000
FXUS61 KOKX 072153
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
553 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will pass to the east this evening. Low pressure
will deepen across eastern Canada tonight into Sunday, then
remaining nearly stationary and weakening through mid week. A
frontal system may impact the area at the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor updates for current conditions and weather.
Jet dynamics associated with a negatively tilted upper trough
have lifted north, sending cold front across the area late this
afternoon into early this evening. The area of showers along and
ahead of the front continues diminish in intensity and is no
longer a flood threat. The brunt of the rain early this evening
will be across eastern LI/southern CT before the front exits to
the east. Any post-frontal showers look to be scattered
elsewhere.
A gusty W/NW flow immediately behind the front will produce
gusts up to 30 kt for an hour or two, before diminishing to 15
to 20 kt. It will also turn much cooler through the night with
lows generally in the 40s to around 50. This will be about 10-15
degrees cooler than last night. It will also clear from west to
east this evening into the early morning hours.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The closed upper low will lift up into eastern Canada Sunday
with deepening surface low pressure becoming occluded. This low
will then become stationary and weaken through the first half
of the upcoming week. This will result in a brisk W flow and
below normal temperatures. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, with lows Sunday night in the 40s in
outlying areas to around 50 across the NYC metro.
In addition, with cyclonic flow there should be instability cu
each afternoon. Have even included a slight chance of showers
Sunday afternoon across Orange County NY. The HRRR has bit more
coverage to the east of this area, but confidence is too low at
this time to add elsewhere. In addition, shortwave energy
rounding the base of the upper low could produce a few showers
Sunday night. For the time, have kept these east of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper low over eastern Canada gradually fills and weakens
through the end of the week. This will allow for a slow warmup
with a low chance of showers Monday night into Tuesday as
additional shortwave energy rounds the base of the upper low.
Warmer and more humid conditions develop late in the week with
an approaching frontal system. Rain chances increase during
this time. The heaviest rain at this time looks to hold off
until late Friday or Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front has moved east of most of the terminals with the
exception of KGON going into early this evening. By mid to late
evening, the cold front is expected to be east of KGON.
Low pressure will then meander over New England and southeast
Canada into early next week.
Post frontal rain showers intermittent for some terminals
continues until early this evening. KGON will be getting rain
showers with the front and behind the front going into this
evening.
VFR conditions expected for NYC terminals with MVFR to IFR
conditions elsewhere. Improvements to VFR expected this evening
for all forecast terminals except for KGON which MVFR is
forecast to linger until improvement to VFR late evening.
Winds at city terminals are now NW at 10-15 kts with frequent
gusts 20-25 kts. Winds and gusts may weaken a bit late tonight
into early Sunday morning before increasing after day break.
VFR and westerly winds are expected Sunday with gusts at or below
20 kts for most terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible due to potentially changing flight
categories. MVFR possible going into early evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late Sunday Afternoon: VFR. W winds around 15G20-25kt.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers at night. SW G15-20kt
Tuesday...Manly VFR. Low chance of showers. S-SW G15-20kt.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty W winds will bring SCA to all waters this evening and
through the day on Sunday. For the ocean, seas will likely
remain above 5 ft Sunday night with gradually diminishing winds.
Seas on the ocean are progged to be in the 3-5 ft range Mon-
Tue, then less on Wed. Seas then build again on Thu ahead of a
strong frontal sys. Otherwise, winds are progged to remain blw
SCA lvls Mon-Thu attm.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected Sun-Fri.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Long period SE swells from the remnant low of Phillipe will
build to 6 to 9 ft tonight, presenting the likelihood of
additional beach erosion/escarpment from an east to west sweep
of 5 to 7 ft breaking surf. Because water levels are not
astronomically high, the dune erosion threat during times of
high tide is isolated. Swells subside Sunday into Sunday night.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-340-
345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC/DW
AVIATION...JM/BR
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...