000
FXUS61 KOKX 150524
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
124 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast, passing south
of the region tonight into Sunday morning. Another low
developing offshore Monday departs into Tuesday and will be
replaced by high pressure for the middle of the week. Another
frontal system will then approach for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Low pressure over the Ohio Valley transfers its energy to a
developing low pressure system along the Mid-Atlantic coast
tonight. Widespread stratiform rain will continue over the
entire CWA through the evening and through the first half of the
overnight. As the secondary low developing to the south takes
over, the shield of rain will begin to pivot from a west to
east movement to a primarily northwest to southeast movement. As
the energy shifts south, the axis of heaviest rainfall should
remain along the coast, mainly Long Island and the NYC metro
where up to 1 inch of total rainfall is expected.
After midnight, the rain shield will begin to shift south
allowing for northern areas to begin to dry out followed by
areas closer to the coast. By Sunday morning, the rain should be
pulling out of the area as the low moves to the east. Lows
tonight will be in the 40s for much of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Any remaining light rain for eastern areas comes to an end
rather quickly Sunday morning, with a mostly dry day expected.
Some clearing of skies may occur early in the day, however
cloud cover should increase again into the afternoon. While
there are no PoPs in the forecast for tomorrow, an isolated
shower can`t be completely ruled out. The northerly pressure
gradient will produce a somewhat breezy day with gusts upwards
of 20-25 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A highly amplified upper flow will be featured across the Lower
48 during this time as the upper trough along the eastern
seaboard works slowly offshore, being replaced by building
heights and high pressure for the middle of the week. An amplifying
upper trough over the mid section of the country on Thursday
will then work toward the east coast for the end of the week and
into the area at the start of next weekend. While its early,
this is pointing to another wet start to a weekend. This would
be the 7th weekend in a row for Central Park to record rainfall.
Before then though, cyclonic flow and an upper trough overhead
will keep plenty of clouds in the forecast for Monday and
Tuesday. There is also a low chance of rain Monday night into
Tuesday with the possibility of a weak secondary low forming
just east of the area. It then drys out for the mid week before
a return southerly flow brings warm advection showers up the
eastern seaboard sometime on Friday. Rain then continues into
Saturday with potential secondary low development.
Monday and Tuesday will feature below normal highs by several
degrees with overnight lows near normal due to cloud cover. It
will then warm up for the mid week with plenty of sun and near
seasonable temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast, passing south
of the region tonight into Sunday morning.
Intermittent light rain should continue until late tonight
especially near the NYC metro area and the coast.
VFR at all the area terminals, however can not rule out some
brief MVFR cigs early this morning. We should then remain VFR
for all of Sunday.
N-NE winds either side of 10 kt will back more N and increase
to 10-15 kt, with most gusts holding off until late tonight or
after daybreak. Winds will then back to the N-NW early Sunday
morning and become gusty. Gusts 20-25 kt expected into Sunday
afternoon, diminishing toward evening (21Z-22Z).
....NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for brief MVFR cigs through 12z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: VFR with diminishing NE winds.
Monday through Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas continue to increase tonight as a low pressure
takes shape and passes to the south of the waters tonight and
Sunday morning. Winds and seas increase to SCA thresholds late
tonight on the ocean and will spread to western portions of
Long Island Sound and New York Harbor for a few hours Sunday
morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
impacted areas from late tonight into Sunday night. Seas will
remain elevated near 5 feet across the ocean, where the advisory
runs later.
Sub SCA conditions are then expected on all the area waters
early to mid next week as low pressure departs to the east and
high pressure builds in from the west.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts of 0.25" to just over 1.00" are expected
through tonight. The highest totals are forecast to occur along
the southern half of the forecast area, stretching from
northeast New Jersey eastward across New York City and Long
Island. Southern Connecticut can expect around 0.5" or less.
Rainfall rates are likely to remain below 0.5" per hour. Poor
drainage/minor nuisance flooding is possible this evening and
tonight, otherwise no hydrologic impacts are expected through
the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be relatively high over the next few days
with a new moon occurring this afternoon. A developing coastal low
will bring offshore winds, which should help mitigate tidal piling
in most spots, however it appears that minor coastal flooding is
possible with the morning/early afternoon high tide cycles on Sunday
and Monday. The higher chances for minor flooding benchmarks to be
exceeded across the back bays of Southern Nassau and Queens, as well
as coastal Fairfield and Westchester. A Coastal Flood Advisory has
been issued for Sunday mornings high tide and may also be needed for
Monday morning. Isolated minor flooding is possible across southern
Suffolk County as a blend of ETSS, ESTOFS, and NYHOPS indicates
several sites could just touch or exceed minor benchmarks by a tenth
or two. A coastal flood statement has been issued for the Sunday
morning/early afternoon high tide. Water levels are currently
expected to remain below minor benchmarks across the Lower NY
Harbor and north shore of Long Island.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
this afternoon for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
this afternoon for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for
NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ335-
338.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC/BG
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...