean will remain at
or above 5 ft. Seas on the ocean are progged to be in the 3-5 ft
range Mon-Tue, then less on Wed. Seas then build again on Thu
ahead of a strong frontal sys. Otherwise, winds are progged to
remain blw SCA lvls Mon-Thu attm.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Localized rainfall amounts up to an inch/hr are still possible
across SW CT, wester LI, and eastern portions of Westchester
this afternoon. Flood Advisories are possible. Elsewhere, an
additional 0.25-0.50" is possible.
No hydrologic impacts expected Sun-Fri.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Long period SE swells from the remnant low of Phillipe will
build to 5 to 7 ft today and to 6 to 9 ft tonight, presenting
the likelihood of additional beach erosion/escarpment from an
east to west sweep of 5 to 7 ft breaking surf. Because water
levels are not astronomically high, the dune erosion threat
during times of high tide is isolated. Swells subside Sunday
into Sunday night.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday
for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
UPDATE...DW
AVIATION...BR