000
FXUS61 KOKX 080032
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
832 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass to the east this evening. Low pressure
will deepen across eastern Canada tonight into Sunday, then
remaining nearly stationary and weakening through mid week. A
frontal system may impact the area at the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Only minor updates for current conditions and weather.
Jet dynamics associated with a negatively tilted upper trough
have lifted north, sending cold front across the area late this
afternoon into early this evening. The area of showers along and
ahead of the front continues diminish in intensity and is no
longer a flood threat. The brunt of the rain early this evening
will be across eastern LI/southern CT before the front exits to
the east. Any post-frontal showers look to be scattered
elsewhere.
A gusty W/NW flow immediately behind the front will produce
gusts up to 30 kt for an hour or two, before diminishing to 15
to 20 kt. It will also turn much cooler through the night with
lows generally in the 40s to around 50. This will be about 10-15
degrees cooler than last night. It will also clear from west to
east this evening into the early morning hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The closed upper low will lift up into eastern Canada Sunday
with deepening surface low pressure becoming occluded. This low
will then become stationary and weaken through the first half
of the upcoming week. This will result in a brisk W flow and
below normal temperatures. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, with lows Sunday night in the 40s in
outlying areas to around 50 across the NYC metro.
In addition, with cyclonic flow there should be instability cu
each afternoon. Have even included a slight chance of showers
Sunday afternoon across Orange County NY. The HRRR has bit more
coverage to the east of this area, but confidence is too low at
this time to add elsewhere. In addition, shortwave energy
rounding the base of the upper low could produce a few showers
Sunday night. For the time, have kept these east of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper low over eastern Canada gradually fills and weakens
through the end of the week. This will allow for a slow warmup
with a low chance of showers Monday night into Tuesday as
additional shortwave energy rounds the base of the upper low.
Warmer and more humid conditions develop late in the week with
an approaching frontal system. Rain chances increase during
this time. The heaviest rain at this time looks to hold off
until late Friday or Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will continue to move east of the region this evening.
Low pressure retrogrades from Northern New England to Southeast
Canada late tonight into Sunday.
Leftover light rain showers remain east of NYC terminals this
evening along with MVFR to locally IFR ceilings. West of the rain
showers, there is also some localized MVFR ceilings. KGON will have
MVFR visibilities with showers this evening. Otherwise, visibilities
will be VFR.
VFR overall conditions and mainly dry conditions expected
overnight through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be NW
tonight near 10-13 kts with gusts at times to around 20 kt.
Winds Sunday will be more W without much change in speed but
with some peak gusts for some terminals closer to 25 kt during
late morning into the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts could be more intermittent during the TAF period.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Night: VFR. W wind gusts around 20 kt initially. Gusts
diminish early evening outside of NYC terminals and by late evening
into overnight for NYC terminals.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers at night. SW G15-20kt
Tuesday...Manly VFR. Low chance of showers. S-SW G15-20kt.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty W winds will bring SCA to all waters this evening and
through the day on Sunday. For the ocean, seas will likely
remain above 5 ft Sunday night with gradually diminishing winds.
Seas on the ocean are progged to be in the 3-5 ft range Mon-
Tue, then less on Wed. Seas then build again on Thu ahead of a
strong frontal sys. Otherwise, winds are progged to remain blw
SCA lvls Mon-Thu attm.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected Sun-Fri.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Long period SE swells from the remnant low of Phillipe will
build to 6 to 9 ft tonight, presenting the likelihood of
additional beach erosion/escarpment from an east to west sweep
of 5 to 7 ft breaking surf. Because water levels are not
astronomically high, the dune erosion threat during times of
high tide is isolated. Swells subside Sunday into Sunday night.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...