000
FXUS61 KOKX 131136
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
736 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control today. Low pressure emerging
off the Mid-Atlantic coast will pass to our south Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Another area of low pressure develops offshore
early next week, tracking northeast of the region Tuesday. High
pressure then builds in from the west mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The forecast is mainly on track. Adjusted hourly temps and
dewpoints slightly based on the latest trends.
An upper ridge to our west flattens out through the period as an
upper low over the Middle MS Valley tracks eastward into the ridge.
Weak high pressure remains at the surface into late at night.
Overrunning moisture will bring lowering and thickening clouds
tonight after a mostly sunny day, but low levels are probably still
too dry through sunrise for any rainfall to materialize here.
High temperatures will be cooler than the past few days, but fairly
close to normal in the lower and middle 60s. For lows, used the NBM
50th percentile which better represents a longer period of
radiational cooling ahead of increasing clouds for the typically
favored spots over eastern portions of the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure shifting through Indiana and Ohio transfers energy to a
new low center off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday, which then
passes to our south Saturday night into Sunday morning. The storm
then shifts NE thereafter as it strengthens. We should be spared of
the heaviest rainfall as the storm center should track fairly well
SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. Enhancement of rainfall may still
however occur due to frontogenetic forcing nearby and perhaps some
upper jet streak lift. Still, rain amounts are expected to fall
short of flash flood guidance. See the hydrology section below for
more details. Rain chances will be generally higher during the
afternoon and nighttime, and higher over the southern half of the
forecast area.
Rain chances end Sunday morning, and the entire day can potentially
be dry for most of the area. A northerly flow through the mid levels
will help reduce moisture. However, some low-mid level moisture will
remain and with a cyclonic flow aloft, there may still be a decent
amount of cumulus buildup in the afternoon. The pressure gradient
will produce a somewhat breezy day, and high temperatures end up
averaging only around 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period starts off a bit unsettled early next week as
one area of low pressure departs and another develops offshore,
deepening as it pulls away to the north and east Monday into
Tuesday. Meanwhile, the H5 trough axis over the Eastern US remains
just west of the local region as global ensembles retrograde the
upper low over New England farther south and west. Troughing lifts
out by midweek as surface high pressure centered over the Central US
gradually translates east.
The tightened pressure gradient from the deepening low early week
will allow for a bit of an elevated NE flow. Gusts could
occasionally top 20 or 25 mph, particularly Tuesday afternoon. While
not a washout, rain chances linger both Monday and Tuesday with the
upper low overhead and elongated surface low pressure just offshore.
Conditions should largely dry by Wednesday as high pressure begins
to take over and westerly flow becomes established. Temperatures
average below normal to start, with highs in the 50s and lower 60s
Mon and Tue, before returning close to normal by the middle of the
week. With only subtle adjustments, followed the national blend of
models for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure builds into the region, becoming MVFR on
Saturday with showers.
NNW winds increase to near 10 kt this morning, continuing
through the day. Direction could back more to the NW during the
afternoon. Speeds then start to diminish to under 10 kt toward
sunset. Cigs lower overnight into Sat AM with showers developing
from west to east, mainly after 12Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of MVFR cigs/vsbys may be off by a couple of hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday and Sunday: Rain with MVFR/IFR cond. NE winds 15-20G20-25
kt, becoming N on Sunday.
Monday: Chance of rain showers with MVFR possible.
Tuesday: Chance of rain. MVFR/IFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With high pressure in control through tonight, winds and seas will
remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters. Winds and
seas then increase Saturday into Sunday as a storm takes shape and
passes to the south of the waters Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Winds and seas increase to SCA thresholds late Saturday
night on the ocean and there`s even a chance for gusts to approach
gale force for a few hours. SCA conds may be realized on the other
waters mainly on Sunday morning as gusts approach 25kt. SCA conds
should persist on the ocean at least into Sunday evening.
SCA conds are possible on ocean waters with marginal NE gusts and 5
ft seas Tuesday into Wednesday. Sub SCA conditions are expected on
non ocean waters early to mid next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
0.25 to 1.25 inches of rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. Poor drainage/minor nuisance flooding is possible in
the afternoon and night. No hydrologic impacts are otherwise
expected through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be relatively high over the next few days
with a new moon occurring on Saturday. A northerly wind flow
should help mitigate tidal piling in most spots, however
guidance still suggests that minor coastal flooding will be
possible with the morning high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday.
The better chances of widespread minor flooding will be across
the back bays of Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, and along
Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester Counties. Isolated
minor flooding may still be possible across lower NY Harbor and
along parts of the north-facing shores of Long Island.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...