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FXUS61 KOKX 081944
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure deepens and occludes to the north of the area in eastern Canada and then gradually weakens through the middle of the week. High pressure across the region Wednesday weakens into Wednesday night. A warm front slowly approaches from the south Thursday and Friday. Low pressure impacts the area next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Cloud cover is scattered to broken across western and central portions of the CWA from overspreading cumulus and stratocumulus enhanced by and along a surface trough that extends down from a stacked occluded low in Canada to our north. This cloud cover has helped keep Central Park below 60 today. This is the first time Central Park has failed to reach 60 degrees since May 4th. Cloud will persist into the evening, eventually clearing late overnight as the surface trough clears the area. Showers so far have not developed in the area, but a small chance for isolated showers remains this evening for northern portions of the area. An additional area of isolated showers is possible over the eastern end of Long Island and SE Connecticut as the surface trough moves east, developing a line of showers along with it over the ocean. The best timing for this is this evening and early tonight, though chances and confidence in either areas of isolated showers remains low as model soundings show a layer of drier air between the surface and 900 to 850mb. Observed dewpoints have also been running a little drier than forecasted in some areas. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken through the evening and tonight leading to decreasing winds as the low in Canada retrogrades from Quebec to Ontario and weakens. SW to WSW winds will continue at 10-15 mph for the first few hours this evening becoming 5-10 mph overnight. With winds weakening and cloud cover expecting the mostly clear late tonight, there remains a few hours before sunrise where temperatures could further cool. Overnight lows are forecasted to be in the mid- 40s to low-50s for coastal areas while interior areas should drop into the low-40s to upper-30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A stacked occluded low to our north with a large trough will remain influencing our weather Monday and Tuesday. We`ll see dry conditions for the start of Monday as we sit at the base of the trough with W/SW flow. Temperatures will once again be below average with highs maxing out around 60. As pieces of energy rotate around the base of the trough and the cut off low with minor warm air advection at 850mb, some additional cloud cover with possible shower development will become possible Monday night and into Tuesday. Capped precipitation at a low- end chance as there is uncertainty in the development of any showers late Monday night and through the day Tuesday. Some 12Z CAMs show almost no showers developing while others show spotty coverage, with the best chances across E LI and SE CT. Either way, PWATs will likely only top off around 0.8" based on the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM. This could hint that any showers that do develop will not have enough moisture to cause any significant rainfall, likely remaining only light in nature. Otherwise, Tuesday is expected to be closer to average with highs in the low/mid-60s. Shower chances diminish by Tuesday night as the piece of energy moves to the northeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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An upper level closed low meanders across southeastern Canada Tuesday night through Wednesday night, while slowly weakening. The low shifts eastward in response to a longwave trough that moves onshore of the Pacific northwest during Tuesday and moves into the western states through Wednesday night. A low closes off in this western trough and becomes slightly negative Thursday, and then tracks east into next weekend. The near zonal flow will keep a developing surface warm front associated with the western trough and surface low to the south of the region, and may even become nearly stationary south of the region Thursday into Friday as the low remains well to the west, and the southeastern Canada low remains in place. There is also some uncertainty as to the strength of ridging that amplifies into the region between the two lows late Thursday into Friday. This ridge may also keep the front well to the south and slow the eastward progression of the low. While there are minimaL chances to slight chances of precipitation with weak warm advection Thursday and Friday confidence in anything occurring is low as better forcing remains to the south and moisture is limited. Better agreement comes with the upper trough/closed low and surface low impacting the region for next weekend. with the slow movement of the systems a prolonged period of precipitation is looking more likely. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal normal Tuesday night through Thursday night, and then likely below normal for next weekend with limited heating with extensive cloud cover and precipitation.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure over eastern Canada will become nearly stationary to start the week, gradually weakening with time. VFR. SCT-BKN040-060 each afternoon/early evening. A brief isolated shower is possible at KSWF through early this evening, and at KGON the first half of tonight. WSW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt will diminish this evening with sustained speeds falling below 10 kt overnight. Winds back to the SW on Monday at around 10kt with G17-20kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-3 hours. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers at night. SW winds G15- 20kt possible in the afternoon. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers in the morning. Wednesday...VFR. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE...
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Gusty winds will diminish this evening across the LI Sound and the bays becoming Sub-SCA late this evening. Winds remain gusty around 25 kt through this evening over ocean water, subsiding overnight with waves 7-8 ft this evening over ocean waters, dropping slowly to below 5 ft after late Monday night.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through Friday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BR/MET NEAR TERM...BR SHORT TERM...BR LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...DW MARINE...BR/MET HYDROLOGY...BR/MET