000
FXUS61 KOKX 132200
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
600 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will begin to retreat away from the region tonight.
Low pressure will push offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast to
our south Saturday night into Sunday morning. Another area of
low pressure will develop offshore early next week, tracking
northeast of the region Tuesday. High pressure will then build
in from the west mid to late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes were made to the forecast through
tonight, with only minor adjustments to capture current obs and
trends. A deamplifying ridge axis will cross the area tonight,
moving offshore around daybreak Saturday. The surface high
pressure that has remained in place will begin to retreat and
weaken as a low pressure system draws closer from the Midwest.
As far as the sensible weather goes, should be another quiet
and dry night. Clouds will begin to increase in coverage and
lower as moisture increases from the approaching system,
especially after midnight. However, any rain from the weekend
system looks to hold off until after daybreak Saturday. The
increasing clouds may make for a tricky low temperature forecast
tonight. Temperatures should fall quickly this evening under
mostly clear skies initially, but the increasing cloud cover
will dampen any continued cooling effects overnight. Lows were
increased a degree or two in spots, but should be mainly in the
40s away from the coasts and near 50 degrees near the city and
along the immediate coasts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure shifting through Indiana and Ohio transfers energy to a
new low center off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday, which then
passes to our south Saturday night into Sunday morning. The storm
then shifts NE thereafter as it strengthens. We should be spared of
the heaviest rainfall as the storm center should track fairly well
SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. Enhancement of rainfall may still
however occur due to frontogenetic forcing nearby and perhaps some
upper jet streak lift. Still, rain amounts are expected to fall
short of flash flood guidance. See the hydrology section below for
more details. Rain chances will gradually increase throughout
the day Saturday, reaching a peak in coverage and intensity late
Saturday afternoon and evening. The clouds and rain will make
for a rather chilly day, with highs reaching the mid 50s for
most spots. Temperatures will likely begin to fall later in the
day as rainfall intensity increases and a stronger northeast
wind develops.
Rain chances end into Sunday morning, and the entire day could
potentially be dry for most of the area. A northerly flow
through the mid levels will help reduce moisture, although some
lingering showers or drizzle are possible early in the day.
Some clearing of skies may occur early in the day, however cloud
cover should increase again into the afternoon. The northerly
pressure gradient will produce a somewhat breezy day, and high
temperatures end up averaging only around 60 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period starts off a bit unsettled early next week as
one area of low pressure departs and another develops offshore,
deepening as it pulls away to the north and east Monday into
Tuesday. Meanwhile, the H5 trough axis over the Eastern US remains
just west of the local region as global ensembles retrograde the
upper low over New England farther south and west. Troughing lifts
out by midweek as surface high pressure centered over the Central US
gradually translates east.
The tightened pressure gradient from the deepening low early week
will allow for a bit of an elevated NE flow. Gusts could
occasionally top 20 or 25 mph, particularly Tuesday afternoon. While
not a washout, rain chances linger both Monday and Tuesday with the
upper low overhead and elongated surface low pressure just offshore.
Conditions should largely dry by Wednesday as high pressure begins
to take over and westerly flow becomes established. Temperatures
average below normal to start, with highs in the 50s and lower 60s
Mon and Tue, before returning close to normal by the middle of the
week. With only subtle adjustments, followed the national blend of
models for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds into the region, becoming MVFR to
IFR on Saturday with rain.
NNW winds will be near 10 kt through this afternoon. Direction
could back more to the NW during the afternoon. Speeds then
start to diminish to under 10 kt toward sunset. Ceilings will
increase in coverage and lower overnight, although any
restrictions should hold off until after 12Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys may be off by a couple of hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday and Sunday: Periods of rain developing Saturday along
with MVFR to IFR restrictions. N to NW winds 5-10 kts Saturday
will settle out of the NE by Saturday night and increase to
10-20 kts, gusting near 20-25 kt at times. Winds shifting N on
Sunday as rain diminishes, however MVFR to IFR ceilings will
remain.
Monday: Chance of rain showers with MVFR possible.
Tuesday: Chance of rain. MVFR/IFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
With high pressure in control through tonight, winds and seas will
remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters. Winds and
seas then increase Saturday into Sunday as a storm takes shape and
passes to the south of the waters Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Winds and seas increase to SCA thresholds late Saturday
night on the ocean and there`s even a chance for gusts to approach
gale force for a few hours. SCA conditions should be realized
across the western portions of Long Island Sound and New York
Harbor for a few hours Sunday morning. A Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for the impacted areas from late Saturday night
into Sunday. Seas will remain elevated near 5 feet across the
ocean, where the advisory runs later. Visibility 1 to 3 nautical
miles from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night in periods
of light to moderate rain.
SCA conds are possible on ocean waters with marginal NE gusts and 5
ft seas Tuesday into Wednesday. Sub SCA conditions are expected on
non ocean waters early to mid next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
0.25" to 1.25" of rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. The highest totals are forecast to occur along
the southern half of the forecast area, stretching from
northeast New Jersey eastward across New York City and Long
Island. The lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut can
expect around 0.5" or less. Rainfall rates are likely to remain
below 0.5" per hour. Poor drainage/minor nuisance flooding is
possible in the afternoon and night, otherwise no hydrologic
impacts are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Astronomical tides will be relatively high over the next few days
with a new moon occurring on Saturday. A northerly wind flow
should help mitigate tidal piling in most spots, however
guidance still suggests that minor coastal flooding will be
possible with the morning high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday.
The better chances of widespread minor flooding will be across
the back bays of Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, and along
Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester Counties. Isolated
minor flooding may still be possible across lower NY Harbor and
along parts of the north-facing shores of Long Island.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 1 PM EDT
Sunday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM EDT
Sunday for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...JT/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...JC/Staarmann
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR/Staarmann
MARINE...JC/DR/Staarmann
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR/Staarmann