000
FXUS61 KOKX 141720
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
120 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast, passing south of
the region tonight into Sunday morning. Another low will develop
offshore early next week, passing to the northeast on Tuesday. High
pressure will then build from the west mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with rain continuing to overspread
the area. Adjusted temperatures slightly to account for the
latest observations.
Low pressure over the Great Lakes region will gradually slide
eastward today. An associated frontal boundary will remain south
of the region. As the low moves closer to our region, it will
transfer its energy to a new low off the mid-Atlantic coast this
evening, which is then expected to pass south of the area
tonight. Overall, expect clouds to continue to increase this
morning with all areas becoming overcast by mid to late morning.
Rain will gradually overspread the region this morning,
becoming likely by afternoon. The rain will continue through
much of the overnight period, and start to end from west to east
after midnight. Rainfall amounts will generally range from a
half to one inch across much of the tri-state area. The only
exception could be across portions of Connecticut, where amounts
could remain less than a half inch. The heaviest of the rain
will remain offshore.
With the combination of clouds and rain across the area today,
expect a rather chilly day with highs only in the lower and middle
50s. Some eastern spots may near 60. Lows tonight will be in
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Any left over rain should come to an end rather quickly Sunday
morning, with a mostly dry day expected. Some clearing of skies may
occur early in the day, however cloud cover should increase again
into the afternoon. The northerly pressure gradient will produce a
somewhat breezy day, with high temperatures in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the
previous forecast/NBM.
The long term period starts off a bit unsettled early next week
as one area of low pressure departs and another develops
offshore, deepening as it pulls away to the north and east
Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile, the H5 trough axis over the
Eastern US remains just west of the local region as global
ensembles retrograde the upper low over New England farther
south and west. Troughing lifts out by midweek as surface high
pressure centered over the Central US gradually translates east.
The tightened pressure gradient from the deepening low early
week will allow for a bit of an elevated NE flow. Gusts could
occasionally top 20 or 25 mph, particularly Tuesday afternoon.
While not a washout, rain chances linger both Monday and Tuesday
with the upper low overhead and elongated surface low pressure
just offshore. Conditions should largely dry by Wednesday as
high pressure begins to take over and westerly flow becomes
established. Temperatures average below normal to start, with
highs in the 50s and lower 60s Mon and Tue, before returning
close to normal by the middle of the week. With only subtle
adjustments, followed the national blend of models for this
update.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure and its associated frontal system impact the
terminals through tonight. The system moves offshore on Sunday.
Ceilings should lower to MVFR early this afternoon and then IFR
late afternoon and evening, especially for the NYC metro and
Long Island terminals. Ceilings may not fall lower than MVFR
further inland and across SE CT. Rain will continue through the
first half of tonight before tapering off from west to east
early Sunday morning. Improvement to VFR is expected 08-12z.
N-NE winds under 10 kt to start will increase to around 10 kt
this evening for NYC metro and coastal terminals, then increase
to 10-15 kt overnight. Winds will back to the N and NW early
Sunday morning and become gusty. Gusts 20-25 kt expected into
Sunday afternoon.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for timing of lowering ceilings. IFR
conditions may be delayed by 1-2 hours from TAF.
Timing of improvement to VFR early Sunday morning could occur
1-3 hours sooner than forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Afternoon-Night: VFR. NE winds gusting 20-25kt early then
diminishing into the evening.
Monday: Mainly VFR with a slight chance of showers with MVFR.
Tuesday: Chance of showers with MVFR possible.
Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas increase today as a storm takes shape and passes to
the south of the waters tonight and Sunday morning. Winds and seas
increase to SCA thresholds late tonight on the ocean. and will
spread to western portions of Long Island Sound and New York Harbor
for a few hours Sunday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for the impacted areas from late tonight into Sunday night.
Seas will remain elevated near 5 feet across the ocean, where the
advisory runs later. Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 3 nautical
miles this afternoon through Saturday night in periods of
light to moderate rain.
Sub SCA conditions are expected on all the area waters early to mid
next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 0.25" to just over 1.00" are expected today and
tonight. The highest totals are forecast to occur along the southern
half of the forecast area, stretching from northeast New Jersey
eastward across New York City and Long Island. Southern Connecticut
can expect around 0.5" or less. Rainfall rates are likely to remain
below 0.5" per hour. Poor drainage/minor nuisance flooding is
possible in the afternoon and night, otherwise no hydrologic impacts
are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be relatively high over the next few
days with a new moon occurring. A northerly wind flow should
help mitigate tidal piling in most spots, however guidance still
suggests that minor coastal flooding will be possible with the
morning high tide cycles on Sunday and Monday. The better
chances of widespread minor flooding will be across the back
bays of Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, and along Southern
Fairfield and Southern Westchester Counties. Isolated minor
flooding may still be possible across lower NY Harbor and along
parts of the north-facing shores of Long Island.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EDT Sunday
for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT Monday
for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...BC/MW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...