000
FXUS61 KOKX 150026
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
826 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast, passing south
of the region tonight into Sunday morning. Another low
developing offshore Monday departs into Tuesday and will be
replaced by high pressure for the middle of the week. Another
frontal system will then approach for the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Secondary low along the Mid Atlantic coast becoming the primary
low this evening as rain will continue much of the night, but
gradually shifting to the south and east. The rain will
generally be light, but occasionally moderate with an additional
0.10-0.40, highest across coastal sections. By Sunday morning,
the rain should be pulling out of the area as the low moves to
the east. NE winds will ramp up to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
round 20 mph along the coast.
Lows tonight will be in the 40s for much of the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Any remaining light rain for eastern areas comes to an end
rather quickly Sunday morning, with a mostly dry day expected.
Some clearing of skies may occur early in the day, however
cloud cover should increase again into the afternoon. While
there are no PoPs in the forecast for tomorrow, an isolated
shower can`t be completely ruled out. The northerly pressure
gradient will produce a somewhat breezy day with gusts upwards
of 20-25 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A highly amplified upper flow will be featured across the Lower
48 during this time as the upper trough along the eastern
seaboard works slowly offshore, being replaced by building
heights and high pressure for the middle of the week. An amplifying
upper trough over the mid section of the country on Thursday
will then work toward the east coast for the end of the week and
into the area at the start of next weekend. While its early,
this is pointing to another wet start to a weekend. This would
be the 7th weekend in a row for Central Park to record rainfall.
Before then though, cyclonic flow and an upper trough overhead
will keep plenty of clouds in the forecast for Monday and
Tuesday. There is also a low chance of rain Monday night into
Tuesday with the possibility of a weak secondary low forming
just east of the area. It then drys out for the mid week before
a return southerly flow brings warm advection showers up the
eastern seaboard sometime on Friday. Rain then continues into
Saturday with potential secondary low development.
Monday and Tuesday will feature below normal highs by several
degrees with overnight lows near normal due to cloud cover. It
will then warm up for the mid week with plenty of sun and near
seasonable temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast, passing south
of the region tonight into Sunday morning.
Intermittent light rain will continue until late tonight, with
KBDR/KGON remaining VFR and the remaining terminals MVFR until
about 06Z. KJFK could experience some IFR cigs early on.
N-NE winds will increase to around 10 kt this evening for the NYC
metro and coastal terminals, then increase to 10-15 kt
overnight. Winds will back to the N and NW early Sunday
morning and become gusty. Gusts 20-25 kt expected into Sunday
afternoon, diminishing toward evening (21Z-22Z).
....NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled AMD likely for cigs deviating from fcst.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: VFR with diminishing NE winds.
Monday through Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Winds and seas continue to increase tonight as a low pressure
takes shape and passes to the south of the waters tonight and
Sunday morning. Winds and seas increase to SCA thresholds
tonight on the ocean and will spread to western portions of Long
Island Sound and New York Harbor through the morning hours
Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean
waters into Sunday night. Seas will remain elevated near 5 feet
across the ocean, where the advisory runs later.
Sub SCA conditions are then expected on all the area waters
early to mid next week as low pressure departs to the east and
high pressure builds in from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Storm total rainfall amounts of 0.25" to just over 1.00" are
expected through tonight. The highest totals are forecast to
occur along the southern half of the forecast area, stretching
from northeast New Jersey eastward across New York City and Long
Island. No hydrologic impacts are expected.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides will be relatively high over the next few days
with a new moon. A developing coastal low will bring offshore
winds, which should help mitigate tidal piling in most spots,
however it appears that minor coastal flooding is possible with
the morning/early afternoon high tide cycles on Sunday and
Monday. The higher chances for minor flooding benchmarks to be
exceeded across the back bays of Southern Nassau and Queens, as
well as coastal Fairfield and Westchester. A Coastal Flood
Advisory is in effect for Sunday morning/early afternoon high
tide and may also may be needed for Monday. Isolated minor
flooding is possible across southern Suffolk County as a blend
of ETSS, ESTOFS, and NYHOPS indicates several sites could just
touch or exceed minor benchmarks by a tenth or two. A coastal
flood statement has been issued for the Sunday morning/early
afternoon high tide. Water levels are currently expected to
remain below minor benchmarks across the Lower NY Harbor and
north shore of Long Island.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 2 PM EDT Sunday for
NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EDT Sunday for
NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EDT Sunday
for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM EDT Monday for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT Monday
for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DW