000
FXUS61 KOKX 150743
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
343 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic tracks farther offshore
today. Weak, elongated low pressure lingers off the East Coast
through Tuesday before being replaced by high pressure midweek.
Another frontal system will then approach for the end of the
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast passes near or just
southeast of the benchmark this morning as it tracks off to the
north and east. Upper trough over the Eastern US remains in place
for now, with a 500 mb low off meandering near Maine and the
Canadian Maritimes into early week.

Rain comes to an end everywhere early this morning, and while a
predominantly dry day is expected, an isolated shower can`t be
entirely ruled out. As the exiting low intensifies offshore, the
tightening pressure gradient will allow for a bit of a blustery
close to the weekend. A N/NE flow 10 to 15 mph into the
afternoon should occasionally gust 20 to 25 mph at times, before
lightening tonight.

Temperatures will be several degrees below normal for mid October,
with highs mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows into early
Monday AM bottom out in the 40s regionwide, with perhaps some upper
30s in the LI Pine Barrens and far interior should the flow remain
light.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper trough remains in place on Monday with the axis near or
just west of the region. Weak elongated surface low pressure
sits off the East Coast.

Cyclonic flow will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy through
the day. Impulses swinging around the base of the trough may
allow for a few scattered showers to develop, before the trough
begins to deamplify and lift out Monday night. Though local rain
chances will be low at any one time and place, best chance of
seeing a few spotty showers will be across Long Island and SE
CT Monday afternoon into early evening. Temperatures remain
seasonably cool; highs once again near 60, with lows in the 40s
to lower 50s. Used a blend of the bias corrected guidance for
this update.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Not too much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the
NBM and the current forecast.

The period starts off with cyclonic flow and an upper trough
overhead which is expected to keep plenty of clouds in the
forecast for Monday night into Tuesday. There is also a low chance
of rain during this period. with the possibility of a weak secondary
low forming just east of the area.

By mid week, it drys out Wednesday and Thursday as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft build over the area.

An amplifying upper trough over the mid section of the country on
Thursday will then work toward the east coast for the end of the
week and into the area at the start of next weekend. This is
expected to bring another round of precipitation to the region to
end the week as southerly flow brings warm advection showers up the
eastern seaboard sometime on Friday. The rain then continues into
Saturday with potential secondary low development. While its
still early, it appears this would be the 7th weekend in a row for
Central Park to record rainfall.

Tuesday will feature below normal highs due to cloud cover. It
will then warm up for the mid week with plenty of sun and near
seasonable temperatures. Additional cloud cover and rain chances
will once bring below normal temperatures next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low pressure will move east of the region today.

VFR at all the area terminals. While its mostly dry this morning,
there are some light rain showers still around the region. These
showers should move east of NYC by 10z. Expecting a mostly dry
period with VFR conditions for today and tonight.

N-NE winds either side of 10 kt will back more N and increase
to 10-15 kt, with most gusts holding off until after daybreak. Winds
will then back to the N-NW early this morning and become gusty.
Gusts 20-25 kt expected into this afternoon, diminishing toward
evening (21Z-22Z).

 ....NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for brief MVFR cigs through 12z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: VFR with diminishing NE winds.
Monday through Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Increasing northerly winds this morning will lead to SCA gusts
25 to 30 kt on all waters into early to mid afternoon. Expanded
Small Craft Advisory to include eastern LI Sound and Peconic
and Gardiners Bays as gusts likely peak around 25 kt for several
hours into early afternoon. Extended the SCA for all non ocean
waters until 4 PM when confidence is higher in decreased gusts,
though its possible conditions abate prior to this. Seas remain
elevated near 5 feet across the ocean into tonight, where the
advisory runs until 6Z Monday.

Thereafter, sub SCA conditions are then expected on all the
area waters early to mid next week as low pressure departs to
the east and high pressure builds in from the west. The next
chance of SCA conditions will be next weekend as low pressure
passes over the waters.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides will be relatively high over the next few days
with a new moon occurring this afternoon. A deepening coastal
low will bring offshore winds, which should help mitigate tidal
piling in most spots, however it appears that minor coastal
flooding is possible with the morning/early afternoon high tide
cycles today and Monday.

The higher chances for minor flooding benchmarks to be exceeded
across the back bays of Southern Nassau and Queens, as well as
coastal Fairfield and Westchester. A Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in place for this morning`s high tide and may also be
needed for Monday morning.

Isolated minor flooding is possible across southern Suffolk
County as a blend of ETSS, ESTOFS, and NYHOPS indicates several
sites could just touch or exceed minor benchmarks by a tenth or
two. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect here for this
morning/early afternoon`s high tide. Water levels are currently
expected to remain below minor benchmarks across the Lower NY
Harbor and north shore of Long Island.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     this afternoon for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     this afternoon for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for
     NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR