000
FXUS61 KOKX 140004
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
804 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will begin to retreat away from the region tonight.
Intensifying low pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast
to the south from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Another
low will develop offshore early next week, passing to the
northeast on Tuesday. High pressure will then build from the
west mid to late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
No significant changes were made to the forecast through
tonight, with only minor adjustments to capture current obs and
trends. A deamplifying ridge axis will cross the area tonight,
moving offshore around daybreak Saturday. The surface high
pressure that has remained in place will begin to retreat and
weaken as a low pressure system draws closer from the Midwest.
As far as the sensible weather goes, should be another quiet
and dry night. Clouds will begin to increase in coverage and
lower as moisture increases from the approaching system,
especially after midnight. However, any rain from the weekend
system looks to hold off until after daybreak Saturday. The
increasing clouds may make for a tricky low temperature forecast
tonight. Temperatures should fall quickly this evening under
mostly clear skies initially, but the increasing cloud cover
will dampen any continued cooling effects overnight. Lows were
increased a degree or two in spots, but should be mainly in the
40s away from the coasts and near 50 degrees near the city and
along the immediate coasts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure shifting through Indiana and Ohio transfers energy to a
new low center off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday, which then
passes to our south Saturday night into Sunday morning. The storm
then shifts NE thereafter as it strengthens. We should be spared of
the heaviest rainfall as the storm center should track fairly well
SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. Enhancement of rainfall may still
however occur due to frontogenetic forcing nearby and perhaps some
upper jet streak lift. Still, rain amounts are expected to fall
short of flash flood guidance. See the hydrology section below for
more details. Rain chances will gradually increase throughout
the day Saturday, reaching a peak in coverage and intensity late
Saturday afternoon and evening. The clouds and rain will make
for a rather chilly day, with highs reaching the mid 50s for
most spots. Temperatures will likely begin to fall later in the
day as rainfall intensity increases and a stronger northeast
wind develops.
Rain chances end into Sunday morning, and the entire day could
potentially be dry for most of the area. A northerly flow
through the mid levels will help reduce moisture, although some
lingering showers or drizzle are possible early in the day.
Some clearing of skies may occur early in the day, however cloud
cover should increase again into the afternoon. The northerly
pressure gradient will produce a somewhat breezy day, and high
temperatures end up averaging only around 60 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period starts off a bit unsettled early next week as
one area of low pressure departs and another develops offshore,
deepening as it pulls away to the north and east Monday into
Tuesday. Meanwhile, the H5 trough axis over the Eastern US remains
just west of the local region as global ensembles retrograde the
upper low over New England farther south and west. Troughing lifts
out by midweek as surface high pressure centered over the Central US
gradually translates east.
The tightened pressure gradient from the deepening low early week
will allow for a bit of an elevated NE flow. Gusts could
occasionally top 20 or 25 mph, particularly Tuesday afternoon. While
not a washout, rain chances linger both Monday and Tuesday with the
upper low overhead and elongated surface low pressure just offshore.
Conditions should largely dry by Wednesday as high pressure begins
to take over and westerly flow becomes established. Temperatures
average below normal to start, with highs in the 50s and lower 60s
Mon and Tue, before returning close to normal by the middle of the
week. With only subtle adjustments, followed the national blend of
models for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure begins to retreat away from the region
tonight. Rain with lowering cigs/vsbys expected from late Sat
morning into Sat afternoon, with IFR likely at most terminals by
mid to late afternoon if not sooner at the NYC metros.
NW-N winds less than 10 kt overnight into Sat morning will veer
NE Sat afternoon, and increase to 5-10 kt at the metro and
coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Fairly high confidence on the onset of rain and MVFR cond Sat
AM. Lower confidence on the onset of IFR conditions in the
afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday night and Sunday: Rain with MVFR/IFR cond. NE winds
10-20 kt, gusting to near 20-25 kt at times, gradually shifting
N.
Monday: Chance of rain showers. MVFR cond possible.
Tuesday: Chance of rain. MVFR/IFR cond possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With high pressure in control through tonight, winds and seas will
remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters. Winds and
seas then increase Saturday into Sunday as a storm takes shape and
passes to the south of the waters Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Winds and seas increase to SCA thresholds late Saturday
night on the ocean and there`s even a chance for gusts to approach
gale force for a few hours. SCA conditions should be realized
across the western portions of Long Island Sound and New York
Harbor for a few hours Sunday morning. A Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for the impacted areas from late Saturday night
into Sunday. Seas will remain elevated near 5 feet across the
ocean, where the advisory runs later. Visibility 1 to 3 nautical
miles from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night in periods
of light to moderate rain.
SCA conds are possible on ocean waters with marginal NE gusts and 5
ft seas Tuesday into Wednesday. Sub SCA conditions are expected on
non ocean waters early to mid next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
0.25" to 1.25" of rainfall are expected Saturday through
Saturday night. The highest totals are forecast to occur along
the southern half of the forecast area, stretching from
northeast New Jersey eastward across New York City and Long
Island. The lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut can
expect around 0.5" or less. Rainfall rates are likely to remain
below 0.5" per hour. Poor drainage/minor nuisance flooding is
possible in the afternoon and night, otherwise no hydrologic
impacts are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be relatively high over the next few days
with a new moon occurring on Saturday. A northerly wind flow
should help mitigate tidal piling in most spots, however
guidance still suggests that minor coastal flooding will be
possible with the morning high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday.
The better chances of widespread minor flooding will be across
the back bays of Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, and along
Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester Counties. Isolated
minor flooding may still be possible across lower NY Harbor and
along parts of the north-facing shores of Long Island.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 1 PM EDT
Sunday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM EDT
Sunday for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$