000
FXUS61 KOKX 081944
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure deepens and occludes to the north of the area in
eastern Canada and then gradually weakens through the middle of the
week. High pressure across the region Wednesday weakens into Wednesday
night. A warm front slowly approaches from the south Thursday and
Friday. Low pressure impacts the area next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Cloud cover is scattered to broken across western and central
portions of the CWA from overspreading cumulus and stratocumulus
enhanced by and along a surface trough that extends down from a
stacked occluded low in Canada to our north. This cloud cover has
helped keep Central Park below 60 today. This is the first time
Central Park has failed to reach 60 degrees since May 4th.
Cloud will persist into the evening, eventually clearing late
overnight as the surface trough clears the area.
Showers so far have not developed in the area, but a small chance
for isolated showers remains this evening for northern portions of
the area. An additional area of isolated showers is possible over
the eastern end of Long Island and SE Connecticut as the surface
trough moves east, developing a line of showers along with it over
the ocean. The best timing for this is this evening and early
tonight, though chances and confidence in either areas of isolated
showers remains low as model soundings show a layer of drier air
between the surface and 900 to 850mb. Observed dewpoints have
also been running a little drier than forecasted in some areas.
The pressure gradient will gradually weaken through the evening and
tonight leading to decreasing winds as the low in Canada retrogrades
from Quebec to Ontario and weakens. SW to WSW winds will
continue at 10-15 mph for the first few hours this evening
becoming 5-10 mph overnight.
With winds weakening and cloud cover expecting the mostly clear late
tonight, there remains a few hours before sunrise where temperatures
could further cool. Overnight lows are forecasted to be in the mid-
40s to low-50s for coastal areas while interior areas should drop
into the low-40s to upper-30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A stacked occluded low to our north with a large trough will remain
influencing our weather Monday and Tuesday. We`ll see dry conditions
for the start of Monday as we sit at the base of the trough with
W/SW flow. Temperatures will once again be below average with highs
maxing out around 60.
As pieces of energy rotate around the base of the trough and the cut
off low with minor warm air advection at 850mb, some additional
cloud cover with possible shower development will become possible
Monday night and into Tuesday. Capped precipitation at a low-
end chance as there is uncertainty in the development of any
showers late Monday night and through the day Tuesday. Some 12Z
CAMs show almost no showers developing while others show spotty
coverage, with the best chances across E LI and SE CT. Either
way, PWATs will likely only top off around 0.8" based on the 12Z
GFS and 12Z NAM. This could hint that any showers that do
develop will not have enough moisture to cause any significant
rainfall, likely remaining only light in nature.
Otherwise, Tuesday is expected to be closer to average with highs in
the low/mid-60s. Shower chances diminish by Tuesday night as the
piece of energy moves to the northeast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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An upper level closed low meanders across southeastern Canada
Tuesday night through Wednesday night, while slowly weakening.
The low shifts eastward in response to a longwave trough that moves
onshore of the Pacific northwest during Tuesday and moves into the
western states through Wednesday night. A low closes off in this
western trough and becomes slightly negative Thursday, and then
tracks east into next weekend. The near zonal flow will keep a
developing surface warm front associated with the western trough and
surface low to the south of the region, and may even become nearly
stationary south of the region Thursday into Friday as the low
remains well to the west, and the southeastern Canada low remains in
place. There is also some uncertainty as to the strength of ridging
that amplifies into the region between the two lows late Thursday
into Friday. This ridge may also keep the front well to the south
and slow the eastward progression of the low. While there are
minimaL chances to slight chances of precipitation with weak warm
advection Thursday and Friday confidence in anything occurring is
low as better forcing remains to the south and moisture is limited.
Better agreement comes with the upper trough/closed low and surface
low impacting the region for next weekend. with the slow movement of
the systems a prolonged period of precipitation is looking more
likely.
Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal normal Tuesday night
through Thursday night, and then likely below normal for next
weekend with limited heating with extensive cloud cover and
precipitation.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure over eastern Canada will become nearly stationary
to start the week, gradually weakening with time.
VFR. SCT-BKN040-060 each afternoon/early evening. A brief
isolated shower is possible at KSWF through early this evening,
and at KGON the first half of tonight.
WSW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt will diminish this
evening with sustained speeds falling below 10 kt overnight.
Winds back to the SW on Monday at around 10kt with G17-20kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-3 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers at night. SW winds G15-
20kt possible in the afternoon.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Gusty winds will diminish this evening across the LI Sound and the
bays becoming Sub-SCA late this evening. Winds remain gusty around
25 kt through this evening over ocean water, subsiding
overnight with waves 7-8 ft this evening over ocean waters,
dropping slowly to below 5 ft after late Monday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Friday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET