000
FXUS61 KOKX 101644
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1244 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to meander across southeastern
Canada as it gradually weakens through midweek. Weak high
pressure then settles over the region through Thursday.
Another high pressure builds in on Friday, , followed by
low pressure passing to our south this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Need to add the mention of an isolated shower this afternoon
with the passage of midlevel shortwave. Latest radar imagery
shows a few popping up across the Lower Hudson Valley and SE
CT. Expect one could pop up almost anywhere the next couple of
hours. In addition, some patches of mid level level clouds will
move through the area this afternoon with some stratocu
development as well due to the daytime heating and cyclonic
flow.
Otherwise, a large upper level closed low will continue to
meander over southeastern Canada through the middle of the week.
Several shortwaves will rotate around the base of the upper low
and move across the region through tonight.
Another shortwave approaches in the evening and will move
across the region tonight. Some of the guidance has been hinting
as isolated showers during this time frame, but the forcing
remains very weak and forecast soundings are dry, especially in
the subcloud layer. It would not be surprising to see an
isolated sprinkle, but not enough confidence in measurable rain
to warrant a low PoP. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are
otherwise forecast tonight.
Forecast soundings are once again showing decent mixing this
afternoon allowing for a few wind gusts around 20 mph in the
afternoon. Highs today will be close to seasonable averages
in the lower to middle 60s. Temperatures tonight are tricky due
to some cloud cover. There should be enough breaks to allow
temperatures to drop off overnight with lows in the 40s inland
and eastern Long Island with lower 50s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The closed upper low will continue meandering over southeast
Canada on Wednesday before shifting towards northern New
England and the Maritimes Thursday into Thursday night. There
does not appear to be any discernible shortwaves during this
period and a weak surface high will likely move into the area
from the south and west. Dry conditions are forecast for
Wednesday through Thursday.
Models have slowly been backing off on shortwave and jet
energy passing over the area Thursday night. Confluent flow
over New England likely intensifies a jet streak providing some
lift aloft. This will bring an increase in clouds Thursday
night, but forecast soundings show fairly significant dry air in
the subcloud layer. Have elected to remove the low PoPs
Thursday night and go with a dry forecast.
High temperatures trend slightly above normal Wednesday and
Thursday with highs in the middle and upper 60s. A few of the
usual warmer spots in NE NJ could touch 70 degrees, especially
on Thursday. Nighttime temperatures look to fall into the 40s
inland and upper 40s to lower 50s closer to the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging aloft will promote high pressure building in at the
surface on Friday. Some mid-level moisture spilling over the
ridge and approaching us, but still thinking that this won`t be
enough for any showers. Highs slightly below normal.
The ridge aloft flattens as its axis shifts through the region
on Saturday. This will be followed by a longwave trough and
potential closed 500mb low shifting through on Sunday. This will
help energize a surface low that`s progged to emerge off the
Mid-Atlantic coast and pass to our south sometime Saturday night
into Sunday. Rain becomes likely across the region on Saturday
and remains likely into at least Sunday morning. Timing is still
somewhat uncertain, but it appears so far that the overall
highest chances of rain would be Saturday night. See the
hydrology section below for more details and potential impacts.
The pressure gradient tightens with the surface low passing to
the south, so Saturday night and Sunday could be quite breezy,
particularly over coastal sections. Cyclonic flow remains aloft
on Monday, sustaining a chance of showers. High temperatures
this weekend and Monday below normal due to rain and significant
cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will continue to meander across southeastern
Canada as it gradually weakens through midweek.
VFR. Light WSW to variable winds through the morning push, then
mainly SW winds around 10kt with gusts 15-19kt.
A brief pop-up shower cannot be ruled out over the next couple
of hours.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts might be only occasional, or may not occur at all. Chance
of a sea breeze turning winds south at JFK after 19z-20z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Night-Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: VFR.
Friday...VFR during the day. Increasing chances for rain and
MVFR or lower at night.
Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain. ENE wind G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will remain below SCA levels through tonight, but
some gusts to around 20 kt are possible this afternoon. A
relatively weak pressure gradient over the waters Wednesday
through Thursday night will lead to winds remaining below SCA
levels. Ocean seas will continue subsiding today settling to
around 3 ft by Wednesday, then 2-3 ft into Thursday.
Sub-SCA conditions continue into Friday with an offshore flow. Low
pressure then approaches the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday with
winds veering ENE and increasing through the day and night. This
will help push wave heights above 5 feet over the ocean Saturday
night, with wind gusts around 25-30 kts across all waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Friday.
Low pressure this weekend may bring 1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain
with locally higher totals possible. Since this would occur
over a relatively long duration of time, the overall chances of
flash flooding do not look high. There is still some uncertainty
regarding potential rain amounts which leaves the possibility
of flash flooding open, but impacts would more likely be
minor/poor drainage flooding as well as some of the quicker
responding rivers and streams.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DW