000
FXUS61 KOKX 151738
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
138 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic tracks farther offshore
this afternoon. Weak, elongated low pressure lingers off the
East Coast through Tuesday before being replaced by high
pressure midweek. Another frontal system will then approach for
the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track this afternoon.
An upper trough remains over the Eastern US remains, with a 500
mb low off meandering near Maine and the Canadian Maritimes
into early week. Deepening low pressure continues to track well
offshore.
A sprinkle cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but think the
rest of the day will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds. A
N/NE flow 10 to 15 mph into the afternoon should occasionally
gust 20 to 25 mph at times, before lightening tonight.
Temperatures will be several degrees below normal for mid October,
with highs mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows into early
Monday AM bottom out in the 40s region-wide, with perhaps some
upper 30s in the LI Pine Barrens and far interior should the
flow remain light.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough remains in place on Monday with the axis near or
just west of the region. Weak elongated surface low pressure
sits off the East Coast.
Cyclonic flow will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy through
the day. Impulses swinging around the base of the trough may
allow for a few scattered showers to develop, before the trough
begins to deamplify and lift out Monday night. Though local rain
chances will be low at any one time and place, best chance of
seeing a few spotty showers will be across Long Island and SE
CT Monday afternoon into early evening. Temperatures remain
seasonably cool; highs once again near 60, with lows in the 40s
to lower 50s. Used a blend of the bias corrected guidance for
this update.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Not too much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the
NBM and the current forecast.
The period starts off with cyclonic flow and an upper trough
overhead which is expected to keep plenty of clouds in the
forecast for Monday night into Tuesday. There is also a low chance
of rain during this period. with the possibility of a weak secondary
low forming just east of the area.
By mid week, it drys out Wednesday and Thursday as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft build over the area.
An amplifying upper trough over the mid section of the country on
Thursday will then work toward the east coast for the end of the
week and into the area at the start of next weekend. This is
expected to bring another round of precipitation to the region to
end the week as southerly flow brings warm advection showers up the
eastern seaboard sometime on Friday. The rain then continues into
Saturday with potential secondary low development. While its
still early, it appears this would be the 7th weekend in a row for
Central Park to record rainfall.
Tuesday will feature below normal highs due to cloud cover. It
will then warm up for the mid week with plenty of sun and near
seasonable temperatures. Additional cloud cover and rain chances
will once bring below normal temperatures next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will remain east of the region today.
VFR expected at all the terminals through the TAF period.
N/NW winds 10-15kt will continue to gust 20-25 kt through the
afternoon, diminishing toward evening (21Z-22Z). Tonight, winds
remain from the NW around 10kt or less. Winds shift more NNW by
Monday morning remaining around 10 kt.
....NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional through the early afternoon. Occasional
gusts higher than forecast can not be ruled out.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday through Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible in SHRA.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA gusts 25-30 kt likely this afternoon on the ocean and around
25 kt on the non-ocean waters. No changes made to the SCA. Winds
should diminish below 25 kt on the non-ocean by 4 pm. Elsewhere,
winds should fall below SCA levels this evening. Seas remain
elevated near 5 feet across the ocean into tonight, where the
advisory runs until 6Z Monday.
Thereafter, sub SCA conditions are then expected on all the
area waters early to mid next week as low pressure departs to
the east and high pressure builds in from the west. The next
chance of SCA conditions will be next weekend as low pressure
passes over the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Astronomical tides will be relatively high over the next few days
with a new moon occurring on Saturday. Offshore winds will help
mitigate tidal piling in most spots.
High tide has passed with water levels continuing to recede
below minor flooding benchmarks. Additional statements may be
needed for the Monday morning/early afternoon high tide cycle,
specifically for the south shore back bays and coastal Fairfield
and Westchester.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BC/DR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...