000
FXUS61 KOKX 141138
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
738 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast, passing south of
the region tonight into Sunday morning. Another low will develop
offshore early next week, passing to the northeast on Tuesday. High
pressure will then build from the west mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track this morning with just some minor adjustments
to reflect current observations. Otherwise, low pressure over
the Great Lakes region will gradually slide eastward today. An
associated frontal boundary will remain south of the region. As
the low moves closer to our region, it will transfer its energy
to a new low off the mid-Atlantic coast this evening, which is
then expected to pass south of the area tonight. Overall, expect
clouds to continue to increase this morning with all areas
becoming overcast by mid to late morning. Rain will gradually
overspread the region this morning, becoming likely by
afternoon. The rain will continue through much of the overnight
period, and start to end from west to east after midnight.
Rainfall amounts will generally range from a half to one inch
across much of the tri-state area. The only exception could be
across portions of Connecticut, where amounts could remain less
than a half inch. The heaviest of the rain will remain offshore.
With the combination of clouds and rain across the area today,
expect a rather chilly day with highs only in the lower and middle
50s. Lows tonight will be in 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Any left over rain should come to an end rather quickly Sunday
morning, with a mostly dry day expected. Some clearing of skies may
occur early in the day, however cloud cover should increase again
into the afternoon. The northerly pressure gradient will produce a
somewhat breezy day, with high temperatures in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the
previous forecast/NBM.
The long term period starts off a bit unsettled early next week
as one area of low pressure departs and another develops
offshore, deepening as it pulls away to the north and east
Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile, the H5 trough axis over the
Eastern US remains just west of the local region as global
ensembles retrograde the upper low over New England farther
south and west. Troughing lifts out by midweek as surface high
pressure centered over the Central US gradually translates east.
The tightened pressure gradient from the deepening low early
week will allow for a bit of an elevated NE flow. Gusts could
occasionally top 20 or 25 mph, particularly Tuesday afternoon.
While not a washout, rain chances linger both Monday and Tuesday
with the upper low overhead and elongated surface low pressure
just offshore. Conditions should largely dry by Wednesday as
high pressure begins to take over and westerly flow becomes
established. Temperatures average below normal to start, with
highs in the 50s and lower 60s Mon and Tue, before returning
close to normal by the middle of the week. With only subtle
adjustments, followed the national blend of models for this
update.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR to start the TAF period, however, rain with lowering
cigs/vsbys are expected after 15z into the early afternoon. IFR
conditions are then likely at most terminals by mid to late
afternoon if not sooner at the NYC metros. IFR in rain is
expected through at least the first half of tonight, with some
improvement expected 09-12z Sunday.
NW-N winds less than 10 kt this morning will veer NE this
afternoon, and increase to 5-10 kt at the metro and coastal
terminals. Winds back to the north tonight, then to the NW
towards Sunday morning. Wind speeds and gusts increase after 10z
Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Fairly high confidence on the onset of rain and MVFR conditions
Sat AM. Lower confidence on the onset of IFR conditions in the
afternoon. There may be a period if light and variable winds
this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: Becoming VFR. NE winds gusting 20-25kt.
Monday: Chance of rain showers. MVFR cond possible.
Tuesday: Chance of rain. MVFR/IFR cond possible.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas increase today as a storm takes shape and passes to
the south of the waters tonight and Sunday morning. Winds and seas
increase to SCA thresholds late tonight on the ocean. and will
spread to western portions of Long Island Sound and New York Harbor
for a few hours Sunday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for the impacted areas from late tonight into Sunday night.
Seas will remain elevated near 5 feet across the ocean, where the
advisory runs later. Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 3 nautical
miles this afternoon through Saturday night in periods of
light to moderate rain.
Sub SCA conditions are expected on all the area waters early to mid
next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 0.25" to just over 1.00" are expected today and
tonight. The highest totals are forecast to occur along the southern
half of the forecast area, stretching from northeast New Jersey
eastward across New York City and Long Island. Southern Connecticut
can expect around 0.5" or less. Rainfall rates are likely to remain
below 0.5" per hour. Poor drainage/minor nuisance flooding is
possible in the afternoon and night, otherwise no hydrologic impacts
are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Astronomical tides will be relatively high over the next few
days with a new moon occurring. A northerly wind flow should
help mitigate tidal piling in most spots, however guidance still
suggests that minor coastal flooding will be possible with the
morning high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday. The better
chances of widespread minor flooding will be across the back
bays of Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, and along Southern
Fairfield and Southern Westchester Counties. Isolated minor
flooding may still be possible across lower NY Harbor and along
parts of the north-facing shores of Long Island.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EDT Sunday
for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT Monday
for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/DR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...