discussion on 2023-10-09

000
FXUS61 KOKX 091814
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
214 PM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure meanders over southeast Canada as it gradually
weakens through the middle of the week. High pressure will then
remain across the region Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure
and its associated frontal system impact the area this weekend.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Forecast essentially on track.

Fairly persistent conditions will remain this afternoon being to
the south and east of a large cut off low meandering over
southeast Canada. More clouds are pivoting in towards the west
based on latest sat trends as more cloud cover remains upstream
and stratcu developing with the daytime heating. The afternoon
is expected to be dry and partly cloudy overall with a brisk SW
wind 10 to 15 mph with gusts to about 20 mph. Highs will be
below average once again, by about 6 to 9 degrees in most places
with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As pieces of energy rotate around the base of the trough and
the cut off low with minor warm air advection at 850mb, some
additional cloud cover with possible shower development will
become possible by tonight and into Tuesday. Capped
precipitation at a low-end chance as there is uncertainty in the
development of any showers late tonight and through the day
Tuesday. Some 00Z CAMs continue to show almost no showers
developing while others show spotty coverage, with the best
chances across E LI and SE CT. Either way, PWATs will likely
only top off around 0.8". This could hint that any showers that
do develop will not have enough moisture to cause any
significant rainfall, likely remaining only light in nature.

Otherwise, Tuesday is expected to be closer to average with
highs in the low/mid-60s. Shower chances diminish by Tuesday
night as the piece of energy moves to the northeast.

Weak high pressure then builds into the area Tuesday night
through the end of the week. This will allow for a continuing
dry forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Lows Tuesday and
Wednesday night will be in the low to middle 40s for interior
locations and upper 40s to near 50 for the coast. Highs
Wednesday will be closer to average with temperatures climbing
into the middle to possibly upper 60s.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There has not been too much change to the forecast for the end of
the week into the upcoming weekend. The main focus revolves around
another upper level closed low and associated frontal system/surface
low for the weekend.

The upper level closed low that remains over southeast Canada and
New England through the middle of the week will begin to move to the
Maritimes Thursday into Friday. Some weak middle level energy may
trail the departure of the low with potential jet lift passing over
the region late Thursday into Thursday night. There is not much
moisture to work with, but have left in the minimal PoPs for some
light rain during this time period. The energy and jet lift push off
to the east Friday morning with ridging building aloft. High
pressure will otherwise remain over the area Thursday and Friday.
The subsidence from the ridging and high pressure over the region
will yield a dry day on Friday and have removed any PoPs during the
day time hours.

Confidence in unsettled weather for the upcoming weekend continues
to increase, but specific details on exact timing of the rain and
evolution of the system remain of lower confidence. A potent closed
upper level low over the Northern Plains is progged to push eastward
Friday night into Saturday. The primary surface low associated with
the system is likely to approach the ridging over or near the New
England coast with a deepening secondary low nearby at some point on
later Saturday or Sunday. The system could be a bit slower given a
complex interaction with the initial upper low over the Maritimes
and North Atlantic. The possibility exists for the rain to hold off
until late Saturday or Saturday night/Sunday. This is shown within
the spread of the recent ensembles. Given the spread and
uncertainty, do not want to make significant changes to the previous
forecast. Will continue with the likely PoPs on Saturday/Saturday
night and have PoPs at chance on Sunday. At the present time, the
event appears to be a longer duration widespread rainfall with
potential for 1-2 inches of rain. The latest NBM probabilities for
greater than 1 inch in any 6 hour period this weekend are low and
generally less than 10 percent.

Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be close to normal in the
lower to middle 60s. Cooler temperatures are expected for the
weekend with clouds and rainfall, generally in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A large area of low pressure centered north of the Great Lakes
will gradually weaken through the week. At the same time, weak
high pressure will be centered across the central Appalachians.

VFR. Low chance of MVFR in any showers overnight.

SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt this afternoon will
quickly diminish early this evening falling to less than 10 kt
tonight. SW winds will increase to around 10 kt by Tuesday
afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts this afternoon may end up being occasional.

There is a low chance of a showers overnight, mainly after 03Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon-Wednesday: VFR. A few SW wind gusts 15-17kt
possible.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain at night.

Friday...VFR during the day. Chance for rain and MVFR at night.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain. E wind G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Non-ocean marine zones are below SCA thresholds along with the
western ocean now, and are expected to remain below SCA through
Tuesday.

The SCA remains on the eastern 2/3rds ocean waters into as good
portion of tonight with seas forecast to remain at 5 feet.
Seas drop below 5 feet late tonight for all waters with sub-
SCA conditions for all of the waters through at least Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through Friday.

There is the potential for a longer duration 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall during the upcoming weekend.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...JE/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW